Bundaberg – Queensland 2024

Very curious that this seat exists as the hole of the donut that is Burnett. In this regard it is like no other seat in Queensland. I wonder if consideration had ever been given to splitting the seat and merging the eastern half with the Bargara side of Burnett, and the other half going with the Gin Gin – Agnes Water part of Burnett. Such an idea may run counter to the seeming desire to consolidate provincal city centres in their own seat – the seats of Hervey Bay, Gladstone, Rockhampton, Mackay, Townsville and Cairns all seem to be drawn in this fashion, whilst Toowoomba is split in half. I wonder what a future redistribution here may look like. Maybe if Callide needs more electors the ultimate knock-on effects would see Bundaberg as we know it change.

Labor barely won it at the last election. I would say LNP regain.

@Ben – minor typographical error “Election results in Pullenvale at the 2020” should read Bundaberg not Pullenvale… unless Brisbane has decided to take over here too. Keep up the good work though!

Still well over a year to go, but with current polling trends, you’d think the LNP would re-gain this seat again.

Thanks PO, Bundaberg was my first guide to write and I used the BCC guide as a template.

@ NQ View the dynamic between Bundaberg and Burnett is unique for now and has been for some time, but I suspect that if the larger regional electorates continue to fall behind the provincial cities, Rockhampton and Keppel may be forced into the same sort of situation.

To name the worst offenders – Mirani, Burdekin, Callide, Gregory and Traeger are doing quite poorly at keeping up with growth in the southeast of the state. Mundingburra in Townsville is the same, although it’s provincial. Elsewhere such as the Fraser Coast and Toowoomba region are doing more than fine.

When I’m bored I try to look at how these seats may be redistributed in the future assuming they continue to trend negatively, and I struggle quite a bit to come up with boundaries that make sense (with the assumption that parliament will not be expanded again so soon, and that no regional seat will be lost in favor of SEQ).

I got off on a bit of a tangent above and forgot to include any of my thoughts on Bundaberg – This seat is surely an LNP gain. I’ve spent quite a bit of time here in the past and it’s no more the Labor stronghold it once was. Even a tiny swing to the LNP statewide will send it back their way. I was shocked as it was when Labor took it in 2020.

This seat can entrench its sitting mp.. I would not assume this is a certain lnp win

Over 12% of Bundaberg are over the age of 75 (#2 in Queensland for people aged over 85). This is yet another division like Hervey Bay (#1 Aged Over 85+ in QLD) where Labor can attribute a lot of their success at the last election to the elderly staring down their own mortality at the height of the pandemic and thanking Palaszczuk’s strong Covid posturing at the ballot box (Early Voting Centre).

https://pseph.io/queensland-election-2024/profile/bundaberg

Again, like Hervey Bay, It is likely that there will be a receding of the tide here from 2020, let alone the fact that only ten votes needed to go the other way for LNP to hold onto this one last time.

Mick might be right though. There is a considerable chance of a sophomore surge getting Smith back over the line again.

I rate Bundy as a tossup or narrow LNP gain despite its ultra-slim margin. I wrote in the QLD election guide thread that Nicklin, Caloundra and Hervey Bay would probably be the first to flip back to the LNP. The first two are normally Liberal stronghold seats. Hervey Bay swings back and forth but there was a retiring LNP member in 2020. As @SEQ Observer alluded to – the hard border and pandemic politics played into Labor’s favour in seats with a large elderly population.

QLD does have some oddly shaped electorates that are a collection of small towns in between regional cities e.g. Mirani, Burdekin, and Burnett, on the other hand, encloses Bundaberg. You also have one each for Cairns, Townsville, Mackay and Rockhampton and separate ones for their suburbs. NSW doesn’t have regional electorates (e.g Port Macquarie, Coffs Harbour, Albury, Wagga Wagga) that are as geographically small as their QLD equivalents.

