Woodridge – QLD 2020

I know from local sources 2 weeks back that the LNP still had no-one interested in running in this seat. Can you blame them? Safe as houses for the ALP and the added Treasurer profile will only help here.

Prediction (August 2020): ALP Retain

This means I’ve finally have commented a prediction on every seat. And I have to say I’m willing to change up to about 10 of my August predictions already from the comments and updates from this site. My final numbers (August 2020) predictions is as follows:

ALP – 39, LNP – 33, KAP – 3, GRN – 2, ON – 1, IND 1, TOSS-UP 14
Caloundra – Lean LNP, Chatsworth – Lean LNP, Cook – Lean ALP, Gaven – Lean ALP, Glasshouse – Lean LNP, Keppel – Lean ALP, Lockyer – Lean LNP, Maryborough – Lean ALP, Mulgrave – Lean ALP, Mundingburra – No Idea, Pumicestone – Possible ALP Gain, Thuringowa – No Idea, Townsville – Good Luck Picking This One!, Whitsunday – Lean NQF

Including the leans: ALP – 45, LNP – 37, KAP – 3, GRN – 2, ON – 1, NQF – 1, IND – 1, TOSS-UP 3
(I just really can’t decide on those 3 Townsville electorates. So much campaigning here, it’s hard to work out who has their nose in front. But it’s certain ALP will loose 1 and most likely all 3 of the Townsville seats.) This would be a prediction of ALP MINORITY. Look forward to hearing predictions from others 🙂 I’ve got 2 weeks now to relax before I have to go through all the predictions again at the end of this month and then election day.

I’ve finally come to the last seat and my original post here disappeared into the ether.. so second time lucky. It’s taken me 2 weeks to get all my August Predictions out (didn’t want to spam every seat at once) and can’t believe in 2 weeks it’ll be time to do my September Predictions… up to at least 10 seats I want to change already and some is thanks to the wonderful comments on campaign updates and information on here 🙂

Firstly, this seat Prediction (August 2020): ALP Retain. Safest ALP seat really says it all. I know from local sources that the LNP hadn’t received interest in this seat as of early last week, can’t blame them. I also know from an ALP source (not for this seat) that there are some other big resignations to come and they were right about Kate (Cooper) and Anthony (Stafford), so I’ll bite and see if anything drops in the next week.

Totals from my August Predictions:
ALP 39, LNP 33, KAP 3, GRN 2, ONP 1, IND 1, TOSS-UP 14

Toss ups: Caloundra – Lean LNP, Chatsworth – Lean LNP, Cook – Lean ALP, Gaven – Lean ALP, Glasshouse – Lean LNP, Keppel – Lean ALP, Lockyer – Lean LNP, Maryborough – Lean ALP, Mulgrave – Lean ALP, Mundingburra – No Idea/Too Open, Pumicestone – Lean ALP Gain, Thuringowa – No Idea/Too Open, Townsville – No Idea/Too Open, Whitsunday – Lean NQF

Adding the leanings I get:
ALP 45, LNP 37, KAP 3, GRN 2, ONP 1, IND 1, NQF 1, No Idea 3 (the townsville seats – my townsville bias might be clouding my judgement here)
*The second GRN being South Brisbane. (August 2020 Govt Prediction: ALP Minority)

Enjoy and look forward to all the upcoming predictions and further election talk 🙂

Thanks politics obsessed…. You have picked close to status quo. A alp minority govt….. Lnp needs every one onside to govern.

As perhaps the most “nothing to see here” seat in the state this might be a good place to talk general predictions. Politics_Obsessed I think mine more or less line up with yours except:
* I think all 3 Townsville seats are definite ALP losses, and most likely to LNP
* I think the Greens will take McConnel and/or Cooper (former more likely)
* I don’t think PHON have any chance in Lockyer or any other seats they don’t currently hold. They will only retain Mirani
* I think Moggil is in play (Clayfield would be too if not for the GRN candidate dropping out), and Oodgeroo as well for IND, though both lean LNP. Keeping an eye out for whether Greens select a late star candidate for Clayfield or if they run dead (I suspect the latter).
* Mackay is also in play. Lean ALP but it will be very marginal for only the 2nd time ever (first was in 2012)
* Glass House seems to be lining up nicely for the ALP but it’s still a toss up, and same for LNP in Keppel
* KAP on their own merits will only hold their 3. However an overall factor I haven’t really taken into account is a concerted effort from Labor to get KAP as a potential coalition partner elected over LNP in various parts of regional QLD. I have no idea where that could play out if anywhere. I’m keeping an eye out for Labor tanking in regional seats where they would normally be competitive.

I think that puts ALP in a better position to form government than LNP but it will be messy.

Libs often have difficulty in getting candidates in safe Labor Seats. It costs a Lib a lot of money to run for Parliament. With no prospect of winning seat becomes less and less attractive.

