Welcome to the Tally Room’s guide to the 2024 Queensland state election. This guide includes comprehensive coverage of each seat’s history, geography, political situation and results of the 2020 election, as well as maps and tables showing those results.
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Table of contents:
Legislative Assembly seat profiles
Seat profiles have been produced for all 93 Legislative Assembly electoral districts. You can use the following navigation to click through to each seat’s profile.
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@Daniel T please explain why you think Mirani will be an LNP gain? Also, what are the 12 seats you think Labor will hold?
@NP Oh, I see. It wasn’t clear.
55 or 56 lnp 2pp does not equal plus 38 seats it equals roughly plus 2024 is not as bad as 2012. There will be a lot of seats won by the lnp by small margins which can be won back.. to use a made up expression the elasticity of the swing in.qld will be very high..in.both directions.
also the Australian election forecasts predicts that a lot of the LNP Gains will be on razor thin margins
https://www.aeforecasts.com/forecast/2024qld/nowcast
Should read it equals roughly 20 seats lost.
I’ll take the bite for a prediction…
LNP retain Ipswich West. LNP to GAIN Barron River, Thuringowa, Mundingburra, Townsville, Bundaberg, Hervey Bay, Nicklin, Caloundra, Pumicestone, Redlands, Gaven, Mansfield, Redcliffe, Aspley, then Ferny Grove and Pine Rivers to be lineball. That’s where I think the swing stops, 14-15 seats only.
NP, Correct.
And Andrew isn’t winning Mirani, He only won in 2017 due to him having PHON next to his name, and this seat isn’t far north enough for the KAP to win. Katters haven’t ran in Mirani since 2012! and even then they only achieved 19%, Mirani isn’t Katter country, they will lose.
KAP has 3 seats, They won 3 at the 2020 election, they have 3, not 4, if Andrew wins Mirani it is a gain and they will have 4 (Why should an MP who changes his color be counted as a ”retain”? It’s unfair to the people of Mirani to say KAP ”Held it” when they didn’t vote KAP in the first place and haven’t ran since 2012 until now.
I will have to check my map as to what seats Labor is holding, Lemme see, (17.8%) Algester (21.2%) Bundamba (23.5%) Woodridge (28.2%) Inala (17.1%) Jordan (17.3%) Sandgate (16%) Waterford (14.8%) Stretton (14.5%) Toohey (13.8%) Miller (11.4%) Bulimba (13.2%) Greenslopes
I think that is 12, some seats like Lytton, Bundamba, Mt Ommaney, Nudgee, etc (and more) are too close to call but I list them as coin-flip LNP gains, so max seats for ALP is 20 seats.
@Caleb That site seems to be reasonable and realistic. Its median TPP and therefore the result in some seats is better for Labor than I’m expecting, but it’s an improvement over a lot of other predictions I’ve been seeing.
Oh and yes I think Gladstone will be one of the biggest upsets on the night and LNP will gain, no seat north of SANDGATE for Labor!!
But Labor should get many back in 2028 including seats with bad LNP candidates that will win anyway (Springwood, Possibly Cairns with that scandal with Morrison and the LNP candidate for Cairns) etc.
LNP won’t get Stretton and could be one of the top 3 safest Labor seats post-election due to that Dutch lady they selected who made controversial comments as an MP
@Daniel T if they win Gladstone that will be one of the most historic wins in an individual seat in history worldwide. It would be the nail in the coffin for Labor in their switch from being a worker’s party to a progressive party and they possibly wouldn’t get it back ever again if they lost it.
Gladstone isn’t going to the LNP. Time to log off and touch grass.
Gladstone is a regional seat, And I suspect Gladstone is pro-nuclear and pro-coal and Labors stances on those will hurt them badly in Gladstone, also the LNP has been doing better and better in Gladstone on federal figures compared to the statewide average.
If Brisbane isn’t swinging much then this must have a 20%+ swing to the LNP. If this isn’t flipping, then the swing is bigger than reported in SEQLD.
The model averages a 7% swing alp to liberals then adds in adjustments which may change up to another 1?% in either direction . These adjustments are heavily nuanced. And stress it does not predict individual seats. They do project a likely lnp win.
