Welcome to the Tally Room’s guide to the 2024 Queensland state election. This guide includes comprehensive coverage of each seat’s history, geography, political situation and results of the 2020 election, as well as maps and tables showing those results.
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Table of contents:
Legislative Assembly seat profiles
Seat profiles have been produced for all 93 Legislative Assembly electoral districts. You can use the following navigation to click through to each seat’s profile.
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Prison reform/ crime treatment requires adequate classification system
Children in Qld who stab people to death aren’t going to turn into responsible adults once they turn 17.
Other people jailed for white collar crime should be protected while being locked up with them, though.
That type of Prison Reform was what caused the 1983 Coalition split, according to an Oral History interview that former Greenslopes MLA Bill Hewitt did not long before he died.
Prison Reform will turn a predatory psychopath into a model citizen is one of the hoary shibboleths of the Loony Left going back to the 60s.
Of course it never even happened once, and the many victims are just embarrassing evidence to be swept under the nearest carpet.
I still haven’t got an answer as to what Crusifulli will do if unreported crime increases during his term as premier.
@Nimalan, outside the Jewish, Muslims, some Christian Arabs, some Christian Right and the Green Left, most Australians are actually indifferent on the Gaza Issue as recent opinion polling suggest a majority have no opinion on the protest and surprisingly a slight majority supports Albanese handling on the taking a more balance position (even most Coalition voters) which indicates Peter Dutton cannot just sway Middle Anglo Australia by being fervently Pro-Israel but rather other issues.
Real Talk, how would it be “unreported” if we don’t know it happened?
I will be voting tomorrow.
@ Marh
I do agree with you analysis. I do think the majority of people in Australia are more neutral. For example a Vietnamese Australian in Fraser and a Greek Orthodox Australian in Cooper is not likely to swing to the Greens or Libs on this issue. The Green Left will be voting for the Greens/Socialists anyway and the Christian Right (Pentecostals) would be reliable Liberal preferencing anyway. Dutton’s stance will not hurt him in Middle Anglo Australia but does not really benefit him either. While people are concerned about the violence and deaths many Australians do not want to be seen as chearleading for one side. What this conflict has done though is actually reverse a potential realignment it has made the Libs more popular in Dover Heights (Wentworth) and less popular in Meadow Heights (Calwell). Previously, many commentators felt the opposite will be the trend
@Daniel T I simply ask because somehow some people believe crime statistics – which are down, according to credible sources – are actually not decreasing because of the unreported crimes, which are apparently up. If Crusafulli is pledging to resign if crime is going down, we have the right to know whether unreported crimes are going to be included in that pledge.
I meant to say: If Crusafulli is pledging to resign if crime is increasing
Actually Gympie, many former prisoners have turned their lives around. There’s an entire statistic called the rate of recidivism that measures whether those convicted of crimes reoffend, and it isn’t 100%. Some people have this crazy notion that the justice system should not just be purely about punishing people to make society feel good, but also about reducing the rate of recidivism so that we have a safer society in future.
As Scart pointed out on the federal election thread, here in Queensland the state leaders are more popular than their federal counterparts.
I would rank them (in terms of popularity in Queensland, first is most popular and last is least popular):
1. Crisafulli — very popular (never had a bad opinion poll; the only other recent party leader I can think of who never got a single net negative rating in an opinion is Gladys Berejiklian when she was Premier of NSW, she was very popular during COVID too)
2. Dutton — average, preferred over Albo but still has some baggage especially in parts of Brisbane
3. Miles — very unpopular (more unpopular than Palaszczuk, never led as preferred Premier)
4. Albo — very unpopular (more unpopular than Miles)
I actually applaud the fact that someone arguing the ontological evil of murder is for once apparently being consistent about it in regards to the country that’s carrying out a genocide. Most of the grrrr tough on crime lot couldn’t care less about it. A lot of them really like it in fact.
@ FL
Is Albo carrying out Genocide in Australia?
Anyway, we’re 11 days out from the election. Here’s what’s making news on the campaign trail:
* In the unlikely event of a hung parliament, Premier Steven Miles says he would rather David Crisafulli’s LNP form a minority government than Labor govern with minor parties and/or independents like they did in 2015.
