Burdekin – Queensland 2024

With towns like Collinsville going from one of the most Labor booths in the country a couple of decades ago to a swing booth and even leaning conservative, this will never go Labor again.

The town of Collinsville and those like it are hugely dependent on the mining industry, I used to have a friend who is related to the former ALP candidate here, they are extremely pro-coal. And even Labor supporters up here support coal. But they cannot distance themselves from national Labor.

You only need to look at Collinsville booths federal and state level in the last several elections to see the trends I am talking about. Look at federal 2016 in Capricornia and compare it to federal 2019/2022 and state 2020.

Easy LNP hold with the margin around 12-13%

The end of coal is coming for these folks whether they like it or not. The earlier they start diversifying their industries, the better off they’ll be. Simply voting for whichever party tells them what they want to hear the most will guarantee that they will experience an awfully hard landing 10-15 years down the track.

I seem to remember reading not long ago that Collinsville was one of the most rapidly shrinking places in Australia, so perhaps the wolf has already been to their door.

@wilson if they end coal what do they plan on exporting? air? the only reason qld has a surplus is because of coal. notice how the two resources states are the only ones with a surplus? and the federal government for that fact. without coal they wont have any money for services and the state will go further into debt like the rest and it will be deficit after deficit after deficit.

Labor’s candidate is Anne Baker, a former Mayor of the Isaac Shire who is described by the party as ‘one of Queensland’s most respected local government leaders’.

https://www.townsvillebulletin.com.au/news/former-isaac-region-mayor-anne-baker-announced-as-alp-candidate-for-burdekin/news-story/ba46bdd7f8f93f27c3c5403377c1351c

@Cooper despite the high-profile candidate I think the LNP will still win this easily, with a big swing to them (matching the statewide trend).

Predictions:

Primaries:
LNP: 53.4% (+13.7%)
Labor: 17.3% (–14.4%)
KAP: 12.3% (–1.9%)
One Nation: 7.5% (+0.5%)
Greens: 2.5% (+0.5%)

TPP:
LNP: 70.9% (+13.8%)
Labor: 29.1% (–13.8%)

The swing is big but smaller than in neighbouring seats since Labor’s running a former Mayor who is apparently popular.

Nether, It isn’t blowing out to 70%. That is biased. The seat is already LNP held on a decent margin so I suspect it will be a 6-7% swing. so around the mid 60’s for the LNP on the TPP. It will be ”Very safe” but not THAT safe.

I predict LNP will still be under 50% primary. Katter will do a bit better. Labor tiny bit better, One Nation better, and Greens a bit worse.

64-36 TPP for LNP.

@Daniel T that actually makes a bit more sense but I did a big prediction in Keppel too.

I’ve been doing a few predictions lately and they may be a bit bold and pro-LNP but I have stated that they won’t be exact and some may be a fair bit off, but it gives an idea as for what the swing will look like.

So far I’ve done Burdekin, Cooper, Gladstone, Keppel, Maiwar, Maryborough, Mirani, South Brisbane and Thuringowa.

Interesting to imagine where this seat would be now if Labor did slightly better in 2015 or 2017. You could imagine all incumbents hanging on vs LNP in 2020 and then Labor wondering if they could still hang in there in a seat that by all accounts had completely drifted away from Labor politically (this being the state seat with Clermont in it after all). There may be a story about other North Queensland seats in there.

As it stands the area has moved right more rapidly in the last decade than anywhere else in the country as far as I can tell. With Labor having no incentive to even try here I agree with speculation this will end up well in the 60s 2PP for the LNP.

I can see KAP/ONP gaining ground or at least campaigning heavily against the 75% emissions reduction target. This seat is dependent on coal and cattle and sugar cane. All three industries are big but declining. I don’t think their primary votes will stay put.

John,
You appear to be a little confused about Burdekin.
Burdekin is a traditional safe Country / National / LNP seat. The bulk of the population live in the farming areas on the coastal plain. Giru, Ayr, Home Hill is sugar cane while Bowen is vegetable growing.
Labor has only won Burdekin once in the 74 years it has existed.

The LNP hold just 3 of the 17 seats that are all, or partly, north of the Tropic of Capricorn. Labor hold 10 of the 17 seats.
Do you have any theories on why North Queensland voters have deserted the LNP?