For Gladstone to be lost to the lnp is like Labor victory in Gregory.
Gladstone had a right-wing MP named Liz Cunningham, why wouldn’t Labor lose the seat again in an election they are losing in a landslide?
Gladstone might be a surprise.
I’ve been told that kids of people who were born in the town and lived all their lives there are unable to access the good paying CFMMEU jobs in the town, the Union fills vacancies with members from Brisbae and the southern States.
Gladstone was originally a [seasonal] meatworks town until Swifts closed in 1963, as well as being the best port on the east coast after Sydney Harbouir. So there’s long standing Labor Party infrastructure in the town, but the benefits aren’t filtering down to the locals.
If the LNP candidate is any good, it’s a Labor loss.
RE: “early voting begins on Monday so it’s a bit late if any wheels are going to come off the wagon.”
I think otherwise, we still have the weekend ahead of us. And I think that the typical disengaged swing voter has probably only just tuned into the election now (or will do so in a weeks time). If they’ve only just tapped in now, all they will be hearing is this abortion discussion. Perhaps different election issues will come into focus over this weekend. But right now this abortion discussion still seems to be an unresolved tension between LNP, Labor and the media that is yet to fully play out.
I reckon 2-3% in 2025 easy pickings for the 2028 election. Will continue to move east due to population growth. Once it sheds Dandenong the coalition will have no trouble winning this seat. Could be another redistribution in 2026 due to Vic regaining it’s 39th seat.
Woops wrong thread
Well, the ECQ is having problems. There’s an issue with booth choices, especially booths that are used for prepolling.
According to a lovely OIC a friend just spoke to, the normal practice by the ECQ is to ask the advice of their OICs when it comes to locations based on their experience and previous issues with the booth. Instead they appear to have reused the same location the Feds used for the referendum and just told the OICs where they’d be working.
Another issue is the unusually poor choice of joint booths, cutting some of the ones that would be reasonably expected to be joint booths, many of which were historically so.
The process used to be that you could vote out of your area and the ECQ had a batch of ballot papers from across the state at each booth. The new “streamlined” changes now are that absentee voters get a freshly printed ballot paper from a fairly basic printer. For booths that could be expected to have large numbers of absentee voters the potential wait times could be interesting.
Grabbing popcorn, waiting for the show.
ABC has released an article that youth crime levels are generally falling (See below)
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2024-10-13/criminologists-debunk-youth-crime-crisis-claims/104445432
One issue that have been raised with this article is that it doesn’t distinguish between regional and urban QLD. Assuming youth crime IS indeed up in regional areas, it seems safe to assume it is DOWN in urban QLD.
LNP will probably win the election anyway (off the back of winning stuff like Mulgrave/Maryborough) but this makes me wonder the possibility of LNP losing Clayfield and Moggill (marginal LNP, very high education, I assume one of the least likely areas for a crime increase) as I am not quite sure if the LNP are offering anything for these 2 seats in particular. Yes, i am aware that would be EXTREMELY out of line with statewide trends.
I do not have on-the-ground information so I am interested to know the sentiment there.
Not to sound like a broken record but if the youth crime hysteria was always exactly that, which it was, and never had any proportional relation to criminological reality, which it didn’t, then I doubt this story, which isn’t even new, is really going to change anything. Clayfiield and Moggill might ‘be interesting’ but not because of this.
@Furtive Lawngnome
I assume that is a fair assumption with most seats (For one, Ipswich West DID fall despite the huge margin and it being in SEQ), but I am skeptical of this applying to Clayfield/Moggill as well – both seats have a 40+% with “bachelors degree or above” rate.
I doubt they’ll lose any seats.
Also, youth crime is certainly increasing, at least outside of SEQ.
@NP Seems like you didn’t read the article?
Quote: “There’s no data to suggest that the rates of youth crime are spiralling out of control in Queensland or indeed anywhere in Australia,” Associate Professor Zahnow said.
“Whilst the population has continued to grow we’ve actually seen the number of offences stay the same or decrease in certain areas.”
She said the false claims were fuelled by sensationalist news outlets, social media platforms, and political opportunism. /end quote
Thoughts, other than vibes?