* Katter’s Australian Party is advocating for rural issues, introducing castle law (for guns, just like castle law in the US), banning abortion, tougher crime policies (“bush sentencing”) and allowing parents to use corporal punishment,
* Dr. Paul Williams, a political commentator from Griffith University, predicts that the LNP will win an absolute majority but that KAP will retain all four of its seats, including Mirani, and that One Nation will just fall short in Keppel. He also doubts that any other independents will be elected (besides Sandy Bolton being re-elected in Noosa).
* James Ashby, Pauline Hanson’s chief of staff and the One Nation candidate for Keppel, is leading the social media race in Keppel, with significantly more likes on social media platforms than LNP candidate Nigel Hutton and Labor MP Brittany Lauga.
* Steven Miles is promising free school lunches if Labor is re-elected, though many see this as a desperate plea.
* The Betoota Advocate continues to be biased in its supposedly satirical articles, deciding not to dare criticise Labor but happily criticise the LNP.
Thoughts?
I was really just alluding to Israel but since Albo is aiding and abetting it, sure. Dutton’s actively cheerleading it and hoping to expand our complicity.
For the sake of remaining somewhat on topic my point isn’t really to argue the merits of having crime statistics, annihilating entire nations of people or allowing yourself to be used in such a campaign but to illustrate that the ‘youth crime debate’, such as it is, is really just another case of crime being a proxy of racial grievance, usually white racial grievance.
Tourism is a big deal in the coastal parts of Keppel, if Ashby has a plan he might win.
It would depend on Labor preferencing him over the LNP, because I can’t see Brittany makingt the top 2.
@Furtive Lawngnome October 15, 2024 at 2:06 pm
I was really just alluding to Israel but since Albo is aiding and abetting it, sure. Dutton’s actively cheerleading it and hoping to expand our complicity.
Sure, but Dutton isn'[t the PM and he’s not making Foreign Policy.
All Albo had to do was be honest, but it was a bridge too far.
Not sure that having more likes and follows in one electorate is more noteworthy than ensuring disadvantaged kids who turn up to school are fed and able to learn, but it’s your faux news column, not mine.
@Real Talk how is any of it faux news (faux means fake if you know French)? This is from ABC News, which tends to lean left.
Also, it does somewhat matter how active a candidate or MP is on social media, since young people often get information and news from social media (e.g the 7 News Instagram account vs 7 News on TV).
Wilson:
Actually Gympie, many former prisoners have turned their lives around. There’s an entire statistic called the rate of recidivism that measures whether those convicted of crimes reoffend, and it isn’t 100%.
How could those stats have any meaning for murderers and rapists, unles it was measured over the crimina’l’s life span?
Many murderers have bee released and gone on to kill again.
Why take the chance, unless you’ve got something to prove and other people’s lives are like taws in a game of marbles?
The deliberate use of selective adjectives to describe the activities of various parties activities is rather telling. It’s quite fine if all you’re doing is editoralising, rather than presenting opinions as news.
If social media decided elections, there’ll be no need to vote.
@Darcy “The Guardian is reporting that Steven Miles will hold a Plebiscite on Nuclear energy if re-elected, preferably on the same day as the federal election.”
I think he should be careful what he wishes for. It’s extremely unlikely that he’ll be elected and this is basically a coded call for Green support.
The problem is that the anti-nuclear push exists only on the left. The right of politics is mostly for it and the middle is starting to ask difficult questions about where we’re going to get the power from for my mandatory electric vehicle and why has the electricity bill jumped.
The “mostly-rational” centre is prepared to accept the mostly minimal risks of nuclear power against the much greater risk of an energy drought. As long as they’re informed.
Nuclear power has a much longer technological development than electric vehicles, has killed less people and had fewer accidents. If the same standards had been applied to Australia’s phasing out of petrol and diesel cars and trucks we wouldn’t have a single electric vehicle on the roads.
One of the biggest arguments against nuclear power is the cost and time required to build. The cost is a consequence of over-engineering the paperwork and regulatory environment and the time is a consequence of continually delaying it because, well … it takes too long to build.
