Burleigh – Queensland 2024

The map looks really weird. Out of curiosity Ben, How many seats do you estimate Labor won on the election day vote in 2020?

All seats less than 3%?

Yeah it’s an interesting one.

No need for estimate, I can say exactly. It’s 58 Labor, 28 LNP, 3 KAP, 2 GRN, 1 IND, 1 ON. That’s a change of 6 seats to Labor from LNP.

The actual results however:

Seats:
ALP: 52 (+4)
LNP: 34 (-5/-4; note: Jason Costigan defected from the LNP but lost his seat of Whitsunday to the LNP)
KAP: 3 (+0)
GRN: 2 (+1)
ONP: 1 (+0)
IND: 1 (+0)
NQF: 0 (+0/-1; note: Jason Costigan defected from the LNP but lost his seat of Whitsunday to the LNP)

Primary vote:
ALP: 39.6% (+4.1)
LNP: 35.9% (+2.2)
KAP: 2.5% (+0.2)
GRN: 9.5% (-0.5)
ONP: 7.1% (-6.6)
NQF: 0.2% (+0.2)

TPP:
ALP: 53.2% (+1.9)
LNP: 46.8% (-1.9)

The booth map for TPP here seems to suggest a Labor victory, or is missing some key-booths.

The guide below displays the Fradgley Hall Community Centre polling place that seems to be missing from this guide. This is where LNP largely inched in front of Labor 4,812 to 4,177.

https://pseph.io/queensland-election-2024/profile/burleigh

The map isn’t missing any booths. “Fradgley Hall” was the main pre-poll booth in 2020 so doesn’t belong on the election day booth map. If you look at the table above the map, you can see that Labor won a majority of the 2PP in all three sub-areas, but the volume of pre-poll votes is much more. That other link has included the pre-poll booths on the map but I don’t think that makes sense. The election day booth map gives a sense of relative geographic trends, and pre-poll booths draw from all over the seat.

Its been reported in the Australian Gold Coast councillor Hermann Vorster is expected to be the LNP’s candidate for Burleigh, with sources tipping current Mp Michael Hart to retire.

LNP Mp for Burleigh Michael Hart has officially announced he won’t be recontesting the next election.

Correct about Vorster, very much been groomed for years by the McGrath faction.

Easy Green gain. yup!

@Am it will certainly pull a decently high Greens first-preference vote as far as Gold Coast divisions are concerned. Potentially, one of their highest outside of Brisbane even. However, it is not at all an Easy Greens gain. If the tide does not go out on Labor, contrary to what some are speculating now, it will be a close classic 2CP race between LNP and Labor. Neighbouring Currumbin will be much the same. Mermaid Beach is also likely to follow the trend of Burleigh and Currumbin.

@Am, I think the Greens will be happy with anything above 12% here. They certainly won’t win or even come close.

In hindsight, Labor missed their chance in 2020. They held it before the Campbell Newman landslide and had a solid candidate but were weak on prepolls and postals.

In 2020, I actually thought that the Gold Coast seats would swing to the LNP. I wrote in the Currumbin thread that I probably watched too much media reporting about how the hard border during Covid would hurt Labor as it shut down the tourism industry and made it difficult for those who wanted to cross the border for work or see family.

I dont know the Gold Coast that well so it will be great if someone can assist here. Is it possible that as Ocean Front land in SEQ becomes more scarce with population growth the remaining areas such as Burleigh are becoming more desirable and better for LNP. During the Beattie/Bligh years Labor held quite a few seats in the Gold Coast now they only hold one, Gaven which does not have any waterfront.

@Nimalan the Gold Coast has always been conservative.

Just for clarification: do you mean that if voters from, say, Surfers Paradise move to Burleigh Heads, would it benefit the LNP? I guess it might benefit the LNP but I don’t know how much difference it would make. Surfers Paradise as an electoral district is very much a blue-ribbon seat but the suburb of Surfers Paradise itself is actually only like 58% LNP (though nearby Main Beach is over 70% LNP).

