Welcome to the Tally Room’s guide to the 2024 Queensland state election. This guide includes comprehensive coverage of each seat’s history, geography, political situation and results of the 2020 election, as well as maps and tables showing those results.
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Table of contents:
Legislative Assembly seat profiles
Seat profiles have been produced for all 93 Legislative Assembly electoral districts. You can use the following navigation to click through to each seat’s profile.
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@AA – look at the next sentence.
Look, I am being a bit of a smart ass about this, but it is not the first time I have seen this type thing in the less reputable news sources, a 27 paragraph article exposing why something is wrong then a one sentence quote showing the opposite.
The people here saying youth crime is down everywhere: have you not been to Townsville or Alice Springs?
You gotta realise that there are different crimes (on one end you have murder and rape while on the other end you have graffiti).
Alice Springs is not relevant to a Queensland election.
https://mypolice.qld.gov.au/townsville/queensland-crime-statistics/
According to this data – using the rate of crime as the reference, not the raw numbers – crime is down in Townsville this year.
There’s also factors at play in regards to how crime is reported. From experience I can tell you lower end crimes don’t get recorded much anymore because it’s hard to get police to attend or investigate. That would lead to reduction in the statistics.
The actual statistics show that crime rates have decreased in Queensland. You cannot argue with that.
So why haven’t the stats been broken down by type of Offence?
It wouldn’t be hard to do, since both Murder and graffiti are separate Offences.
But they haven’t, which leads the sane to suspect the obvious, which is:
The public are being Gaslit by persons with a dodgy agenda.
@Real Talk adult crime vs youth crime?
I should note that crime statistics don’t count unreported crimes, which in rural areas like where I grew up (in NSW) are common. I grew up in rural NSW, we didn’t have a lot of cops, so I witnessed a few crimes (mostly vandalism, kids getting bashed or kids vaping or people smoking weed).
If youth crime has deceased why did I always see dodgy eshays who were possibly armed intimidate people the train station all the time in Mango Hill?
Also the North Lakes murder which we all remember, if it’s decreased then why are we seeing more youth crime trends on tiktok, they are using social media to promote the crime they do including stealing cars which directly leads to increase of youth crime because it causes other youths to do it too.
A social media ban I believe will also help reduce the numbers and reduce copycat crimes and gangs.
Because criminals didn’t use tiktok 10 years ago.
We’ve seen more crimes posted on tiktok within the past few years, because tiktok has become popular over the past few years. All this crime still happened 10 years ago, it just wasn’t posted on social media.
So much mental gymnastics going on.
The shifting of goalposts is impressive, on one level.
Next think you lot will say is that statistics are woke.
A A, yes but social media is being used to promote and encourage these crimes and encourage young men (and some young women) to pursuit this sort if behaviour.
I know the sort of people, they are the people I always avoided, they are the sort of individuals to also commit domestic violence, the government needs to take action and not only toughen the laws on sentencing and rehabilitation, but also invest in mental health (which leads to allot of crime) and invest in more public services and support the social media ban until 16.
If Dutton campaigns on youth crime it will be a vote winner especially if Albo doesn’t improve Alice Springs, and especially it Albo pushes back Crisafulli’s reforms.
The eshays and thugs are never going to vote for the LNP anyway, they are ALP/GRN voters who have allowed them to get off the hook and be released on bail all the time.
Time to log off and read a book. That’s enough internet for today.
@daniel i think albo has all but lost lingiari. and if both the nt and qld liberal govt make good on their promise or at least are seen to be doing something about youth crime they wll probably lose solomon and maybe blair. theyd also face a bit of a challenge in some of their other qld seats too. i think they will still hold moreton rankin and lilley but on reduced margins that would make them targets in 2028 oxley is about the only seat i think labor wont be worrying about.
John, I also wouldn’t rule out Moreton due to the vacancy, Lilley is unlikely but Moreton is a possibility if the LNP are popular. But LNP always narrowly miss out on Moreton, so could it fall in 2028?