As it stands now the only way to mandate electric vehicles is with nuclear power. Unless there’s a radically new technology available, there’s no way you can increase the theoretical maximum efficiency required with the power generation we have available.
I think it will be illegal to hold a State Referendum on the same day as a federal election. I can’t find it in the Act I’m certain but there was/is a restriction on State elections being held on same day as Federal elections.
IT certainly would be very difficult administratively to conduct unless the Referendum was outsourced to AEC.
The ECQ has had problems hiring pre-poll venues this election and shop keepers seem to be very hostile to the parking in their centres being taken over by voters.
@ Andrew
If correct it could be in either qld.or Australian legislation
Gympie, many have been rehabilitated and haven’t gone on to offend again. Are you suggesting they should all never be let out of prison or given the death penalty?
Mark Yore, the cost isn’t just over-engineering when every single country that builds nuclear power plants takes ages and huge amounts of money to build them. All the ones that have actually gone into construction over the past 20 years took many years to build. Unless you’re suggesting we cut corners and compromise on risk to get things done cheaper and quicker?
I think you also underestimate the sheer amount of renewable energy being added to the grid every year. In 2023 Australia added 5.9GW of renewable energy, which is about as much as Dutton’s seven proposed nuclear plants will deliver combined. Renewables will dwarf the capacity of the nuclear plants by the time they’re built, and every expert agrees they’ll do it cheaper too. So the fear of an energy drought without nuclear is severely overblown.
What I’m saying is innocent people’s lives should ever be placed at risk by do gooders with something to prove.
Rapist should be executed because of what they’ve done, not pardoned on the unprovable basis that they might not do it again.
Try to keep in mind the enormity of what these criminals have done?
Anyway, Crisafulli says sanity will prevail.
We’ll see.
Ashby cannot win Keppel.
He will finish third but he has a gift for the lnp via his preferences. He is the ultimate machine man and he is unfit for elected office. The lnp is tainted by his preferences. I hope the voters can see through this.i am confident this seat will be won by Labor.
Re Nuclear
Will a future lnp govt stand up for Queensland or just agree with whatever Mr Dutton wants.
Nuclear has a long development time so even if there a justification for it there would be a 10 year wait.
But also there is the.problem that there is no adequate system to store the waste
@Nether Portal When Crisafulli wins, he should decrease coal royalties whilst increasing royalties on salt mining, just to extract as much money from the Bondi Cowboys as possible, because believe me, there will be more salt than the Dead Sea from there once he wins
/s
When was the last man executed in Australia? 1960s in Vic under Henry Bolte.
Why none since?
Because no Australian govt wants this barbarism
Courier Mail is now reporting an Exit Poll of early voting which reports 58-42 TPP LNP vs ALP. And highlighting the swing from the 2020 election.
I’m not sure if they’re right in suggesting that there is no difference in the vote composition between early votes and on the day votes (especially weekday votes). When comparing PPVC with election day booths, there is almost always is a bias towards LNP on TPP. It’s also obvious that special cohorts of people like retirees are generally overrepresented at the early voting centres on weekdays because they’ve got the flexibility and spare time to incorporate this into their day.
The Greens votes across the divisions they exit polled is remarkably low, also pointing to a potential distinction between early voting and the election day vote.
There infographic shows Greenslopes with a Greens vote of 5% and have indicated a swing of -0.5% next to it.
This isn’t right, Greenslopes had a Greens primary of 23.4% in 2020. I think they’ve completely stuffed up their reporting of this exit poll. There might be other problems with the infographic they’ve published too.
Ok I see the problem with their infographic, they’ve just copied and pasted the column of results for Gaven by accident in the Greenslopes column.
Yeah I saw that result for Greenslopes and was really confused!
McConnel was confusing as well, same with Cairns. The LNP would do better in the former (an inner city seat with an 11% margin) vs the latter (a crime-ridden regional seat with a 6% margin) according to that poll.
