Welcome to the Tally Room’s guide to the 2024 Queensland state election. This guide includes comprehensive coverage of each seat’s history, geography, political situation and results of the 2020 election, as well as maps and tables showing those results.
This entire guide is now unlocked for everyone to access.
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Table of contents:
Legislative Assembly seat profiles
Seat profiles have been produced for all 93 Legislative Assembly electoral districts. You can use the following navigation to click through to each seat’s profile.
Contact
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@Nether Portal There’s at least 2 prepoll booths per electorate, but they’re in weird places and the ECQ has drastically reduced joint booths, so there’s going to be a stack of absentee votes.
Looking at Whitsunday, where the EVCs are Proserpine and Cannonvale. The other half of the electorate is northern Mackay, which has none. But slightly more than half of the population of the Whitsunday electorate are closer to the Mackay EVCs than Proserpine.
@Real Talk
QPS Crime Rate statistics for Brisbane Central:
2024: 22,200.704 (down from 30377 last year)
QPS Crime Rate statistics for Cairns:
2024: 19732.472 (down from 26,259 last year)
All statistics above sourced from https://mypolice.qld.gov.au/queensland-crime-statistics/
There’s a slight error in your crime statistics. You’ve used the Crime Rates data to compare 2023 and 2024. The problem is that you’re comparing apples and oranges – the figures for 2023 are from January to December; the figures for 2024 are from January to September. You’re comparing 12 months against 9 months because they’re calendar years.
If you look at the Advanced tab to get monthly plot points, you’ll note that offences are cyclical, peaking around Christmas. So we haven’t got the results for the highest crime quartile yet.
@Caleb As I’ve noted before, switching between OPV and CPV was mostly a Labor thing. 🙂
I’m agnostic on it, because the vote transfer from the minor parties on the right and the minor parties on the left are roughly the same.
The problem however is that we have different, and confusing, differences between State and Local Government voting, and differences from council to council. There are four different ways of voting in Local Government elections, depending on where you live. Ipswich has it’s own special way of voting which is literally the only way that would produce the result it has.
When you have State elections and Council elections on the same day with two different sets of rules it does not lead to a fairer electoral system. The State election on the October 26th also has two Council elections tacked on.
For consistencies sake, let’s settle on OPV or CPV for all of Queensland, divided or undivided Councils, abolish the crooked system in Ipswich entirely and make it easier for people to vote without increasing the risk of accidental error.
@SCart Banning property developers but allowing lawyers and lobbyists to donate is perverse. The night before Yvette D’Ath introduced legislation that directly affected the No Win, No Fee brigade the same people held a fundraiser for her in Parliament House.
My suggested solution is 1) there are limits on how much you can donate; 2) you have to be on the electoral roll to donate; 3) the ECQ (or AEC) provides a minimum amount of expenditure per candidate to encourage participation for signage, HTVs, and a limited communication expenditure which is expensed through the ECQ or AEC.
So no companies, no organisations, no businesses, no overseas money, no superannuation funds, no unions. If you want to donate money you can reach into your own pocket instead of someone else’s. And set up a public contact register so that individuals that have direct dealings with politicians in a non-constituency role can’t donate during that term of government.
I made a slightly longer submission to the Joint Standing Committtes into the past two elections.
@Mark Yore
Thank you for that. I wasn’t aware.
The point remains that the crime rate in Brisbane Central/McConnel is higher than in Cairns, which is supported by the data. It is purposely misleading and suits only one side’s narrative to refer to the seat with the lower crime rate as “crime-ridden”
@Mark Yore
I was comparing crime rates (averaged out so as to be comparable), rather than raw data. I accept your point that the fourth quarter will raise the averages somewhat.
Mark Yore
The problem with Optional Preferential Voting is self centred political parties just advocating “Just Vote 1” At the 2021 Council election ( Moreton Bay Regional Council) I had half a dozen Mayoral candidates all in effect “if I can’t be Mayor I don’t give a stuff” That included the candidate I supported. I told them before the 2024 Council election that unless their HTV did not allocate preferences then I would not be handing it out.
I have never had any difficulty in de ing who to put last on this occasion yje following order One Nation, Marijuana and Greens, I have normally had little difficult in picking Number 1, the difficulty is picking between the two major parties. On this occasion I opted for a good local member ALP’s Chris Whiting Even though I hope the ALP loses government.
