LNP 9.5% vs KAP
Incumbent MP
Ann Leahy, since 2015.
Geography
South-Western Queensland. The seat covers the south-western corner of Queensland, bordering New South Wales and South Australia. Warrego covers Balonne, Bulloo, Murweh, Paroo, Roma and Quilpie council areas and parts of the Western Downs council area. The seat’s major centres include St George, Cunnamulla, Thargomindah, Miles, Roma, Quilpie, Dalby and Charleville.
History
The seat of Warrego has existed continuously since 1865. The seat was held by the ALP continuously from 1908 to 1974. The seat has been held by Country/National/Liberal National MPs since 1974.
Neil Turner won Warrego for the Country Party in 1974. He held the seat until 1986. He later returned to Parliament as Member for Nicklin from 1990 to 1998, when he lost to independent candidate Peter Wellington. He served as Speaker of the Legislative Assembly from 1996 to 1998.
Howard Hobbs won Warrego for the National Party in 1986. He was re-elected for a further nine terms, and retired in 2015.
LNP candidate Ann Leahy won the seat in 2015, and was re-elected in 2017.
Candidates
Assessment
Warrego is a safe LNP seat.
2017 result
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing |
| Ann Leahy | Liberal National | 11,949 | 47.6 | -5.0 |
| Mark O’Brien | Labor | 5,441 | 21.7 | -4.7 |
| Rob Loughnan | Katter’s Australian Party | 5,329 | 21.2 | +16.5 |
| Mark Stone | Independent | 863 | 3.4 | +3.4 |
| Ian Mazlin | Greens | 775 | 3.1 | +0.3 |
| Sandra Bamberry | Independent | 732 | 2.9 | +2.9 |
| Informal | 1,100 | 4.2 |
2017 two-candidate-preferred result
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing |
| Ann Leahy | Liberal National | 14,917 | 59.5 | -5.0 |
| Rob Loughnan | Katter’s Australian Party | 10,172 | 40.5 | +40.5 |
Booth breakdown
Booths in Warrego have been divided into four areas: Dalby, Roma, Balonne and the west.
The LNP won a majority of the two-candidate-preferred vote (against Katter’s Australian Party) in all four areas, ranging from 53.6% in the west to 64.2% in Balonne.
Labor came second on primary votes but missed out on the top two. The Labor primary vote ranged from 19.6% in Roma to 34.4% in the west.
| Voter group | ALP prim | LNP 2CP | Total votes | % of votes |
| Dalby | 23.0 | 58.3 | 6,369 | 25.4 |
| Roma | 19.6 | 54.5 | 3,712 | 14.8 |
| West | 34.4 | 53.6 | 1,734 | 6.9 |
| Balonne | 26.0 | 64.2 | 1,305 | 5.2 |
| Pre-poll | 24.8 | 60.0 | 5,015 | 20.0 |
| Other votes | 15.3 | 63.3 | 6,954 | 27.7 |
Election results in Warrego at the 2017 QLD state election
Toggle between two-candidate-preferred votes (LNP vs KAP) and Labor primary votes.
This was one of 4 seats that KAP finished in the 2CP in 2017 (they won the other 3, Hill, Hinchinbrook & Traeger). Will be interesting to see if KAP can maintain it’s vote and stay in the 2CP again, while it has a heavy focus on the Townsville seats. Of the past 3 elections (2012/2015/2017) Labor only made the 2CP in 2015.
Prediction (August 2020): LNP Retain
There wasn’t a One Nation candidate here in 2017, which made things easier for KAP. In Callide and Condamine, where both parties ran, One Nation got about double KAP’s vote.
@BoP: that’s a good point and note the KAP’s base is in and around Townsville and northern QLD, whereby the ONP v KAP head to head was between 1-5 % difference in ONP favour (Cook, Hinchinbrook, Mundingburra, Thuringowa) as opposed to 12% in Condamine and 13% in Callide which are further south.
Quite bothered that One Nation chose to nominate a candidate both here and in Hinchinbrook, especially given it appeared they weren’t going to until the ECQ finally listed all the candidates for each electorate. I’m hopeful that this either has little effect on/or is positive for Gurnett but things are kind of up in the air given One Nation’s performance in Warrego in the past and how the electorate’s borders have changed since 1998.
Interesting to see Mark O’Brien is having another crack for Labor. This will be the fourth time he has stood for Warrego. He stood as an independent in 2012, and has stood for Labor three times the following elections. O’Brien is a good candidate and a former Murweh mayor who makes Labor’s primary vote probably higher then it should be.
He’s best result was 2015 when he got Labor in the final two party preferred vote at 34%.
Prediction: LNP Retain
I don’t see how much can change in the next three days so I think I’ll be pounding the gavel on my own electorate here.
Rick Gurnett is a good candidate, and although I disagree with him and the Katter party itself on a number of important issues, I would much prefer him representing us than the LNP. At the end of the day though, Dalby is the largest urban centre in this division and it’s his biggest blockade. The LibNats have been quite strong there historically and especially taking into account the events of the past few months I just can’t see them shifting their support in favor of Labor or the Katter’s. Maybe the KAP can make some inroads but it just doesn’t seem that Gurnett appeals to them well. Very difficult for the Katter’s to have any path to victory which still involves Leahy winning Dalby booths by upper 50s, if not 60s % of the vote.
I’d love for a KAP win here but unfortunately it just seems outgunned by establishment-supporting LibNat voters in the bigger towns. To be fair I haven’t seen much of the ground game, things seem quiet but they’re somewhat equal in terms of campaign signs at least.
LNP will probably retain. Hopefully with a significantly reduced margin.
LNP retain
LNP but big swing to Katter