LNP have preselected Bundaberg Fruit and Vegetable Growers CEO and Qld Horticultural Council chair Bree Watson as their canidate. I agree with some of the sentiment that it would be foolish to completely write Labor off here. It has a strong Labor history in this seat and the recent years (Dr Death, member failing to pay her rates etc) aren’t really a fair reflection of it. However if the statewide polls are to be belived then I would think the LNP would certainly be favourites at the moment. But with incumbency, sophmore surge, and the seat with a strong Laor history. I think there will be resistance rather then then just the typical pendulum swing by just judging the margin.

@nightwatcen if they can’t overcome a 7 vote deficieir here they won’t be in government in QLD I can guarantee that. Should be a definite pickup for the lnp

I remember Albury nsw. Labor won narrowly and held the seat for 10 years. This is the unknown factor in non Brisbane seats… the personal vote

I could see the LNP gaining this (which they will) but then possibly lose this in 2028 if the LNP are on the nose and are a 1 term government. But that would also probably require the Coalition to be in power federally which is unlikely (or at least they would have only been in power for a few months since an election in 2028 federally is probable) and likely will be the last big test for a premier Crisafulli before he tries for a 2nd term which has not occurred successfully since Joh in 86′ for the conservative side.

If the LNP win in 2024 and lose this in 2028, This potentially will become the longest string of 1-term MP’s in the states history, unless anyone can name other examples at a state or federal level that changed hands after 1 term 4-5 successive times?

The federal seat of Bass also has a record of being an ‘ejector’ seat. It has changed hands after 1 term on 3 consecutive occasions (1993-1998 and also 2013-2019).

Yoh An,
A good example of polar opposites.

Bundaberg has elected just 2 Lib/Nat/LNP MPs since 1896 and it doesn’t look like there will be another one for a long time.

Labor will especially be done here if former MP turned independent, Jack Dempsey runs here and polls 10% and those preferences go to the LNP

@Ben Raue can you unlock a guide for a Townsville-based seat? I’m curious as to see how they vote.

C’mon man, I’m trying to make a living from this stuff. If it’s so useful for you, please sign up. It doesn’t cost much.

One of the first to fall on election night, with a swing of 10%, I predict.

LNP primary will lift about 5/6% to around 46% and Labor will end up in the mid 30s. So a fairly comfortable win.

Bree Watson seems to be a well credentialed candidate too.

@PRP I think it’ll be a bit more than that. A 20% swing wouldn’t surprise me.

Again, quite possible. I’m being a bit more cautious about the swing. But regional electorates will swing harder.

PRP,
Do you have any suggestions as to why regional electorates have swung so hard against the LNP?

In recent elections they’ve swung against the LNP, particularly due to Covid in 2020. But those margins are very vulnerable for Labor this time. Federally they still vote strongly for the LNP, other than Blair.

@Watson Watch many have actually swung to the LNP. In 2017 the swing was split with Labor doing better in South East Queensland while in the regions they did worse with the LNP gaining Bundaberg and almost gaining Townsville.

PRP,
Thanks for the reply.

Federally, Queensland nearly always votes strongly for the LNP.
In the last 75 years, Labor has won the Federal 2pp vote in Queensland only three times Those elections being, 1961 (50.7%), 1990 (50.19%), and 2007 (50.44%).
(https://www.aec.gov.au/elections/federal_elections/tpp-results.htm)

This will be one of the worst defeats for a sitting Labor MP, I am predicting a whopping 21% swing to the LNP with a margin of error of 5%

@Daniel T I agree this will be a safe LNP seat after the election.

No one can accurately guess the swing but to an extent it doesn’t matter a seat is either won or lost. And I’d it can swing big time against a party can swing back as well. I am sure this seat would have been “safe” on 2012 results

New polling has shown that Labor appears to have closed the gap, I’m expecting however a seat like this to switch back but It’s looking like might not be a 2012 style defeat.

The polling shows that Labor has closed the gap in the cities and suburbs, but the LNP are way ahead in the regions.

This seat is a surprise. I thought this was a goner as it has a huge over-75s population and the seat swung to Labor in 2020 due to Covid.

ABC says it’s a Labor retain. Pollbludger and ABC currently show a swing of 1.7% and 1.4% respectively to Labor with 80% counted. This is perhaps the only bright spot for Labor in regional QLD, other than maybe retaining Cairns.