I know this has a lack of logic but the alternative was just as illogical.
I favour both Compulsory Voting and Compulsory Preferential Voting.
@AA those people were alreaqdy voting for him or the greens anyway. thats just like saying the coalitions policies are popular with coal minig seats
Here’s the problem with Preference voting:
O ne candidate might have 45% of the primary vote, if they’re up against 15 candidates, the other perso with 25% wins because some voters in the other 13 parties, puts Mr 45% at #14 and Ms 25% at #13.
How is that fair or representative?
My opinion, a #2 preference is worth half a vote [at best!] right down to a #14 preference being worth a 14th of a vote, and so on.
@Gympie almost always if a candidate gets 45% they will win. Look at Higgins in 2019 vs 2022, the Liberal vote dropped to below 45% in 2022 which is why Labor won it.
The problem that I have with compulsory preferential voting is that it breeds complacency. Labor (from a primary vote of 32%) are able to form a majority government because they know the Greens preferences will just fall into place. Why shouldn’t they fight for those preferences and it actually empowers the minor parties as they can direct or not direct preferences if they want want to. Also, if both major party candidates are loathsome, why should one of them benefit from my vote if I don’t want them to have it.
We now have OPV for the Senate – why not the other houses of Parliament?
Gympie,
The classic example of preference voting is the Victorian Division of McMillan in 1972 Federal election.
The Country Party’s Arthur Hewson was elected with 16.6% of the primary vote.
The unsuccessful Labor Party candidate received 45.8% of the primary vote.
Such a result is unlikely now. Party names are printed on the ballot paper, so voters are less reliant on HTVs.
@ Nether Portal
Good point, how high the Coalition primary needs to be depends on the seat. In more affluent seats it needs to be higher. For example in seats like Higgins it needs to be as close to 45-46% to win. This is because there is less right wing minor parties. The Greens flow to Labor is disciplined while right wing minor parties are much less. In the state seat of Prahran in 2014 the Libs got 44% primary and lost while the federal seat of Richmond in 2004, Larry Anthony still got 45.76% primary and lost. Katie Allen got a better Liberal primary in Higgins in 2022 than the LNP got in Longman where they only got 38.2% and still won despite Labor getting a higher primary than in Higgins. There is a higher right wing minor party vote in Longman and labor gets a less disciplined flow of preferences in Longman.
@Nimalan seats like Longman have higher One Nation votes than Greens votes so yes the LNP can win from a lower primary vote there. In Higgins they need a higher primary though because of the Greens.
The Liberals got over 45% of the primary vote in Bradfield (45.1%) and so they won, though the teal, Labor and Greens votes were also lower there.
Have a look at the Balwyn North booth in Kooyong. The Liberals got 51.6% of the TCP vote there because the Liberal vote was 45.4%, the teal vote was 36.2%, the Labor vote was 9.3% and the Greens vote was 4.2%.
@ NP
Yes the wealthier seats have a lower vote for ONP, UAP etc which is one the primary vote for Libs need to be higher. If we consider Kerryn Phelps as a Teal, then Dave Sharma lost in the by-election when his primary vote was only 43.8% but at the general election in 2019 it was 48.5% and he won. That is one problem that Labor had in May 2022 their primary vote in seats like Longman, Petrie, Forde etc was way too low to win. In a seat with much lower Green primary vote Labor needs at least 37-38% primary to win. Your Balwyn North example show that the primary vote needs to be high for Libs to have a chance to win the seat
@Watson Watch – Prahran 2014 is still remarkable – Liberal losing with 44.81% to a 3rd placed Green with under 25%.
Similar dynamics are possible in QLD, though not sure what seats that will happen in this time. If Greens are on track to win Greenslopes or Miller I think they’ll get closer to 30% primary, and Clayfield/Moggill/Ferny Grove etc. seems to be off the table (Greens have doubled down on “6 winnable seats” – Maiwar, South Brisbane, McConnell, Cooper, Greenslopes, Miller)
@BNJ the exit poll (note that these should be taken with a grain of salt) had McConnel as an LNP gain. I still think the Greens will pick up at least one seat, probably either Cooper or McConnel, but maybe selecting better candidates in the inner-city has paid off for the LNP. I would still be shocked if they did win those seats, and if they win Maiwar (theoretically possible but extremely unlikely) then I would say they would regain Ryan federally.