The Gold Coast is affluent and it has large numbers of people who used to live in other cities (this is one of the reasons why the Gold Coast is known as a graveyard for sports teams, e.g Gold Coast United, the soccer club that was once owned by Clive Palmer, went broke and no longer plays in the A-League). It is very popular for tourists as I’m sure you know.

The Gold Coast also has a large ethnic population for a non-capital city. It notably has large Brazilian, Chinese and Japanese communities, and the most common languages other than English spoken at home on the Gold Coast are Chinese, Japanese, Portuguese and Spanish. Like other parts of South East Queensland, it also has a large New Zealander population, including a large Māori community (the Gold Coast actually has more Māori people than Aboriginal people).

@ NP
Agree that Gold Coast has been conservative. During Beattie/Bligh years the ALP held a few seats in Gold Coast including waterfront ones.
What i was trying to explain is that as SEQ grows the demographic that 20 years ago may have afforded to purchase a property in Surfers Paradise may now only afford to buy in Mermaid Beach and those who wanted to live in Mermaid Beach and priced out may now purchase in Palm Beach in the Burleigh electorate. So in essence affluence maybe moving South especially as Ocean front land is limited in SEQ. That is a phenomenon we see in other cities and cities grow and people and affluence are pushed outwards. I wonder if that maybe happening in the Gold Coast and making it weaker for Labor compared when Beattie/Bligh were in power.

IIRC there was speculation that the Gold Coast would be most resentful of travel restrictions. Maybe that’s why the COVID vote that got Labor over the line in e.g. Hervey Bay wasn’t enough here.

I’m still a bit perplexed as to why the Gold Coast has a reputation of lots of young socially progressive (as much as a “party” kind of city implies) renters living there but the Greens haven’t been able to make a meaningful push. Guess the retiree and white shoe brigade vote is too strong. IIRC Greens sat the council elections out and the local branch has been focused on crossing the border to firm up Mandy Nolan in Richmond. McPherson is actually one of the Greens better LNP held federal prospects looking at 3CP but similar to Fairfax and Fisher, there will be quite a challenge to bring down the LNP vote even if Greens can take 2nd place.

In the state election, if the tide is going out on Labor, will be good to test if Greens can take 2nd place in Burleigh (or Mermaid Beach).

I think Gold Coast is a hotbed for Centre-Right poltics as every voting booth on the Gold Coast voted No on The Voice despite the large size for a regional city but then support for SSM is around or just a bit above the national average. I think a lot are of wealthy old money retirees on the coast and Lower Middle-Middle Class Battlers inland and much less in proportion on younger white collar professionals.

This one I thought Labor would win in 2020. LNP were so lucky to hold on. I think Hart retiring this time is the right move, as Vorster’s profile will be enough for them to hold onto the seat – coupled with the swing to the LNP, this time.

Is Hermann an outside chance for a portfolio?

The Greens have announced their Burleigh candidate as Hunter Grove-McGrath, getting in before the ALP (Currumbin Candidate also announced)

Labor candidate is Claire Carlin

Don’t think anyone in here has made note of the fact yet that the Legalise Cannabis bloke standing for this division is the star and creator behind the television series Wilfred. Not the first time Burleigh has had a celebrity candidate.

The gold coast did not open to Labor the same way as it did in the Beatie years… maybe a alp landslide is needed first. Also alp mps on the gold coast pre 2012 must have been very popular

@ Mick
Methinks growing wealth divide with Gold Coast having more affluent retirees or cashed up boomers from other states has made it stronger for the Libs. Especially along the Ocean front. There is limited surf beaches in QLD so what is left will be increasingly prized. I expect this to become better for the Libs over time while more inland seats such as Coomera and Theodore could be better in future as they are away from the watefront.

@Mick @Nimalan the Gold Coast also has a lot of middle and upper-class people in combination with many semi-rural areas. Unlike Bondi or East Melbourne, Surfers Paradise (where most tourism is and a lot of surfing there), Southport (where the CBD is) and Main Beach (which is where Sea World is) are still somewhat conservative (moderately though) and are more similar to Vaucluse or Toorak.

