Aspley – Queensland 2024

Mellish is the new Transport Minister. I wonder if his relatively slim margin compared to other South East Queensland Labor-held electorates was a factor, as elevating him to the ministry is a serious profile boost. He does have some background in transport policy though.

I know it was reported in November in the Australian, the Together public sector union polling showed Labor holding leads in Aspley and Mansfield. And while it was a union poll, it wasn’t a poll that showed all good news for Labor suggesting losses in seats in Townsville to the LNP and seats to the Greens in Brisbane’s inner city.

Former Brisbane city councilor Amanda Cooper was the LNP’s candidate last state election. But there is no mention if she is going to recontest despite Cooper still sitting on the LNP executive.

I agree that Aspley and Mansfield are both divisions that are likely to remain Labor held at the election. I would put this down to mostly demographic changes that have progressed in both divisions over the last decade. While I expect classic 2PP swings towards LNP throughout much of the state, I think that this will be relatively muted and negligible within Brisbane City’s sphere of influence, while up to 10% elsewhere.

The demographic changes that have progressed in Aspley and Mansfield has been the growth of South Asian populations observable in statistics like Indian Ancestry and Hinduism.

Aspley is interesting though in that it is a Top 5 division in Queensland for people Aged Over 85, which might make it slightly more favourable to the LNP than Mansfield. Mansfield remains younger by median age.

Mansfield is also now significantly more culturally and linguistically diverse. It is increasingly influenced by the presence of Griffith University and dense apartments in its Eastern corner. Mansfield is composed of significant populations of Chinese, Koreans, Vietnamese and a notable Islamic community.

Mansfield has historically been regarded as one of the more Christian parts of Queensland, constituting Brisbane’s Bible Belt. But today its Christianity (as observed in the ABS data) is not particularly significant when compared to the rest of Queensland. I would make the caveat here that while Mansfield no longer remarkably stands out with its proportion of Christianity, it is still notable as far as “urban” or “capital-city” divisions are concerned. I would also caveat that there are some notable congregations within these boundaries that residents in surrounding divisions would attend. This perpetuates the notion that Mansfield is a part of Brisbane’s Bible Belt. Neighbouring Chatsworth and Springwood are still notably quite Christian for example.

Agree seq observer, Mansfield may be similar to what areas like epping and carlingford in Sydney were like 10-15 years ago, with a declining share of the ethnically white population and more migrants from Asian background moving in.

Former councilor Amanda Cooper will be recontesting the seat of Aspley for the LNP it was reported in the Courier Mail.

As in 2020, Aspley will be really interesting to watch. It will be a Mellish v Cooper 2020 rematch, and I think it’s the 10th (?) most Marginal Seat Labor-held in Queensland, and by far and away the most marginal Labor-held seat in Brisbane itself (the others all have 10%+ margins, but correct me if I’ve got that all wrong). Lydia Lynch’s article in The Australian today suggests that the LNP are presently on track for a 54-46 2PP, which would mean an 18-seat swing; it’s very hard to see the LNP’s pathway to Majority, or even Minority Government without winning this Aspley.

Bart Mellish’s elevation to Minister for Transport and Main Roads following the change in Premier might work in his favour (although it’s worth noting that being a former Newman Govt Minister, Tim Nicholls’ Shadow Education Minister, and a LNP frontbencher for 6 years didn’t seem to work in Tracy Davis’ favour when she lost Aspley to Mellish in 2017). Mellish’s 3.99% TPP positive swing in 2020 was on par with the State average, which he probably consolidated to a degree for being a far more polished and present State Rep than his predecessor (in my opinion). However, his promotion to the TMR portfolio could also mean he is now the Minister responsible for explaining conjestion on Gympie Road, and he’ll also likely go into the campaign touting the Beams Road Overpass Project for the third election in a row, with construction only have started in January 2024.