Easy LNP retain, even with the strong Labor candidate. 10+% margin after the election.

I find it interesting that in some regions, KAP is the party of choice for those unimpressed with the majors, whereas in others, One Nation holds that status. KAPs sphere of influence is in North and Northwest Queensland, whereas One Nation’s is in the Mackay and Isaac local government areas. These two forces collide in Burdekin.

There was a significant boundary redistribution before the 2017 election, that cut out parts of Townsville and added in most of Isaac, changing the nature of the electorate. But for some reason KAP didn’t run in 2017, and One Nation surged in their absence. So the only election result that gives a useful guide to the KAP/ON vote in Burdekin is 2020, because it had the same boundaries and both parties were running.

That election showed that the support for each party is very split along LGA lines. The primary vote for KAP is around 20% in the booths within Townsville and Burdekin LGAs, but it dwindles in Isaac where the One Nation primary soars. In the middle is Whitsunday LGA, where KAP is the stronger of the two. Collinsville has a decent KAP primary, but the Bowen area still hasn’t fallen out of love with the Labor Party yet (or at least in 2020 they hadn’t). However, in the remainder of Whitsunday LGA in the electorate of that name, KAP do better in Proserpine but ON do better in Airlie Beach-Cannonvale.

What explains the varying preference between the two parties in different parts of the region? Is it based on the major industries in each area? (trades and white-collar industries in Townsville, cane farming in Burdekin and Proserpine, tourism in Airlie Beach and mining in Isaac)

@Wilson because Bob Katter is from North Queensland and he’s well-known up there.

@Watson Watch – Labor came close to winning Burdekin in 2015 and especially 2017. 2020 wasn’t close but government aligned incumbents did pretty well in the COVID election

Nether Portal, sure, but where does North Queensland end? How do we know this? What specifically makes some parts of Whitsunday prefer KAP and other parts prefer ON? I’m after answers that are a little less simplistic than “Bob Katter is from North Queensland”.

@Wilson North Queensland is generally defined as being north of Mackay I think. The different industries may have something to do with it too but neither party has a high vote in Townsville itself. Anyway KAP does better in rural areas anyway, like in the outback. KAP also has a high vote among Indigenous people.

@Nether Portal I think it’s not that simple. Pauline Hanson is from Ipswich but the highest ON vote is in Mirani. It’s almost like there’s an invisible line in the electorate of Burdekin that separates the KAP (from that point north) and ON (from that point south) vote.

@AA because of the appeal of the constituents. Many One Nation voters are ex-Labor voters who are working-class but more socially conservative than Labor and who work(ed) in the mining industry but then deserted Labor in recent years (I analysed this on another thread, it only really started in 2019). One Nation appeals to them by pro-mining and tough immigration policies as well as criticism of foreign investment/ownership and modern trade unionism. KAP appeals to socially conservative but economically nationalist rural voters who often work in the agricultural industry.

Nether Portal, I used to live in Mackay and my recollection is people there generally saw themselves as North Queenslanders.

In any case, I’m not content to just hand-wave KAPs support away as being what North Queenslanders do. Collinsville went from a 7% KAP primary in 2015 to 17% and 7% in 2020, and I’m interested in why that is, and why that type of gain didn’t go to ON in the same period. I don’t think it suddenly became part of North Queensland in such a short stretch of time.

KAP is obviously not an urban party, but neither is it non-existent in Townsville, it has a primary vote in the mid-high teens in a lot of booths.

That should read “to 17% in 2020”

@Wilson potentially campaigning and actual relevance of the party. Remember Bob only founded the party in 2011 so it took a while for him to expand his party outside Mount Isa and Cloncurry.

The Katter family has been well-known across a swathe of regional Queensland for nearly sixty years now, well beyond the Mount Isa-Cloncurry area, and well before the creation of the party in 2011.

It’s interesting to look at the maps of Kennedy over the years – https://handbook.aph.gov.au/Electorate/Kennedy/State/Queensland – When Robert Katter Snr was the member, the seat extended as far south as Murgon!