Agree Nether Portal
As Ocean front land become scarce with population growth in SEQ i believe this area will be better for the Libs

This should give a clearer picture:

Yes vote in the Voice referendum in the richest electorates in Sydney, Melbourne, Brisbane and the Gold Coast:

* Higgins, VIC: 61.1%
* Moncrieff, QLD: 30.8%
* Ryan, QLD: 52.7%
* Wentworth, NSW: 62.6%

Here’s closer booth results there:

Yes vote in some rich suburbs:

* Bondi (Wentworth): 73.7%
* Broadbeach (Moncrieff): 38.2%
* Fig Tree Pocket (Ryan): 49.6%
* Indooroopilly (Ryan): 63.6%
* Main Beach (Moncrieff): 30.3%
* Moggill (Ryan): 48.3%
* Prahran (Higgins): 71.1%
* Southport (Moncrieff): 41.1%
* South Yarra (Higgins): 74.4%
* Surfers Paradise (Moncrieff): 37.2%
* Toorak (Higgins): 49.0%
* Vaucluse (Wentworth): 47.8%
* Watsons Bay (Wentworth): 56.8%

And so on.

@Nimalan yes and as you can see from the above results the Gold Coast while rich heavily voted No to the Voice while suburbs like Bondi, Prahran and South Yarra all voted over 70% Yes.

In fact not a single booth on the Gold Coast voted Yes. The Yes vote on the Gold Coast ranged from just 14.2% in Woongoolba (Fadden) to 49.2% in Miami (Moncrieff).

@ Nether Portal
It will be interesting to look at how rich suburbs in WA and SA voted on the voice. Rich suburbs include Toorak Gardens, Rose Park, Stonyfell, Beaumont, Highbury or in Perth (City Beach, Peppermint Grove, Applecross).
Bondi, Prahran and South Yarra have more renters which make them different to the other Rich Suburbs. Other Rich suburbs include Hunters Hills, Longueville, Mosman, Clontarf, Fairlight and Seaforth.

Also in the Corio thread we looked at the difference between voice and Republic referendum. Ben has already calculated how the republic referendum results would have looked on the 2022 boundaries. If you could do a map and table like the great ones you have been doing to see if there was a “swing” to the voice from the Republic.

https://www.tallyroom.com.au/53501-Republic results on 2022 boundaries

@Nimalan I could do it, but that link doesn’t work.

I know Lingiari would’ve had more support for the Voice than the Republic but other areas will be different. Victoria almost voted Yes to the Republic.

https://www.tallyroom.com.au/53501

@ Nether Portal
Hopefully the link above works now. There are a few others listed on the Corio 2022 thread that Drake worked out as well.

@Nimalan yep that one works. Thanks!

Cathy Osborne has been revealed as the first (and presumably most promising) Libertarian party candidate for the state election. She unsuccessfully contested Division 12 on the Gold Coast City council earlier this year and received 47.1% of the 2CP vote. Although as far as I can tell most of that ward is actually in Mermaid Beach rather than Burleigh, so it’s a bit odd she’s running here unless it’s where her current residency is.

Either way could be interesting to see what kind of support she can garner.

@Laine, I don’t think it’s very odd for candidates to be attempting to represent divisions in proximity to where they reside. These divisions on the Gold Coast are very small by area-size because of their urban population density. Most constituents of Burleigh and Mermaid Beach would probably identify with the Southern Gold Coast more broadly rather than these fairly arbitrary state divisions. Especially when they’re prone to bounce around a lot in redistributions and boundary changes.

On that point, I think the beat up on Vorster, living in Robina, as reported today in the Gold Coast Bulletin is also a bit unfair.

@SEQ Observer Yeah it’s not strange when you factor in the average voter’s indifference to arbitrary electoral boundaries. I was more so considering that most of her voter base would presumably be in Mermaid Beach given most of division 12 is.

I did hear something about the story regarding Vorster and another LNP candidate on the Gold Coast recently but didn’t know the details. It is a bit silly to nitpick him for living in Robina, I believe some Labor state MPs don’t live in their electorates either.

Are there any other election results in history where a seat has every voting booth voted for the same party but a different party won due to TPP?