@Leon there was opinion polling showing that Labor on 2pp is doing much better in the inner & middle suburbs by as much as 8% more than in 2020
@Caleb the ALP will not win a seat off the LNP. Do not know where you got that 8% from ? Sounds like BS to me but the only seats left for Labor will be in those areas and the total I will be able to count by my fingers and toes.
That is total seats Statewide
@Damian https://redbridgegroup.com.au/wp-content/uploads/2024/09/Queensland-vote-intention-and-leader-ratings-May-Aug-2024-1.pdf
https://youtu.be/4hiVxmPeCrY?si=ag8hS2zrhgVWyOR0
@Damian you want a source, here’s your sources https://redbridgegroup.com.au/wp-content/uploads/2024/09/Queensland-vote-intention-and-leader-ratings-May-Aug-2024-1.pdf
https://youtu.be/4hiVxmPeCrY?si=6tWyRWSg_WhfGP90
@Caleb thanks for the info. Skimmed through it but does not state what seats they class as Inner & Middle suburbs ? But can have a guess which ones are included. The LNP probably hold at most 2-3 seats in those areas plus I think the Green vote will increase much more than the Labor party.
David Crisafulli won’t commit his party to a position on KAP’s anti-abortion bill, because: 1 He doesn’t want to make this an election issue, which could hurt the LNP in Brisbane seats. 2 More importantly, committing to a position either way will attract backlash. Committing to supporting KAP’s anti-abortion bill would be electoral suicide, while committing to opposing the bill will cause backlash within his own party, considering most LNP MPs and candidates are anti-abortion.
Unsurprisingly, Labor will continue to run scare campaigns on the LNP’s ambivalence on abortion rights, however this probably will not gain much traction outside of some wealthy and highly educated inner Brisbane seats, where voters struggle less with the cost of living and crime and are more animated by social issues such as abortion.
However, LNP’s ambivalence on abortion rights can end up hurting them in some inner Brisbane seats. The LNP could end up winning no Brisbane seats with margins greater than 10% (although the LNP doesn’t need any of these “safe” Labor seats to win majority government). Brisbane seats like Ferny Grove and Bulimba could end up being retained by Labor pretty comfortably, although with swings against Labor that are much lower than the statewide average.
David Crisafulli knows better than anyone else that KAP’s anti-abortion bill will pass under a government he leads if all LNP members are given a conscience vote, which is why he refused to say whether LNP members would be given a conscience vote. If he doesn’t want such anti-abortion bills passed without causing backlash from within his party room, the only course of action is to ban all LNP MPs from even voting on such laws. If all LNP MPs abstain from voting on any anti-abortion bill, then these bills will fail.
@Caleb The 14% 2PP swing towards Labor in the RedBridge poll published in September that you cited compared to the RedBridge Queensland state poll published in June is most likely due to sample noise caused by low sample size.
YOUTH CRIME IS INCRESING. people saying it isn’t is ignoring the fact it’s a major issue, It has doubled in 10 years!, LNP is right to campaign hard on this most important issue.
see what i mean lol
@Daniel T youth crime hasn’t increased it’s either stayed the same or has slowly decreased these past couple years
@Damian It probably means the inner metropolitan seats
Nothing makes an argument more convincing than all caps and exclamation marks. Rather Trumpian.
According to the Queensland Police Service, the rate of child offenders dropped by 2% in 2023-24. Since 2012-13, rates have decreased by 18%
The QPS said offence numbers dropped by a greater amount (6.7%) last financial year.
William Wood, a criminologist at Griffith University, says “the long-term trends certainly don’t show a youth crime epidemic”.
“It’s more accurate to say that during and immediately following Covid there were regional increases, in some cases substantial increases, in certain offences … and offender types.
“There’s a uniform understanding that compared to 10 or 20 years ago crime rates are far lower. In most western industrial nations, they really peaked in the 90s for youth crime and they’ve continued to decrease overall since then.”
– Ben Smee, The Guardian, 2 August 2024
The conservatives posting here are really not covering themselves in glory, completely ignoring facts and statistics in favour of vibes and media narratives.
The Media Narrative is
‘The stats say decrease in youth crime, case closed, bigots.’