I think the biggest surprise of this election would surely have to be Bundaberg (followed by if Labor keeps Gaven and wins back South Brisbane from the Greens).

Labor has not only retained it, but retained it with a swing TO them in a naturally conservative electorate when everywhere else went LNP in a landslide is…well extraordinary to say the least. Perhaps the local MP has built a good profile and the locals like him? I don’t know. But credits to Labor, who is now projected to have 3 seats in the regions (not including Ipswich and Logan seats) in Gladstone, Cairns and Bundaberg. The doom and gloom that Labor won’t hold any seats north of the Brisbane River turned out to be, well…all but an illusion.

@tommo they were always gonna hold Gladstone and the fact it’s now no longer a very safe seat but effectively marginal is kudos to the LNP. I wouldn’t write off Bundaberg or Cairns for the LNP either

@Votante I was expecting it to flip into the LNP column when the Early Voting Centre figures dropped today but apparently Labor survived that and will go on to hold it. Antony has called it as per the election feed on ABC as well, so it’s not just the computer saying it either.

I think this seat ended up being the one I most closely followed on election night, I probably annoyed my friends with how much I repeated over and over that there’s no way Labor would survive and how any minute now the LNP would pull in front. Incredible performance by Tom Smith as I mentioned in the election night thread!

Bundaberg was originally a labor stronghold until the Dr. Death scandal came to light but that happened so long ago that it is far removed from people’s memory.

Yolonde Entsch is scandalous, so Cairns being a Labor retain is not a total surprise.

I honestly thought this would be the first seat to be called for the LNP. I’m quite surprised at how well Tom Smith has performed, I think Labor’s cost-of-living policies have had an impact too.

The count was slow on election night due to the enormous amount of prepoll and postals. They had their usual ‘wait for the early voting’ caveats.

This was the most impressive win of election night and Congratulations to Tom Small. It really is an example of “Never Say Never” it is symbolic as this is a white working class electorate which is almost Trump/Brexit country.
It has been said that in future Labor may be able to form government without such Provincial seats maybe it is possible but very narrow 51% of the population lives outside Brisbane. It is the only state where the % of total state population living in the capital city has gone down over the last 50 years.

Potential paths without gaining seats outside SEQ (Need 11)

BCC seats (in order of likelihood)
1. Clayfield
2. Everton
3. Moggill
5. Maiwar (from Greens)
6. Chatsworth

Greater Brisbane seats
7. Capalaba
8. Redcliffe
9. Redlands
10. Pumicestone
11. Oodgeroo

GC/SC seats
12. Caloundra
13 Nicklin
14 Coomera
15. Theodore

So it is possible but everything needs to go well for example winning a seat like Moggill which they have never won before and Maiwar of the Greens. If they loose a seat like Bundaberg, Cairns, Gladstone then they will need pretty much sweep all 15.
Also seats like Pumicestone, Oodgeroo have a high median age, a lot of asset owners and are really not progressive anyway so if Labor is not doing well in the regions i dont know why they will do well there.

https://www.abs.gov.au/articles/50-years-capital-city-population-change#share-of-state-population-change

looks like Miles birthday cake flight paid off

@Nimalan Clayfield is small-l-liberal, and the redistribution will likely make it much worse for Labor as it becomes more centred on the suburbs west of (and including) Clayfield which are mostly affluent (Albion, Ascot, Eagle Farm, Hamilton and Hendra). If those suburbs east of Clayfield have grown enough there is a very real chance Clayfield itself could be moved into another seat and thus Clayfield would be renamed (perhaps to Hendra to avoid confusing it with Hamilton Ward).