@John that’s why I chose this seat as opposed to putting it on the main qld candidate thread so it didn’t clutter up that section. Thanks for the prediction feedback and hearing your own. Like I said I did that prediction over a month ago (originally posted on pollbludger) and only got around to posting hear now
-Lockyer is one in my current September predictions I’m moving from TOSS-UP to LNP Retain, so I agree with you on that one.
-Moggil I did mention on another seat threat, with McConnel I consider higher Green Targets due to being 20%+ first pref at last election (there were 7, Clayfield was just under 20%). Cooper is interesting and again, a lot has changed since I did my original predictions. Can’t wait to see the information on those campaigns : )
-Townsville seats – it’s because there’s just been so much campaigning from all parties here it’s hard to pick a winner. Townsville really is open and Thuringowa hard to pick. Mundingburra I’m leaning for either a LNP or KAP gain since the ALP pulled out. Deb Frecklington visiting shows how confident the LNP are becoming up here.

All that means is this election is starting to get spicy : )

I forgot to add I think Barron River is an LNP gain (but I think Labor will hold Cairns and Cook).

So overall I think right now

PHON: 1
IND: 2 (+Oodgeroo)
KAP: 3
GRN 4: (+Sth Bris, McConnel, Cooper)
LNP 42 (+ Townsville x3, Barron River, Keppel, Whitsunday) (- Pumicestone, Oodgeroo)
ALP 41

So ALP + GRN +:2 INDs (“left” coalition) but potentially LNP + KAP + INDs

Again, messy

ALP really need to find a 2nd gain off LNP to seal the deal on government. Glass House and Caloundra are neighbouring seats (and not far from Pumicestone) and both could work. Alternatively getting some KAP up over LNP would weaken then LNP claim.

LNP have scope for more seats in North QLD but none are gained quite as easily as the ones I’ve listed. PHON aren’t going to do well enough to be a sole coalition partner, but it will also hurt LNPs ability to form government with INDs.

I think Palaszczuk gets a 3rd term but it won’t be a joyous celebration for ALP.

I’ll leave my prediction here too. This is the first election that I have really followed quite carefully and first commenting on Tally Room so I’ll see how I go keeping in mind I could be completely wrong.

– Firstly I think whoever wins the election will be from a minority gov – I dont see any of the 2 major parties forming a majority.
– I think, like many others, that the 3 Townsville seats will fall from ALP to LNP, as well as Barron River. I think ALP will lose Aspley to LNP, but possibly gain Pumicestone.
– I think LNP will gain back Whitsunday
– I see PHON holding Mirani – i dont think they’ll gain Keppel and Maryborough but they could.
– I think Greens will hold Maiwar, and gain Sth Brisbane and McConnel. But I think ALP will hold Cooper.

So these numbers make:
ALP 42, LNP 43, GRN 3, KAP 3, PHON 1, IND 1

Assuming Noosa Ind sides with Labor, and obviously GRN would, and KAP and PHON side with LNP then LNP would win minority gov with the exact amount required at 47LNP-46ALP.

@Kieran lovely to have you on board and thanks for the prediction : ) this year I’ve taken more of an interest in the elections of NT and QLD, with my NT prediction being way off (underestimated CLP surge, TA failure, 5 close contests could have flipped either way, over-hyped IND) so it’s all in good fun : ) I really haven’t done predictions for about 10 years, so can say I’m a bit rusty myself.

Find your prediction interesting and it’s amazing how close this election can be, it’s a tough one to pick!

Woodridge joins Callide as the two seats I had down as only have one candidate running so far that I can find. Not much time left to get someone to run!

Totals from my September Predictions:
ALP 35, LNP 35, KAP 3, GRN 1, ONP 1, IND 1, TOSS-UP 17

Toss ups: Aspley – Lean LNP Gain, Barron River – Lean LNP Gain, Burdekin – Lean LNP Retain, Cairns – Lean ALP Retain, Cook – No Idea/Too Open, Gaven – Lean ALP Retain, Keppel – Lean ALP Retain, Maryborough – Lean ALP, McConnel – Lean ALP Retain, Mulgrave – Lean ALP, Mundingburra – No Idea/Too Open, Pumicestone – Lean ALP Gain, South Brisbane – Lean GRN Gain, Thuringowa – No Idea/Too Open, Townsville – No Idea/Too Open, Whitsunday – No Idea/Too Open

Adding the leanings I get:
ALP 42, LNP 39, KAP 3, GRN 2, ONP 1, IND 1, NQF 0, No Idea 5 (the townsville seats, whitsunday and cook)

I may have been a bit harsh on the ALP with Aspley and Cook. Even with that alp 44/lnp 38, it’s still a minority. ABC had an article today which confirms what we already knew, those Townsville seats will impact the election. If they go LNP with Whitsunday [and i ignore my aspley prediction] that brings it alp 44/lnp 42. But either way you look at it, ALP is in the box seat for a third term.

