ALP 0.01%
Incumbent MP
Tom Smith, since 2020.
Geography
Central Queensland. The seat of Bundaberg covers the central suburbs of the Bundaberg urban area, including Avoca, Svensson Heights, Thabeban, Kensington, Avenell Heights and Kalkie.
History
The seat of Bundaberg has existed continuously since 1888. Labor held the seat continuously from 1896 until 2006. The Liberal National Party held the seat for the next nine years, but the seat has changed hands at the last three elections.
Clem Campbell won the seat for the ALP in 1983. He held the seat until his retirement in 1998, when he was succeeded by Nita Cunningham.
Cunningham was re-elected in 2001 and 2004. In 2006 she resigned due to health issues. A by-election was not held, as Cunningham’s resignation prompted Peter Beattie to call an early election.
Bundaberg was won in 2006 by the National Party’s Jack Dempsey. Dempsey won re-election in 2009 and 2012.
Dempsey was defeated in 2015 by Labor’s Leanne Donaldson. Donaldson herself only held on to the seat for one term, losing in 2017 to the LNP’s David Batt. Batt only held the seat for one term, losing in 2020 to Labor’s Tom Smith by just nine votes.
- Geoff Warham (Independent)
- Tom Smith (Labor)
- Nat Baker (Greens)
- Alan Corbett (Independent)
- Ian Zunker (Legalise Cannabis)
- Alberto Carvalho (One Nation)
- Bree Watson (Liberal National)
Assessment
Bundaberg is the most marginal seat in Queensland. It has changed hands at the 2015, 2017 and 2020 elections and is very likely to be in play in 2024.
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing |
| Tom Smith | Labor | 13,053 | 43.1 | +8.8 |
| David Batt | Liberal National | 12,577 | 41.5 | +6.0 |
| Stewart Jones | One Nation | 1,766 | 5.8 | -16.6 |
| Ian Zunker | Legalise Cannabis | 1,669 | 5.5 | +5.5 |
| Claire Ogden | Greens | 964 | 3.2 | -0.3 |
| Shane Smeltz | United Australia | 244 | 0.8 | +0.8 |
| Informal | 1,105 | 3.5 |
2020 two-party-preferred result
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing |
| Tom Smith | Labor | 15,141 | 50.0 | +4.2 |
| David Batt | Liberal National | 15,132 | 50.0 | -4.2 |
Booths in Bundaberg have been divided into three areas: central, north and west.
Labor won a majority of the two-party-preferred vote in the centre, which is the most populous part of the seat, while the LNP won in the north and west. Labor also won the pre-poll vote, which made up over half of the vote.
| Voter group | ALP 2PP % | Total votes | % of votes |
| Central | 52.7 | 3,199 | 10.6 |
| West | 49.9 | 2,492 | 8.2 |
| North | 47.9 | 1,753 | 5.8 |
| Pre-poll | 50.6 | 16,084 | 53.1 |
| Other votes | 47.8 | 6,745 | 22.3 |
Election results in Bundaberg at the 2020 Queensland state election
Toggle between two-party-preferred votes and primary votes for Labor and the Liberal National Party.
Np:
Can you do the same sums for nsw?
@ NP
Yep i think Capalaba and Redcliffe are easier to gain than Pumicestone. I made a post about Caloundra in the Caloundra thread.
With respect to Bean it mainly consists of Brindabella and Murrumbidgee, The liberal PV on territory results will be around 40% which is probably too low to win the seat. It depends how Fiona Carrick and IFC preferences flow. There is a Family First vote in Southern Canberra but it is still lower than the Green vote
@ NP
have a look at the Caloundra thread and let me know what you think.
@Mick Quinlivan you mean pickups? Sure:
Coalition:
1. Wollondilly
2. Pittwater
3. Penrith
4. Camden
5. South Coast
6. Riverstone
7. East Hills
8. Monaro
9. Parramatta
10. The Entrance
Labor:
1. Holsworthy
2. Ryde
3. Drummoyne
4. Oatley
5. Miranda
6. Winston Hills
7. Goulburn
8. Epping
Terrigal will be a Liberal hold, but every other marginal seat is in play. Depending on what happens in Richmond, Ballina could be interesting too. Voters are finally starting to be turned off by seeing how left-wing the Greens really are.
@ Nether Portal
I feel East Hills is an easier pick up for the Coalition than South Coast. It is trending Liberal along the Goerges River. For the exact same reason i would push Drummoyne and Oatley down the list and push up Winston Hills. Winston Hills has some working class Labor territory and is where the two Sydneys meat. Miranda being a Shire based seat will be harder to pick up than Winston Hills.
In South Coast being a regional seat a personal vote for a sitting member will be important.