*due to early voting

@Marh I’m pretty sure Fannie Bay in the NT was won by the Greens of election day booths but the CLP won on early votes.

I can think of plenty of times where seats have done the opposite though (the party that won the seat did not win prepolls and/or postals).

I think it’s probably happened a bunch in the last few years. But wouldn’t have been common until recently.

Looking at Labor’s Instagram, they seem to be putting quite an effort into Gold Coast seats. It’s the only place where they aren’t incumbents with a volunteer presence (and maybe Chatsworth?). Miles, who has definitely not been running a “we know we’ve lost” campaign, seems to be hoping for Gold Coast gains to offset losses elsewhere.

Not seeing anything to suggest Labor are any better off than 2020 here though.

@Blue Not John, agree with you that Labor Gold Coast appear to be putting in a huge effort. It looks like they have full buy-in to this election unlike the report from the Australian that their candidates “are sitting around waiting to lose”. Maybe that’s the case for some of the candidates up north though, a bit more isolated from the direction of campaign HQ.

The Gold Coast Labor candidates have also been really disciplined and not broken kayfabe in their purported belief that they can win this election. I’m not sure though that this is founded on any internal numbers that confirms that they are credibly in with a shot.

Coomera, Theodore, Mermaid Beach, Burleigh and Currumbin look attainable on paper, but only by ignoring the massive mammoth state-wide swing anticipated. The big bet from Labor here is that Gold Coast miraculously ends up bucking the trend of the state. Which is honestly possible in a typical swings and roundabouts situation. Queensland as a regionally diverse state is especially vulnerable to wide-arrays of different swings. This 10% state-wide swing could materialise as 20% swings against Labor in certain seats, to negligible changes in others. And finally, some potential swings of a few percent to Labor in some outliers.

Regardless, campaigning with this much energy is the only way to potentially move the dial.

This seat has eight candidates for some reason. Usually the seats with the most candidates are key seats or seats held by high-profile MP.

What is the record for most candidates in an Aussie election of any sort? In Canada there was a recent federal by-election in the seat of LaSalle-Émard-Verdun in Montreal, Quebec where 91 candidates ran, with a bunch of independents running on an anti-FPTP voting platform (the last two somehow got zero votes). Bloc Québecois ended up gaining the seat from the Liberals. That’s Canada’s record (search up the ballot, it’s huge), what’s Australia’s?

For anyone in Burleigh who doesn’t know where to put all these candidates, here’s my HTV card:

1. Hermann Vorster (LNP)
2. Cathy Osborne (Libertarian)
3. Elliot Tasses (One Nation)
4. Neena Tester (Family First)
5. Jason Gann (Legalise Cannabis)
6. Claire Carlin (Labor)
7. Amelia Dunn (AJP)
8. Hunter Grove-McGrath (Greens)

How did I decide this? The Greens and AJP are extreme left. The AJP wants to make everyone vegan and destroy the agricultural industry while the Greens want to ruin the economy and push wokeism on society. Labor needs to go. I support medicinal marijuana but on recreational usage I’m not so sure. The Libertarians, One Nation and FFP are all right-wing populist parties, but I find FFP too religious and then the Libertarians are the lesser of the two evils between them and One Nation.

So why did I put AJP above the Greens? Simply because you can’t put two candidates at the same number and AJP are just a single-issue party like Legalise Cannabis so they won’t do well in any lower house seat anywhere ever.

Bradfield 2009 would have to be up there – 22 candidates, 9 of which were Christian democrats, all of whom lost their deposit.

@BNJ ah yes, I’ve heard of that one. I was gonna mention it but I forgot which seat it was (I was tempted to say Bennelong, but it was Bradfield, though both are blue ribbon seats in northern Sydney and both start with B).

I think that it’s interesting that the Libertarian candidate Cathy Osbourne is prominently using a lot of teal on her signage and corflutes. Likely in an attempt to make herself appealing to those who might be interested in a teal-independent. There has been talk about the interest in teal candidates in this area, particularly with the McPherson Independent Group generating buzz in the lead up to the Federal election.

The libertarian candidate also ran prominent campaigns at the last 2 council elections in division 12