(September 2020 Govt Prediction: ALP Minority)

Following Sportsbet’s odds, Libs are ahead in Whitsunday, Mirani, Keppel and Barron River. Liberals and Labor tie in Townsville. Pumicestone turns from Liberal to Labor and Greens win McConnel and South Brisbane off Labor. This leads to:
ALP: 44-45 (down 3-4)
LNP: 41-42 (up 3-4)
KAP: 3 (same)
Greens: 3 (up 2)
Independent (Sandy Bolton): 1 (same)

Ladbroke’s odds have LNP ahead in Barron River, Keppel, Mundingburra, Townsville and Whitsunday. Labor would lose McConnel and South Brisbane to the Greens. Pumicestone is even between LNP and ALP. Burdekin stands as even between LNP and KAP. This leads to:
ALP: 43-44 (down 4-5)
LNP: 41-43 (up 3-5)
KAP: 3-4 (same or up 1)
Greens: 3 (up 2)
Independent (Sandy Bolton): 1 (same)

Should these results come true, most likely result would be Labor minority. Also, it seems consistent that South Brisbane, McConnel, Keppel and Barron River would be lost. Pumicestone and the Townsville seats seem lineball and will be decisive.

Likely next Labour leader if Labour was to lose (Miles won’t be leader he is weak and doesn’t have the best speaking skills and would be embarrassed if he became leader because while his seat is relatively safe it isn’t rock solid. So it would be unwise to pick Miles. Dick would be a better bet

Agree Daniel. Despite Miles being a contender, Dick would probably be the best pick for Labor should they lose. I can’t really see any other ministers having a chance for leadership (Kate Jones perhaps but she is retired now). One thing though is if both contest for the leadership, who will have the support of the majority in caucus, particularly if factions come into play.

Prediction: ALP Retain

Totals from my predictions (with too close to calls/leans):
ALP 42, LNP 44, GRN 2, ON 1, KAP 3, IND 1

Gains:
South Brisbane – GRN Gain, Townsville – LNP Gain

Too Close to Calls/Leans:
Aspley – Lean LNP Gain, Barron River – Lean LNP Gain, Cook – Lean ALP Retain, Gaven – Lean ALP Retain, Keppel – Lean LNP Gain, Mansfield – Lean ALP Retain, McConnel – Lean ALP Retain, Mirani – Lean ON Retain, Mundingburra – Lean LNP Gain, Pumicestone – Lean ALP Gain, Thuringowa – Lean LNP Gain, Whitsunday – Lean LNP Gain

I agree with all of RH321’s predictions except McConnel which I think will fall to the Greens and Mirani will fall to the LNP.

Thuringowa i think will fall to either KAP or LNP, but I can’t see it being retained by Labor.

Current predictions:

ALP definite 35 with likely another 5 (Cairns, Cook, Gaven, Mansfield and Pumicestone)

LNP definite 36 with likely another 9 (Aspley, Burdekin, Caloundra, Currumbin, Glass House, Mirani, Mundingburra, Oodgeroo, Redlands)

Greens definite 2 with likely 1 more (McConnel)

Katter Party definite 3 with likely 1 more (Thuringowa)

Independent definite 1 (Noosa)

PRP and RH, reasons as to why you think the LNP will win the election? The opinion polls and betting markets disagree with you and Morrison is unpopular which doesn’t help anyone, And historically the governing party in Canberra doesn’t gain state elections from the opposition with the exception of SA 2018 and TAS 2014 but what did those 2 have in common? Both ALP governments were in power for a long time (16 years)

Interesting that posters are using Woodridge to post their state-wide predictions.
Here are my predictions:
ALP >= 40% primary vote
LNP <= 30% primary vote
ALP to hold all their current seats & gain Burdekin, Whitsunday, Mirani, Bundaberg, Pumicstone, Chatsworth + at least 1 on the Sunshine Coast & at least 2 on the Gold Coast.

My guesses may be completely wrong. We will find out on Saturday night.

ALP retain

ALP keep

OK this seems to be the place for final projections

ALP: 47
Lose to LNP: Barron River, Mackay, Townsville, 45
win from LNP:: Bonney, Bundaberg, Caloundra, Chatsworth, Coomera, Pumistone 51
Lose to Katter: Cook, Mundingburra,Thuringowa 48
Win from PHON: Mirani 49
Lose to Greens: South Brisbane, Cooper 47

LNP: 33 – other than those listed above
net loss to ALP 3 – 36
Lose to Katter:Burdekin, Burnett 34
Lose to greens: Mogill 33

Net Katter 8
Net Green: 5
Independent: 1

Additional changes where it will be very close:Cairns, Glass House, Oodgeroo, Redlands, Whitsunday

I will probably be way way off but I have not put any money on it

I should of course add Mconnel to the marginals but i think ALP will stay over the line there -just

@Maverick, speaking as Green I think you’re a bit too optimistic about our chances. While Greens may increase their vote in Cooper and Moggil, the chances of winning them this time around is very minimal. McConnell is 50/50 and Greens probably slight favourites in South Brisbane and should retain Maiwar.

ALP to lose a few and gain a few else where. I think they will probably keep their majority

ZH
I agree that Mogill is a bit way out but Cooper is very likely. I have been closely following in one prepoll and the swing to Greens is stunning, A complete reversal of the last election where ALP was well ahead of Greens now at best neck and neck – a 5-6% swing.. Now the key issue is who gets ahead and the reality is that if that 55 swing were across all booths the greens will be ahead in all but 5 booths.

The greens claim to have door knocked 14,000 houses and certainly the response from voters indicated that they had been contacted.

Labor retain, could run a carbon rod for Labor here.