Labor almost won this 2017 when this was One Nation’s comeback election. Sam Cox, an ex-MP for Thuringowa, ran for ONP. I’m not sure if his high profile status boosted the party’s result. Labor came first on primaries but most ONP preferences went to LNP. He then ran for KAP in 2020 but didn’t get as much of the vote as in 2017. 2020 was when the combined major party vote increased overall (think the pandemic).

”Last increased her majority to win a third term in 2020.”

Just a quick correction, Last is a Man not a Woman.

@watson watch Are you aware of how different Burdekin’s boundaries are now compared to when it was established in 1950? The modern day seat should have been Labor held more often than not but their support has completely imploded in coal country and smaller regional towns, especially in Central and North Queensland. Acting like there’s not a problem is delusional frankly.

@ Laine, Do you know where i can find historical boundaries for state seats. This tool below allows us to look at federal boundaries over the years?
https://pappubahry.com/pseph/aus_stats/?plot=map&year=2013&colour_by=informal&multiple=max&geo_map=1

Aec website I imagine

Should be able to shed most if not all of its Townsville area to fix up the 3 townsville seats.
Furthermore Whitsunday and Burdekin lgas should fit into one district and Mackay can be split into 2 districts.
Rockhampton issac and Livingstone into 3. However I doubt they will go for radical change over temporary fix up.
So I’m gonna go for fix up until I can fix those issues.

@Nimalan Unfortunately no such tool exists for any of the states as far as I’m aware. I spent several years on and off just looking for the boundaries used for QLD’s 1986 and 1989 elections online, and while there is now a map on Wikipedia for both those elections, it’s still not as detailed as it should be. On the other hand, Victoria and New South Wales have all their state election maps on Wikipedia now I believe.

Queensland is very slowly digitising some of its old historical electoral maps, but none of it is completed and you’d have to request viewings in the state library or request digital copies. I would’ve already done either by now but both travel to Brisbane and my obsession with having the most exact/detailed boundaries means it would be an expensive endeavour.

Anyway, this was Burdekin’s boundaries in 1950 – https://www.archivessearch.qld.gov.au/items/ITM660571
The available 1949 state redistribution maps cut off alphabetically at Darlington (former GC seat)

I’m worked out the 3cp to be the following.
LNP 44.02%
LAB 35.93%
KAP 20.05%

KAP are still a few elections off making the 2cp so this should be safe for the lnp for a while. Though their strongest votes areas are the outskirts of Townsville which I expect to be lost to mundinburra. This should help the lnp retain that district in the future.

24% swing to LNP here, Labor will lose badly in these sorts of seats. Note the TPP will be closer because Labor won’t make final count in many of these seats, it will either will be PHON or GRN (Less likely)

Note that I speak of TPP swing, Labor vote will collapse but minor parties will get top 2 in many regional seats.

Are you suggesting the LNP will win 81% of the TPP vote here? Seems fanciful.

@Real Talk yep… The only seat in the country held by a margin of more than 30% is Wallsend in NSW. If that’s going to be matched anywhere at this election it will almost certainly be in Warrego and nowhere else. The continuously pedalled narrative of a Labor collapse in the regions has much truth to it but has been stretched out of proportion completely. At this rate election night on the Tally Room is going to consist of confused commenters wondering why the nonetheless still-massive swings are smaller than they predicted.

No, It will happen, just watch, absolutely confident. But the LNP TCP will probably be around 15-20 against One Nation or Katter

Laine, that is incorrect, Labor hold seats in WA with more than 30%, Try again.

I agree with @Real Talk and @Laine, the LNP won’t hold this with an 81% TPP vs Labor. There will be a big swing against Labor, but it won’t be as big as 24%. Especially with popular mayor Anne Baker running for Labor, and the Mining and Energy Union (which has a strong base in Moranbah and Bowen) throwing big bucks behind her campaign. I expect a swing from Labor to the LNP to be between 8% and 18%. It’ll probably be close to 12% – 15%. One Nation hasn’t had a strong campaign, and the Katters announced their candidate late, so neither party will make the 2PP at this election.

18% would still put it towards 75% so I can agree with that. But Warrego could go 90% vs ALP. ALP are bloodletting in the region, swinger will be small in inner city but massive in the regions. Labor won’t even get 5% in towns like Roma and this isn’t me cheerleading the LNP, I genuinely think the swings will be really violent in conservative areas due to the woke agenda. And the 50c fares don’t help people in coal country.