Ryan is most likely going back to the LNP, I don’t even think the Greens expected to win it in 2022, the consensus was a swing against the LNP but not enough for them to lose it.
Chalmers is safe, He won’t lose that, If Wayne Swan couldn’t lose Lilley in 2010 and 2013 which were difficult years for Labor, I doubt Chalmers losses Rankin even if it shifts to Beenleigh (Beenleigh is Labor heartland)
Blair is gone, but could go back Labor in 2028 if the redistribution completely sheds the Somerset. To Wright or Maranoa
I will caution when drawing similarities from State to Federal however is Crisafulli is popular, it could help the LNP federally, but nothing like how McGowan helped Labor in 2022 in WA
@daniel t based on the numbers i looked at bonner will likely expnd into moreton which will in turn move into oxley which would strip more of ispwich from blair making it safer for the lnp. it wont shed somerset to wright because that would just make a weird looking division and maranoa as well. also the fact that the defeceit is south of the river means it will lose more of spwich rather then somerset as the surplus is on the north side. in fact it may gain more territory from places like longmand and fairfax as the defeceit in the south may force it to. in order to maintain the logain brisbane boundary of rankin yes it will move into forde but its not that far in defecei that it would reach beenleigh. it will likely take in parts north or west of the logan river. lilley willey expand north into lnp voting petrie too. i think this will make moreton lilley and rankin all gettable for the lnp but it would sure up oxley. i also dont think based on past results that blair will flip i think albo retaining neumann against the geder quotas qwill just save it. bribsane and ryan are defeinately still within the lnps grasp. though i think if they are winning those back they will likely be getting a majority or close enough to get a minority govt
qld also probably wont be gaining another division based on slow growth compared to vic and wa. if it were to gain another seat then it would likely shed somerset but it doesnt look like that will happen either
@Daniel T to be honest I feel like people would get around any social media ban easily. I’m told that the phone bans at schools are already circumvented.
Whether Moreton flips depends on whether the small-l-liberal vote and the Chinese vote goes back to the LNP, which it won’t under Dutton. Sunnybank is very Chinese and Moreton has the fourth-highest Greens vote in Queensland. Labor has held Moreton since 2007 (when the current MP, Graham Perrett, won it from Gary Hardgrave who was a minister in the Howard government).
For Ryan to go back I think having a moderate leader would be very helpful. Ryan is split between three areas: the semi-rural area (Brookvale and Pullenvale), the inner-city area (Indooroopilly and Taringa) and the affluent area (Fig Tree Pocket and Moggill). It’s pretty self-explanatory how each area votes, and seemingly as of the last federal election it’s the affluent area that is the middle ground between the LNP and the Greens and the Yes and No vote in the Voice referendum.
it will be interesting to see overlapping state results in the qld seats though
? How will the lnp reduce crime?and what happens when they don’t?
Mick, Crisafulli says he will quit (and likely hand it over to Bjeljie) and lose in 2028 since. bjeljie is more of the Alt-right Sky News kind and he is more of a Campbell Newman than Crisafulli is.
But they should be able to reduce crime because the idea of these policies is to put more of a deterrent in place, young lads will think twice before re-offending otherwise they will he in jail for a long time.
Crisafulli literally said he would quit as Premier if crime doesn’t decrease under his government.
Sam O’Connor should be Premier after Crisafulli, he’s my local MP and he’s fantastic. I’ve heard almost nothing bad about him, even Labor voters like him.
ALP campaign launch was surprisingly in my former suburb of North Lakes, Labor must be very worried about Bancroft to launch it there, I think it will flip so they are right to campaign there.
Yeah, but what about if unreported crime increases? What will happen then?
Do deterrents work ? You have a young chap who has nothing and is drug addicted…… will the thought of maybe another say 10 years in.jail make any difference to stop his later break and enter.