Cooper is a strong candidate; from memory there was speculation about her possible elevation to the frontbench if she was successful in Aspley 2020, given her tenure in the Council Civic Cabinet. She has been elected as a State LNP Vice President since 2020, and was also appointed to the Board of Infrastructure Australia for a few years after her loss in 2020 – not an insignificant feat for a local gov rep. However, it will have been approx 5 years since she held elected office as Councillor for Bracken Ridge Ward (which only has two suburbs which overlap with the Aspley State Electorate; Bald Hills and Carseldine – I think?) by the time voting starts later in 2024.

What is interesting about her as a candidate is that, as far as I can tell, she’s the only candidate in Aspley and the overlapping (and quite possibly surrounding) State and Council seats who has actually had a primary vote swing towards them since the LNP electorate high-point of 2012 (albeit a moderate primary swing of 0.77%). In constrast, from the 2016 BCC election onwards all of the other LNP incumbents in Bracken Ridge, McDowall, and Marchant Wards, and in Aspley 2017, had negative primary and 2PP swings.

The 2020 live video electorate debate series (can’t remember if it was a Courier-Mail or ABC live-steam) got pretty heated between Cooper and Mellish during the Aspley portion – my personal impression watching it was that was a higher-than-average level of animosity between these two candidates, and one can imagine that’s only going to intensified the second time around.

It is hard to say what issues will affect how this seat falls, but it does seem that crime, particularly car theft, is something of a local issue in LNP-leaning suburbs like Bridgeman Downs and McDowall. On the flip-side there’s a pretty strong anti-development sentiment in those suburbs, so it will be interesting to see the results in the overlapping LNP-held BCC Ward of McDowall (Tracy Davis’ name pops up once again here).

Aspley is likely too far from the ‘inner city’ to face much of a swing to the Greens; all in all it seems like it is once-again a must-win for a change in Government, so both major parties will be targeting it heavily.

I think Cooper wins this time and I also wouldn’t be surprised if she’s elevated straight into Cabinet. She’s well regarded in the LNP and had a successful career on council. Definitely a strong contender.

Very probable LNP gain. Remember that Aspley was super marginal before the 2020 election. Most of the swing towards Labor in the last election was purely down to COVID.

Seeing that Mellish is the Transport Minister he may retain the seat by the skin of his teeth thanks to the 50c fares

@Caleb the things is though this is historically meant to be a Liberal seat.

List of members for Aspley:

1. Fred Campbell (Liberal, 1960-1980)
2. Beryce Nelson (Liberal, 1980-1983)
3. Brian Cahill (National, 1983-1986)
4. Beryce Nelson (National, 1986-1989)
5. John Goss (Liberal, 1989-2001)
6. Bonny Barry (Labor, 2001-2009)
7. Tracy Davis (LNP, 2009-2017)
8. Bart Mellish (Labor, 2017-present)

The seat has had eight members, six from the Coalition (three Liberals, two Nationals and one LNP member who would’ve sat with the Liberals) and just two Labor members. Labor has only held the seat for 17 years in its entire 64-year existence.

17 of the last 24 years though.

Agree NP and others (PRP/Furtive above) that Aspley is a likely LNP gain (probably >80% chance of victory). This seat whilst considered swing like in nature is still naturally conservative leaning as Labor only wins this at high tide elections. It is probably akin to a seat like Ryde or Winston Hills in NSW, both conservative leaning swing seats.

Agree NP and others (PRP/Furtive above) that Aspley is a likely LNP gain (probably >80% chance of victory). This seat whilst considered swing like in nature is still naturally conservative leaning as Labor only wins this at high tide elections. It is probably akin to a seat like Ryde or Winston Hills in NSW, both conservative leaning swing seats.

Aspley’s electoral profile shows 5 candidates on the ballot
https://www.pollbludger.net/qld2024/LA.htm?s=Aspley

LNP gain.

Cooper is barely leading Mellish as more absent votes are counted. I still pick an LNP gain here, but Cooper will need to do a lot of work here to hold.