Ok, saying Labor gets 5% of the vote in towns like roma, and 10% of the vote in warrego, is not going to happen.

Saying that 90% of voters in the regions are “anti-woke” conservative culture warriors is just American-based stereotyping. Our country is not America, 90% of people won’t vote one way because of “woke agendas” or culture war issues.

Labor will probably get somewhere between 15% and 30% of the vote in Warrego, and towns like Roma, because there are still plenty of people like union members, public servants, nurses, social workers, retail workers and teachers who vote Labor. And there are a fair few people in the regions who vote progressively too.

Also, the 50c fares might not help people in coal country, but Labor has more policies – like the $1000 energy rebates and 20% off rego. And federal Labor passed “same job, same pay” laws. There’s a lot of union members in those areas who trust Labor to deliver a pro-worker agenda.

I’m just trying to point out that people in coal country and regional towns don’t all think the same way, and while there will be big swings against Labor, (they’re not winning Burdekin) there is still a diversity of opinion.

@Daniel T I think you’re really overstating the impact of a “woke agenda.” I lived nearly my entire life so far in the safe rural LNP seats of Warrego, Callide, Condamine, Southern Downs and Nanango. People don’t really care about that sort of thing. The vast majority bring it up as small talk and nothing more. Their margins are not going to blow out to WA 2021 levels because of a non-issue. The Labor government is just worn out at this point and no longer providing adequate services to the regions.

There may be large swings in these seats as there’s a historical precedence of the LNP wasting landslide margins in their heartland, but even so, it’s rather unlikely they hit 30%, let alone 40%. Australia is not like the US where social issues dominate elections, all the cities vote left-wing and all regional areas vote overwhelmingly right-wing. And it’s not going to become that way anytime soon either.

With a 55/45 vote for all of Queensland there cannot be the huge swings people are talking about in non.Brisbane areas unless there are no swings against Labor in Brisbane. It appears on this vote percentage Labor will hold approx 30 seats and if they can improve their vote 2 to.3% they may get to a max of 40 seats

You could be right but David Crisafulli is pulling record support not seen since Newman.

You are right to be skeptical of these predictions but I think the situation is rapidly deteriorating for Labor, Just look at a strong Labor man like Kos Samaras, even he is saying Labor is going to get obliterated, probably at the 2012 level.

People aren’t just wanting to kick the guts of Labor, but they are also voting FOR something, yes, FOR something, people are excited for the LNP because they are focusing on areas Labor has lacked on like Youth Crime and cost of living, while promising to keep good Labor policies such as the 50c fares and some of the rebates, and many parts of the budget they will honour. It is like a cake with extra frosting on top.

Maybe 5% in Warrego was overstated but the swing will be still massive. All signs are pointing to 2012 unless something significantly happens in the next 19 days or so.

60/40 is needed for a 2012 like result

Given the mantra that “oppositions don’t win elections, governments lose them”, I’d view with a massive grain of salt the sources declaring “record support” for Crisafulli, if they even exist.

It’s wonderful that you feel good about your vote for the LNP but don’t supplant your personal opinion and assume that every voter in Queensland – or “people”, as you state – feels the same way that you do.

@Real Talk no, Wallsend is not the only seat in the country on a margin of over 30%. It’s not even the safest seat in NSW.

* Cootamundra: 32.3% NAT
* Northern Tablelands: 33.8% NAT (31.9% NAT v SFF at the by-election)
* Wallsend: 31.8% ALP

Plus a bunch of Labor seats in Perth from the 2021 landslide.

As someone who lives near here, I could definitely see this seat hitting 70% TPP for the LNP, but not much than that. Crime isn’t quite as prevalent in Aur and Bowen as it is in Tonwsivlle or Mackay though.

@Real Talk I agree, from what I’ve seen, the swings to the LNP are mostly a protest vote against Labor (the “it’s time” factor). David Crisafulli is relatively unknown, and the LNP have been quiet about their specific policies (running a small-target strategy).

I agree with Daniel T’s predictions so far. The swing will be massive, people don’t like Labor in Queensland anymore. The best thing for Queensland Labor would be for them to lose and then rebuild with a new leader with hopes of forming a credible opposition at the next election.