As someone who lives in Greenslopes and have already voted I wasn’t exit polled, and there are dozens of houses with Green signs here, with only a couple from Labor and none from the LNP
first day of prepolls tends to be boomergeddon, and the sample sizes are really small too. Nonetheless maybe it is an indication that Miles’ leftward pivot has helped to neutralise the Greens’ momentum. I’d take it as a consolation prize if I believed that Qld Labor was capable of learning lessons they didn’t want to learn.
The fuckiest Greens stats from the poll aren’t even from McConnel and so forth. It has Springwood and Thuringowa with a 1% Greens, while Cairns is 14%. Maybe this is hopium but I really don’t think it has a lot of validity.
The only 2 guaranteed Labor seats are Woodridge and Inala. Every other seat is vulnerable in an LNP landslide/supermajority which seems very likely.
60% TPP for the LNP is almost certain, the margin of error always benefits the LNP/Coalition, Labor almost never does better than the opinion polling, just look at the NT election.
60/40% alp approx 20 seats
55/45% alp approx 30 ”
Seats swing ? 5 to 11%
Seat margins
10% mainly retained
5 to 10 some retained this is on a seat by Seat.basis
Lnp composition: how many liberals? How many.nats?
<5% mainly lost
I was just thinking about the crime situation, and the reporting of it, and it occurs to me that possibly both sides of the argument could be true simultaneously. What I think is the muddying factor here is the perception of crime.
It is true that most of us have a camera in our pockets, so we can capture crime if we see it. By the same token, the 24-hour news loop means that we often likely marinate our brains in fear, and don’t necessarily realise that the several different articles or videos we see over a period might in fact relate to the same crime.
I also wonder about who is more likely to actually see crime occur, as opposed to who is more worried about it.
My reasoning here is personal. Before my current visit to Rockhampton, I visited friends near Mullaley and Yetman in NSW. Knowing I would have to stay in some of the regional towns nearby, I checked out the BOSCAR stats from the NSW government. They were certainly higher for car theft and theft from cars. And yet, despite all that worrying- nothing happened; I never had any reason to feel unsafe.
The other thing is, why was I worried about this now when it wouldn’t even have occurred to me when I was younger? Part of it is that I assumed I was bulletproof then, like many males, but given I am now unfit and middle-aged, I feel much less so now.
Then we have social changes. If I was well-off, and lived in a house full of stuff, I would have concerns about it. Yet I may also now be WFH, and not actually have visited many suburbs of my own city in many years. So I may potentially read – and share – details of heinous crimes with my friends who share my concerns…without ever once having actually been exposed to criminal activity.
On the other hand, if I was a young person out and about at night, or waiting for the bus/train etc, I may actually see more crime committed- but unless I am caught up in it, am I likely to report all of it, or just shrug as I head off to my service industry job?
So I think it possible that crime rates are falling overall, but are steady or rising in some locations and some crimes. And then it’s a matter of whether we look at the glass as half-full or half-empty, and how we feel about it personally.
@Scart: “McConnel was confusing as well, same with Cairns. The LNP would do better in the former (an inner city seat with an 11% margin) vs the latter (a crime-ridden regional seat with a 6% margin) according to that poll.”
QPS Crime Rate statistics for Brisbane Central:
2024: 22,200.704 (down from 30377 last year)
QPS Crime Rate statistics for Cairns:
2024: 19732.472 (down from 26,259 last year)
All statistics above sourced from https://mypolice.qld.gov.au/queensland-crime-statistics/
Looks like the evidence doesn’t back up your narrative about which electorate is “crime-ridden”.
By the way, the Cairns statistics would include only the Cairns electorate area, not Barron River (which is counted in Smithfield statistics) and Mulgrave (Edmonton, Gordonvale etc).
@Ryoma An excellent contribution, nuanced and considered without needlessly cheerleading or regurgitating talking points from one party or another. Thank you.
Exit polls have the in winning gaven springwood and ahead in McConnell 46-31 this would make good news for the libs federally in Ryan and brsibane
I Would take the exit polls with a grain of salt as not everyone will answer & the one that do would be the ones most fed up with state government
@Caleb they did note that the exit polls in 2020 were very similar to the actual result. Labor is about to to get smashed but not as badly as 2012 but still smashed.
The exit polls are literally surveys of 100 people in each electorate. Take them with a grain of salt