I’ve been watching this one too as its my sisters electorate and obviously so close with the count. Its going to be so close whoever ends up winning. Am I the only one that finds it frustrating that the ECQ has taken the 2PP count off their website? Surely they could keep it running even as absent votes come in. We have to wait another week to know what is happening with the preferences. Even the ABC website is showing an estimate only now. The AEC website keeps the 2pp count going the whole time as the absent votes come in so you always know who is likely to win for the Federal elections. I don’t understand why the ECQ can’t do the same. The AEC site and processes are far superior in my opinion.

It’s been reported Amanda Cooper likely to be offered a cabinet post if she wins Aspley. But the longer this contest drags on the more it diminishs those chances with the lnp keen to get the frontbench sorted.

It’s likely to end up in recount territory so if Crisafulli is keen to get started Cooper will miss out.

If Mellish hangs on then the LNP returned to power without gaining a single new seat in the Brisbane City Council area. Though that factoid is hollow with Redcliffe, Pumicestone, Capalaba and Redlands generally considered part of “Brisbane”.

It will be an interesting 4 years but Labor has a path back to government by winning back those 4 seats and Aspley if they lose it, getting back on the board in the Cairns area using the seat of Cairns as a base, and maybe getting back in the game on the Gold Coast (e.g. a seat spawning off Coomera) or the 2020 Sunshine Coast gains that are still surprisingly marginal.

That’s on the assumption that the regional areas Labor was wiped out at this election are gone for good, as they are federally. (Unless Gladstone is close enough to Rockhampton and Keppel to keep Labor out of the wilderness there)

Unlike Territory Labor, Queensland Labor actually has a path back to government, as BNJ mentioned. They hold a majority in Brisbane and Ipswich as well as one seat on the Gold Coast and one seat in Cairns. Outside those areas though they only hold two seats (Bundaberg and Gladstone). Bundaberg will be an LNP target next time for sure.

Aspley is interesting in that it is a middle ring increasingly CALD area a bit like Mansfield. The other seats such as Pumicestone and the Redlands Council seats are very white and almost demographically more like seats outside Brisbane. Average voter age is high and so is homeownership. In Gold Coast, i think Coomera and Theodore are the best pick ups.

Grace Grace will be the only person in Labor caucus to have previously been in opposition.
Even Cameron Dick has never been there.
Probably best to let Miles continue on just to see who finds their feet and who doesn’t.

@gympie umm when was she in opposition?

Agree John, the 7 Labor MP’s (9 if you count Yvette D’Ath and Anthony Lyneham as winning LNP seats midterm at by-elections) who served during Campbell Newman’s term as Premier have all retired from parliament.

OMG, they’ve got no one who’s ever been in opposition.
Obviously this happened with the National Party in 1989, but it’s unusual.
———————————————————————————
Anyway, if Grace became Oppo leader, there’d be Sicilian/Australians heading both major parties?

no member of the curretn opposition has ever been in opposition before

@Nimalan it’s interesting that Labor does better in CALD areas in Brisbane but the LNP does better in CALD areas on the Gold Coast. Money would have something to do with this as the affluent beachside suburbs of the Gold Coast are CALD whereas in Brisbane it’s the working-class inland suburbs that are CALD.

Also, @Gympie, Grace Grace lost her seat in 2012 and won it back in 2015 and thus she has never been in opposition (since she first won it in 2007 when Labor were still in government).

I think some on here are overstating the diffculty of transition from government to opposition. It’s the transition from opposition to government that is harder. The Newman government found the transition harder then expected less familiar with the codes and conventions of governing which part was of the reason for their downfall.

The next Crisafulli government will have a reasonably inexperienced front bench in this term governing.

PN, I guess the same is also true for Steven Marshall’s cabinet in SA and also for Chris Minns in NSW. Any party that takes office after a long period in opposition would likely have this issue in terms of MP’s who had not previously served as Cabinet Ministers under a former government. The recently elected CLP government in NT is also in a similar situation with only Chief Minister Lia Finocchiaro having past ministerial experience.

That’s a good point, though Bleijie, Bates, Crisafulli, Langbroek, Nicholls, Andrew Powelll and Tim Mander [briefly] were Ministers 2012-’15, Fiona Simpson was Speaker.