What we have is an issue which will shift votes. . But probably no one has a solution to the problem.
Promises to step down mean very little…….
Trying to work out the result?
From opinion polling it appears generally a 8 to 9% swing against Labor. This swing is said to be worse in the provincial cities and outer suburbs. No proof provided.
We know there won’t be a uniform swing but those above the projected swing lost will balance those below retained.
I assume the range of the swing would be 8%+- 3%
Ie 5% to 11%
I assume for the most part any seats with a margin of 5% or less will be lost
Those 10% or above will be retained again for the most part.
I also assume the Noosa ind 3 of the 4 kap and all lnp sitting mps will retain their seats.
The first trance up to 5% are not enough to win an lnp majority. (9)
The remainder between 5 and 10% will decide the size of the majority.
A lot of the 5 to 10% sitting alp mps can have arguments made for possible retention….. eg Rockhampton has a strong ind candidate and the was up may mean Labor wins.
Gavan sitting mp has a margin over 7% and is a talented minister maybe enough to keep.
Maryborough.. mp has a personal vote which may be enough to retain(11%)
The swing will be all around the place. Might be some shock losses from Labor.
Last NT election the fact that it was a landslide shocked most people and the fact that the CLP (led by Lia Finocchiaro) did so well in Darwin and Labor (led by Eva Lawler) got wiped out in Darwin which was a huge shock. Then of course the Greens shockingly won Nightcliff from former Chief Minister Natasha Fyles.
Now an election in the Territory shouldn’t be too indicative of an election in Queensland (especially since electorates are more populous in Queensland than they are in the NT), but it still means we could be yet again shocked by how badly Labor does. We knew the CLP would win, but we didn’t expect it to be that big of a victory.
One thing to note is that the protest vote for the Greens in parts of Darwin in protest against Labor trying to copy the CLP and Labor’s support of fracking is what caused the Greens to win Nightcliff and it’s why they did so well in Braitling and Fannie Bay where they made the TCP but lost to the CLP.
A reasoned and thoughtful pair of posts @Mick. A repeat of 2012 is unlikely, despite the hardiest of prognostications one reads here.
Final prediction
Labor loses:
Every seat under 7% margin (i.e. up to Mansfield) except Inala and Cook to the LNP.
Also lose Capalaba, Mulgrave and Maryborough to the LNP (Not confident on Maryborough however)
McConnel, Cooper, Greenslopes and Miller to Greens (Not confident on Miller AT ALL, but I have to say SOMETHING…)
Rockhampton to Strelow (Not confident on winner, but I am sure Labor will lose this).
KAP loses Mirani to LNP
Labor will retain just Cook and Gladstone in the regions.
Capalaba will have the biggest anti-Labor swing in SEQ.
Reasonably good Green swings in Bulimba, Ferny Grove, Toohey and Stafford but will not get close to outpolling Labor in any of them.
Ashby/PHON does well in Keppel but falls short.
I suspect Moggill and Clayfield has a (tiny – LNP retain still) 2pp swing AGAINST LNP contrary to statewide trends. I suspect Greens will make 2pp in both.
Most marginal Labor seats will be Gaven and Cook.
Most marginal coalition seats will be Clayfield, Moggill and Mansfield.
@Leon I agree with that assessment. I think it is very well thought out. What do you think about Tim Mander’s Everton seat considering it is the other LNP seat in Brisbane? I imagine he will have a swing towards him due to pretty good popularity.
@leon
Disagree with some
Mirani kap
Maryborough alp
Musgrave alp
Rockhampton hopefully alp (3 way marginal)
Greens will at most win +2
These are the obvious ones disagree with…..I suggest the swing will for the most part be range 5 to 11%
Labor will also do better in Brisbane
Keppel is a special case…
I agree Ashby will not win but he will poison the lnp vote which (fingers crossed) could allow the alp to retain.
@NP
Usually what the pendulum suggests if not predicting actual seats usually predicts the number.