I don’t get why moderate inner-city voters didn’t swing to Tim Nicholls’ LNP. While there were still right-wingers in the party Nicholls is an inner-city moderate while Palaszczuk is an outer suburbs moderate. Perhaps it was Labor’s scare campaign that turned voters away, as they kept tying the LNP to One Nation despite them not even having a formal preference deal.
Tim Nicholls is relatively moderate but had the stench of Newman in 2017. You could argue that he’s still very much of that era and while it won’t work statewide I thought Greens could levy a successful campaign against him in Clayfield on that basis. But they are half assing every campaign outside the top 6 – which I think is a bad idea given the overlaps with seats they need to retain federally
Perhaps 42.5% of the PV could be the new Simple majority in seats where there are more than, say, 4 candidate?
Candidates wining with under 30% PV, bottom line is at least 70% didn’t want them when give the choice.
The Democrats achieved a 2pp of 47.6% from a primary of 13.6% in Cunningham in 1990.
Was that the closest the democrats have been to winning a lower house seat?
@ Up the Dragons i think Mayo in 1998
I’m predicting a 2012 style wipeout labor can win maybe 20 seats maximum
Atmosphere among staff at prepoll yesterday was funereal.
That’s in a supposedly safe Labor seat
My opinion, Labor just hasn’t got the collective intelligence or ability to govern Qld.
They may or may not do better seat wise, but I reckon there will be a fair few sudden retirements in Federal Labor in the days after Oct. 26.
@ gympie why does Labor lack the collective intelligence to govern Queensland but the lnp does? Since 1989 Labor has been elected on all but 2 occasions. Did the voters get it wrong multiple times.?
1974 and 2012 have shown the qld electorate is very volatile. A lot of people in politics are very smart and lots of times very determined. I presume Mr Newman fitted in this category but he overplayed his hand. At the time of a pending change of a comfortable victory for one side it is easy to dump on the other side. If you looked at Vic 1972 Nsw 1978 or SA 1990? Qld 1957 or 1974 you would day the other side could never win. Sa and qld had a gerrymander named after them. But such events are distant memories.
Vic 1992
Tim Nicholls was there as part of the Newman government as was the opposition leader…. what did they counsel privately? But they stayed from Victory to defeat. “Evil triumphs when good men/women do nothing”
@ gympie why does Labor lack the collective intelligence to govern Queensland but the lnp does?
Because most of them got there by some sort of Affirmative Action and/or were Political and Union staffers.
In other words, bureaucrats.
LNP have got a few too, but are mostly people who have done well outside of an organisation.
Mark Yore, I think you have a valid point about the inconsistency of voting systems between different levels of government making it confusing for voters. If reducing confusion and accidental errors is the aim, then there should be as few different voting systems as possible for maximum consistency and familiarity.
There is one omission from your analysis though – federal election voting. If state and council voting methods were consistent with each other, but not consistent with federal voting, then voters would still be grappling with at least three voting systems – federal HoR, federal Senate and the state/council system. And that’s before we consider whether all councils will want to have single-member divisions or whether some want to be undivided or have multi-member divisions.
I’m not a fan of Victoria’s imposition of single member divisions on all local councils for two reasons. Firstly, because I think it goes too far in reducing choice in the aim of consistency, as even federally there are both single-member electorates (HoR) and multi-member electorates (Senate). Secondly, the massive differences in area and population density between councils mean that some are better off with reasonably-sized multi-member divisions rather than miniscule single-member divisions.
At the end of the day, Queensland can change its own voting rules, but cannot change federal voting rules by itself. So for maximum consistency and simplicity while still preserving the option for multi-member council divisions, all single-member electorates should follow the federal HoR in CPV, and all multi-member electorates should follow the federal Senate in OPV with a minimum number of preferences filled out. Then a voter only really has to be familiar with two systems.
The senate is pr not opv. A ticket vote is allowed voting above the line. Pr should exist for multiple vacancies on the councils either in wards of 3 or more or across the council.all elected at once.
In Qld the current system is to list preferences. The suggested change promise is opv where you have to number one square but can number more if you wish. The way to go is cpv with a savings provision based on voter intention being identified.
Mick
The Senate is OPV even above the line as you only need to number 6 boxes. You can leave out teams if you want to.