@ Nether Portal
Yes i agree wealth is a better predictor of voting patterns than cultural diversity so that answers the Question for the Gold Coast as wealth is most concentrated along the beach. In Brisbane, you can see middle class CALD areas that can be found be in the middle ring of suburbs such as Mount Omannany, Mansfield and Aspley and poor CALD areas such as Waterford,Woodridge, and Inala.

Probly gonna be the most marginal seat in qld

@John yep 50.1% LNP at the moment.

According to the Courier-Mail, LNP sources think that ALP is 38 votes ahead as of now. Projection by ABC has LNP 98 votes ahead but that is just an estimate, it’s very plausible for preference flows to be stronger than estimated after late counting considering the nature of the late swing to Labor this election.

https://archive.is/8DpyY

“LNP sources said preference flows in Aspley on Friday indicated Mr Mellish was just ahead of contender Amanda Cooper.
Whichever way it falls the northern seat is likely to become the state’s most marginal electorate, replacing Bundaberg.
It’s understood Mr Mellish is ahead by a wafer thin 38 votes, with a bundle of postal votes still to come in.”

@Adda regardless postals will elect the LNP.

@NP Late postals do not favour the LNP very strongly, if at all, and there’s hardly any votes remaining. It might flip back (and it’s inside recount territory either way) but if the LNP think they are behind, it’s a pretty strong indication that Labor are well placed.

This will be like Bundaberg 2020 about 10 vote margin

Think np is right unless there are errors made or Labor actually wins the postal votes.
The later postal votes should reflect the later swing to Labor..

ABC has Bart Mellish ahead by 19 votes now. Is there anything left to count?

ABC got this on there website Labor retaining this by 17 votes. If there was confirmation the LNP’s campaign was a flop in Brisbane it was the failure to win Aspley. And the strong council and federal results that get brought up on this site can sometimes be irrelevant because that doesn’t necessary translate to winning state seats as seen by Aspley, Ferny Grove, Stafford, Mansfield, and Mount Ommaney.

And while abortion gets brought up significantly as the reason the LNP can’t win Brisbane seats. This may be only part of the problem. Unlike there Brisbane city council counterparts the LNP don’t have a strong track record of being a effective centre right government. The banging on about youth crime with the controversial Jarrod Bleijie as your deputy may work as a treat in the regions. But some in Brisbane may see it as the past of the combative Newman government with the VLAD laws along with the public sackings which moderate voters in Brisbane don’t want a bar of.

The LNP needs to build in Brisbane while still keeping their other seats. This, Mansfield, etc will be top tier targets and Logan and Lytton will also be targets. Lytton depends on whether the council LNP improve or not there I think.

will likely be subject to a recount to confirm the margin given it was so slim.

When will the ECQ formally declare the seat?

Latest alp won….
Recount?
If so alp 36
Lnp 51

The KAP has screwed up the much of the election especially in Brisbane for the LNP just like what the Greens did to Labor in 2019. Aspley was traditionally a Blue ribbon Liberal electorate that the Libs only won at high tide elections. It was a seat that Wayne Goss never won and Labor did not win in 1998, 2009 and 2015 even though they formed governments at each of those elections This will be the first time ever Labor holds Aspley in opposition and with no gains in Brisbane council. The only reason the LNP was able to form a government in 2015 with so few seats in Greater Brisbane is because 52% of the population of QLD lives outside Brisbane. This is not possible in any other mainland state.

Umm nimalan I think u made some errors..

“Aspley was traditionally a Blue ribbon Liberal electorate that the Libs only won at high tide elections”

“The only reason the LNP was able to form a government in 2015”

@ Darth vader yes sorry typos
Blue ribbon that only Labor won in high tide elections.

the only reason LNP formed gover

Pressed enter too soon.
the only reason LNP formed government in 2024 with so few seats in Greater Brisbane

KAP did this to make a hung parliament. It’ll be interesting to see if they modernise their position from being anti-abortion to anti-late term abortion.