If Labor loses seats on an unexpected basis then the reverse holds some seats are retained on an unexpected basis as well..
This does not work in one direction only.
@Don
Everton I think won’t swing against LNP. Nor would Chatsworth for that matter (The parts west of Creek Rd may swing against LNP but the east of Creek Rd I expect will swing to the LNP)
Considering the potential Abortion issue, I think Moggill will swing more than Clayfield (against LNP) based on the incumbent effect but Moggill has the larger margin to start with.
@Mick
Fair enough. Those are roughly the seats I am least confident about.
I mostly agree with Mick but I expect the swings across each division will average out to be 8% but vary by plus or minus 12% because Queensland is a wildly diverse state of different regions. So this can play out as a near 20% swing in some divisions, and no swings in others (even some swings against LNP). The pattern expected is larger swings on the fringes, and softer swings in the most urban centres (this includes the provincial cities). But again, there isn’t much data to go by to support this swing pattern besides the Redbridge cross-tabs which were quite vague in their designation of regions.
The biggest risk for the LNP is that the swing plays out in all the wrong places: ie. divisions they already hold and divisions held by Labor by too large of a margin (15%+). It seems like the Labor divisions on less than 5% margin are most-likely lost albeit maybe one surprise (at best). The divisions on 5% to 10% are largely toss ups depending on local specifics (candidate-quality, local issues, demographics, public-service workforce %). Outside of 10%, LNP might have a shot at a few divisions if things are a complete blow-out in their favour (I’m looking at Logan and Mount Ommaney).
I will still be watching the divisions of Clayfield, Coomera, Currumbin, Burleigh and Mermaid Beach for potential surprise 2PP swings that could trade a seat over to Labor. But do rate it pretty unlikely. My thinking is that the public’s mood for change might surprisingly unseat some of the legacy LNP incumbents like Ray Stevens (Mermaid Beach).
Gold Coast Labor haven’t stopped mentioning Theodore but I think that’s just kayfabe and highly unlikely. If their campaign have seriously been operating under an assumption that they can pick up Theodore for over a year now, I think they might be getting high off their own supply.
At a point, Labor might have thought it could just comfortably trade some of the Palasczuk pensioner divisions of Bundaberg, Nicklin, Wide Bay and Caloundra for some of the aforementioned urban LNP marginals. But it’s obviously all fell out from under them.
@Leon what about Mackay? I’m writing Labor off there, historic win for the LNP coming up.
Considering the members for Clayfield and Chatsworth are two of the three LNP MPs who SUPPORTED the decriminalisation of abortion in Queensland, and are both on Crisafulli’s frontbench, they should have strong personal votes to prevent swings against the LNP. The swings towards Labor in 2020 in these two seats were also below the statewide average, showing they have strong personal votes.
I think Labor is unlikely to retain Gaven. Gaven is located in the LNP heartland area in the Gold Coast. Labor has never won a Gold Coast-based federal seat. Although Meaghan Scanlon’s personal vote and the Palaszczuk Government’s popularity during the pandemic helped Scanlon retained the seat with a large swing towards her in 2020, the unpopularity of the Miles Government, particularly in traditionally conservative areas like Gold Coast, means Meaghan Scanlon’s personal vote probably won’t be able to withstand the large swing against Labor that is likely to occur outside of Brisbane.
I think when you look at divisions like Clayfield, Coomera, Currumbin, Burleigh and Mermaid Beach the scenario is more of a case of a a subdued swing to the LNP well below the average state swing. Probably one of two exceptions where it could swing marginally towards Labor, but I doubt it.
@Nether Portal
I think that is *just* below Mansfield on the pendulum, and I am assuming an LNP win there
@mick ashby wont poison the lnp he will likely help them
Wondering if Gaza could be a sleeper issue for Labor in the Inner suburban seats? Some horrible stuff on TikTok.
Sure, Miles isn’t responsible for Albo’s craven foreign policy, but it’s a timely opportunity for Labor’s Left to send the leadership a message in an Election they’re losing heavily anyway.