As for the other seats:

BCC:
* Everton: it all needs to go well for them to win this
* Moggill: no, this is an affluent seat, this would require a Labor landslide (even more so than Clayfield)
* Maiwar: probably not
* Chatsworth: again all needs to go well for them here

Greater Brisbane:
* Capalaba: target seat
* Redcliffe: target seat
* Redlands: trending LNP so probably one they won’t focus on
* Pumicestone: target seat
* Oodgeroo: again same as Redlands

Gold Coast/Sunshine Coast:
* Caloundra: target seat
* Nicklin: unlikely that Labor will fuss over this one
* Coomera: future target seat but Labor might need a few elections to win it since it’s still LNP-leaning
* Theodore: no, won’t happen unless Labor wins in a landslide

Personally I think what Labor needs to do in Queensland is consolidate its base in Brisbane. They need to be prepared to lose Bundaberg, Cairns and Gaven, especially if the MPs there retire (which is unlikely to happen for a while since Meaghan Scanlon was elected in Gaven in 2017 and Tom Smith was elected in Bundaberg in 2020). They need to be prepared to have a fight on their hands in Brisbane seats like Ipswich West, Logan, Lytton, Mansfield and even Toohey which could potentially flip next time. The Greens need to watch themselves too, they already lost South Brisbane so if the Greens keep messing up they could lose Maiwar to either Labor or the LNP (in fact on council results Maiwar is an LNP seat).

@ Nether Portal
Can you mark out the most the most likely scenario in terms of seat for Labor to regain Government.

Don’t think Labor can win without provincial city seats.
But if even some erosion the lnp need Gaven and extra Brisbane based seats…should Bruce Saunders recontest than Maryborough is possible

@Nimalan sure, this is based off margins and my own analysis:

1. Pumicestone
2. Capalaba
3. Caloundra
4. Redcliffe
5. Clayfield (current boundaries)
6. Redlands
7. Everton
8. Nicklin
9. Coomera
10. Chatsworth

And the opposite:

1. Aspley
2. Gaven
3. Bundaberg
4. Pine Rivers
5. Cairns
6. Macalister
7. Springwood
8. Mansfield
9. Ipswich West
10. Logan

The interesting thing is most Brisbane seats are either marginal or fairly safe for Labor or the LNP, and if the next election is a landslide if the swing was uniform and the boundaries were the same Labor might only hold one seat (Woodridge, which is on an 18.3%) since everything else has a margin of under 15%.

Basically the 2024 state election looks like a landslide on seat change, (the LNP had a net increase of +17 seats, while Labor had a net decrease of –15 seats) while the TPP swing was +7.0% to the LNP, the LNP’s TPP was only 53.8% (in 2020 Labor’s was 53.2%) and they only have a five-seat majority (the same as Annastacia Palaszczuk’s majority in 2020). Labor actually holds more seats now than the LNP did in 2020 because this time the crossbench shrunk in a surprise twist to the election.

@ NP
That is 10 seats Labor needs an 11th to win government on current boundaries. I personally think Pumicestone will be harder now that the LNP has a sitting member it is less urban than than Radcliffe or Capalaba so while it maybe in top 10 i think below those two seats. Ideally, they should win 14 since they may loose South Brisbane to Greens or a seat or two the LNP.

@Nimalan if they are to win a third, it would be a South East Queensland seat.

Now that I think about it maybe Capalaba above Pumicestone?

Based on the state results Labor would have 12 federal seats: Blair, Bonner, Brisbane, Dickson, Griffith, Lilley, Longman, Moreton, Oxley, Petrie, Rankin and Ryan, while KAP would hold Kennedy and the LNP would have the other 17 seats (only two in Brisbane though: Bowman and Forde). In the NT on the other hand Labor would have no seats and Solomon would be safer for the CLP than Lingiari. Am I saying Labor wil win gain any federal seats in Queensland? No, just as I’m saying the federal Coalition probably won’t gain Solomon unless it’s a landslide for them, but it just goes to show the tale of two elections that were only 63 days apart (the Canberra Liberals also did much better than their federal counterparts in the ACT election despite not actually winning enough seats to form government, though Bean would likely be a Liberal seat on territory results).

*mean to say 11th not third I don’t know how I made that mistake

Provincial city ignore margins
Towoomba (2)
Rockhampton (2)
Mackay (3) incl Mirani
Mt Isa (1)
Townsville (3)
Cairns area (3) includes Cook
Hervey Bay(1)
Maryborough (1)
These are the seats Labor does not hold