The voting system is being changed to opv in qld because the lnp assumes they will poll the highest primary and this is to their advantage. The requirement is for the system to be fair Not advantage one party or another. What may .advantage one party at a given point in time may not benefit them in a year’s time. What is uap onp and kap merged into one party? This would disadvantage the lnp I’d they polled well.
I consider the best way to go is to instruct voters to number all squares but allow a savings provision based on identified voter intention to reduce informal voting
Opv means you need to number one square only.in the senate there is a list system but the actual counting system is you get representation in accordance with yr vote proportion ie pr. Exists for tas and act also.
Senate 6 to be elected need 1/7 of vote plus 1 to get 1 seat.
For lower houses of parliament there is one 1 member to be elected for each electorate. If you get 50.001% of the vote after preferences if you get 49.999% you lose
Should read after 50.001% you win
1 seat for Labor now, Only Woodridge will be a retain. Poor debate by Miles, LNP supermajority like ALP 2021 in WA
Labor leader will either be Dick or Fentiman. Miles probably won’t need to resign as leader since he’ll likely lose his seat. Fentiman would be the better leader because Dick is kinda one. Dick is as safe as houses but Fentiman not so much. Unseating her could be helpful for the Libs. Fentiman may try and come back again in 2028 like she did last time so she could theoretically lead from outside parliament.
@Daniel T wrong. 40% swing in Woodridge, that electorate is crime-ridden and anti-woke. God-Emperor Crisafvlli has promised adult time for adult crime and the polls are all biased for the left, the statewide TPP will be 75-25. Also Labor’s going to only get 5 votes in Gladstone (all woke union transfers from Brisbane) because it’s regional and everyone there eats coal for breakfast, lunch and dinner and Miles wants to steal their food source.
Advantage is a matter of perspextive. Labor changed it to job to benefit themselves when libs and bats were seperatr then changed it back when the greens became a threat to themselves
I reckon Labor are gonna lose Gladstone.
If they lose Dick and Fentiman who leads then?
This has happened for a long time with both parties
Eg.John.Howard studied law at uni worked as a solicitor less than 5 years
Contested Drommoyne.excuse spelling … serious seeking.seat after that elected 1974 defeated 2007
B. Bishop senator than mp. For ages 30 years +
Retired
Damian
Brisbane fares were very high, especially for those coming in from outer suburbs. And Nether – no those who benefit are the battlers – some who might have swung LNP or even One Nation. Not sure if the 50C fares will have stopped the landslide to the LNP, but it will help
And no they are NOT the greens voters – except for some students in the inner city.
tbh i agree with capped fares but it should have been something more reasonable like $2.50 50c is just labor spending taxpayers money sandbagging seats
I think Labor will hold at least six seats, one seat is a massive stretch. If Labor lost every seat that would be the second time in history that a major party had no seats in a Parliament (the first was the first NT general election) so I highly doubt it, plus it would beat Mark McGowan’s record at the 2021 WA state election which was a once in a generation feat.
man i cant wait for next saturday to bad i will be overseas and cant watch it on tv might have to try and streamit
@dark
Just because Labor did.the wrong thing they did it in nsw too. Does not justify changing it back for political advantage. The voting system should be beyond that. How about we have a voting system electing 2 members of parliament for each geographical electorate and use pr quota is 33.33% so probably even Gregory would have 1 alp and 1 lnp
This would probably ensure even numbers in parliament unless one.side or other got 66.66% of the vote. Don’t worry I am not serious but this shows how a voting system can be misused.
Opinions are like bottoms. Everyone has one, and sometimes they stink.
Respectfully, Daniel, I think you are letting your biases cloud your judgement.
No credible polling or reports anywhere indicate what you predict will come close to reality.
Normally you have good takes and I try to listen to a variety of voices that I may not necessary agree with. To be as consistently belligerent as you are with your ever-evolving prophecies of doom and gloom is either a sign of massive psephological gonads, or delusion.
To be fair to you, there is still time for your prediction to bear some fruit. A heck of a lot needs to break your way, but to paraphrase the great philosopher Lloyd Christmas, “there is a chance”.
@John The difference in fares, and the proposed school lunches, is from the mining royalties, not from the tax payers. An important distinction.
John, ABC news Youtube Live steam (news), That is where you watch the coverage