That would take out Labor members in McConnel, Cooper, Miller, maybe Toohey, Greenslopes, Bulimba if it was on and replace them with Greens.
Gaza will be an issue in Logan where there are Muslims not in Cooper , Bulimba which are affluent seats with very few Muslims
@Mick Quinlivan:
Do deterrents work? You have a young chap who has nothing and is drug addicted…… will the thought of maybe another say 10 years in.jail make any difference to stop his later break and enter.
Let’s say you’ve got a 16 year old who stabbed a woman in the heart because she wouldn’t give him her car keys?
Now, most people couldn’t do that even if their life was in immediate peril.
Not that many years ago, this crime would have received a Queens Pleasure Sentence, they might have been let out, but it would be a long time down the track.
Some people are born predators, there’s no possibility of Rehabilitation, because there’s a inability to experience empathy.
Now, so long as they haven’t committed a Crime, all good, but once they have, they either need to be locked up for life or executed, there isn’t a 3rd option.
@Nimalan:
It may not be an issue with Muslims at all, most in Qld aren’t Arabs and 40% of overseas Palestinians are Christians anyway.
I’m saying it’s a humanitarian issue, The Greens are saying the same, Labor is doing the 3 Wise Monkeys routine [again], Dutton is backing Israel.
Remember, Labor is in power federally, this is the perfect opportunity for Teal/Left Labor to send Albo a message.
So, a crime like being a director of a company trading while insolvent deserves a life sentence?
You don’t uderstand the meaning of the word ‘violent’?
@ Gympie
However, Palestinian Christians are as Palestinian as their Muslim counterparts and are aligned politically on this. I think nearly all Muslims even non Arabs such as South Asians muslims are Pro-Palestine. The only exception are Iranian dissidents and maybe Albanians who are more Westernized. Wills is an interesting example as it combined Greens heartland with working class ethnic suburbs. I am not sure is Teal inclined voters are Pro-Palestine. There is many moderate Liberal voters who are generally Pro-Israel because they see it as an outpost of Western Civilisation while many working class ethnic voters see it as a settler colony. It maybe humanitarian but it is also an ideological divide. The people who are Hawkish on China and support Tibet/Uyghurs like Drew Pavlou are also Pro-Israel.
Another person is Kimberly Kitching who was a supporter of Human Rights in China but is Pro-Israel if she was a still alive. She will be arguing for Human Rights for Muslim Uyghur but will be supporting Israel at the same time
@Gympie @Nimalan
From personal experience campaigning in Brisbane’s inner city, Palestine is an issue that pops up occasionally, but it’s mostly from young, socialist type renters, who would’ve voted green anyways. I’ve also encountered some extremely pro-Israel people (usually older), but I could count these encounters on one hand. The majority of people in seats like Cooper, Bulimba and Miller (affluent families and older couples) don’t see it as much of an issue. It won’t flip many votes in inner-city seats. It might flip some votes in seats like Stretton, Waterford and Woodridge, but not too many.
Also, most people can tell the difference between federal and state Labor. I know a few young people who are pro-Palestine, and frustrated with federal Labor, but will vote Labor at a state level because they like Steven Miles’ policies. The Greens haven’t really used Palestine as a major campaign issue for this election.
@Gympie: “Now, so long as they haven’t committed a Crime, all good, but once they have, they either need to be locked up for life or executed, there isn’t a 3rd option.”
Nowhere in that statement did you say violent.
A quick Ctrl+F search indicates nobody said violent anywhere on this thread since 10am yesterday.
@ AA
Thats what i feel as well, Green Left voters are more Pro-Palestine than Small L liberals/Teal voters. Maybe South Brisbane has that demographic but Cooper, Builmba and Miller. In Melbourne, Fitzroy, Brunswick have that demographic but Albert Park. Port Melbourne etc which are not Young Socialists.