Well, yeah, if you put Murder and Graffiti in the same column, maybe it has?
But, sane people don’t see it that way.
@Wilson – People do vote based on vibes and media narratives.
Conservative governments typically get credit for being better economic managers solely because of austerity and tax cuts. Even if it’s not actually good for the economy, with the lobbying of business (which isn’t necessarily doing better, but is having their short term needs met) and right wing media backing them in, conservatives win on the issue.
Same thing with crime (appearing “tough on crime” vs actual crime rates), immigration (visibly scapegoating immigrants vs letting infrastructure and services keep up or even just actually lowering immigration), and many other issues.
Feelings don’t care about your facts.
Gympie, prove it then, show that murder perpetrated by youth has gone up massively. Should be very easy for a sane person to do.
The Guardian is reporting that Steven Miles will hold a Plebiscite on Nuclear energy if re-elected, preferably on the same day as the federal election.
Premier Miles referred to an old Queensland law requiring that a plebiscite is held if the Federal Government is going to build a nuclear reactor in Queensland. He believes that whoever is Premier would be required to hold such a plebiscite.
@Gympie
Most media outlets are banging on about a “youth crime crisis”, with no evidence. It’s good that sensible sources of media are actually now pointing out the statistics.
Wilson October 14, 2024 at 8:00 am
Gympie, prove it then, show that murder perpetrated by youth has gone up massively. Should be very easy for a sane person to do.
Off the top of my head
1. Womanmurdered in her driveway at Northlakes
2. Youth murdered at Brunswick St Railway Station
3. Woma murdered at Redbank Plains shooping centre
4 Couple and unborn child murdered by driver at Capalaba
That’s in Brisbae in the last year or so.
A SC Judge has said there are 100 Murder/Manslaughter cases that can’t progress out of the Magistrates Court [because Miles Govt listened to Newscorp at extended the range of DNA testing to get more convictions].
The Government should be kicked out for that alone.
But have a think about that.
100 Murder/Manslaughter case in the system in Qld?
But there’s no Crime Wave?
Yeah, right.
Some of the most obvious decadal trends that have actually gone up here in relation to crime is consumer access to security cameras and their quality. Another is effectively everyone having a video-recorder in their pocket. And as a consequence, news publications ease of filling news bulletins with sensational footage of crimes being committed is better than ever before. Crimes that would have probably only made the blotter column 10 and 20 years ago now are playing out in hyper-reality on screens. These news bulletins are being syndicated and delivered to people all over the country, creating crime-angst amongst communities where crime is essentially negligible.
This isn’t the media being complicit in a grand conspiracy against one government or another either. Nor is it limited to Queensland and Australia. It’s what a big cohort of people really want to see when they’re watching the nightly news bulletin or sifting through the news on social media. People are getting sent straight to these stories from their devices’ home-screens too.
LNP have masterfully harnessed this angst from the sidelines (opposition) to their favour.
Not disregarding that there would definitely be specific regions and certain offence-types that would be seeing increases. Just pointing out some other significant reasons why crime-angst is at a fever-pitch across Queensland.
Wilson, you basically just quoted someone confirming the ‘youth crime epidemic’. Fancy then complaining about people putting ‘the feels’ over facts.
@Gympie Those crimes are horrific. But crimes like that have been happening for ages.
As SEQ Observer said, everyone has a phone in their pocket now. And the media, regardless of what government is in power, likes to amplify crime stories to get more people watching.
The actual statistics show that crime rates have decreased in Queensland. You cannot argue with that.
@Mostly Labor Voter
Wilson never quoted anyone confirming the “youth crime epidemic”. The actual quote was:
“the long-term trends certainly don’t show a youth crime epidemic”
There is the opposite case too SEQ – the BLM movement in the US was driven by phone footage of what looked like egregious Police conduct (in many cases very dubious) and used to push a narrative that could not be explained by the facts. Not only that, but the prime policy driven by this, ‘defund the police’, was most opposed by the demographic groups it most supposed to help!
What I think I am saying is, while I get the issues with the ‘youth crime epidemic’, most of those quoting stats to prove it isn’t true are the exact same people who would have been (and possibly still are) sucked in by the BLM lies.