KAP 28.5% vs ALP
Incumbent MP
Rob Katter, since 2017. Previously member for Mount Isa 2012-2017.
Geography
North-Western Queensland. The seat of Traeger covers the city of Mount Isa and a large mass of northwestern Queensland, stretching from the NT boundary to Charters Towers. The seat covers the local government areas of Burke, Charters Towers, Cloncurry, Croydon, Doomadgee, Etheridge, Flinders, McKinlay, Mornington, Mount Isa, Richmond and parts of Carpentaria.
History
Traeger was created in 2017, but is mostly just a replacement for the seat of Mount Isa, which had existed since 1972. It had been predominantly won by the Labor Party.
Alex Inch won the seat for the ALP in 1972. He lost in 1974 to Country Party candidate Angelo Bertini. He held the seat until 1983, when he was defeated by Labor candidate Bill Price. Price himself was defeated in 1986 by Liberal candidate Peter Beard. Beard held the seat for one term, losing in 1989.
The ALP’s Tony McGrady won the seat in 1989. He held the seat throughout the 1990s, and became a minister in 1998. He became Speaker of the Legislative Assembly in 2005, and retired in 2006.
Labor’s Betty Kiernan held Mount Isa for two terms from 2006 to 2012.
In 2012, Kiernan lost Mount Isa to Rob Katter. Katter, the son of federal MP Bob Katter, ran for Katter’s Australian Party. Labor suffered a large 18% swing and Kiernan was relegated to third place. Katter was re-elected in 2015.
Katter won the renamed seat of Traeger in 2017.
Candidates
Assessment
Traeger is a very safe seat for Rob Katter.
2017 result
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing |
| Rob Katter | Katter’s Australian Party | 13,638 | 66.2 | +17.9 |
| Danielle Slade | Labor | 3,416 | 16.6 | -1.7 |
| Ron Bird | Liberal National | 2,071 | 10.1 | -18.5 |
| Sarah Isaacs | Independent | 683 | 3.3 | +3.3 |
| Peter Relph | Greens | 443 | 2.2 | +0.2 |
| Craig Scriven | Independent | 342 | 1.7 | +1.7 |
| Informal | 847 | 4.0 |
2017 two-party-preferred result
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing |
| Rob Katter | Katter’s Australian Party | 16,163 | 78.5 | +12.4 |
| Danielle Slade | Labor | 4,430 | 21.5 | +21.5 |
Booth breakdown
Booths in Traeger have been divided into three areas. Polling places in Mount Isa have been grouped together, with the remainder divided into north and south.
The Katter’s Australian Party two-candidate-preferred vote (against Labor) ranged from 70.9% in Mount Isa to 81% in the south.
| Voter group | LNP prim | KAP 2CP | Total votes | % of votes |
| Mount Isa | 6.8 | 70.9 | 5,666 | 27.5 |
| South | 11.9 | 81.0 | 5,079 | 24.7 |
| North | 6.3 | 80.7 | 1,305 | 6.3 |
| Pre-poll | 8.7 | 80.0 | 5,443 | 26.4 |
| Other votes | 16.8 | 84.6 | 3,100 | 15.1 |
Election results in Traeger at the 2017 QLD state election
Toggle between two-candidate-preferred votes (KAP vs Labor) and LNP primary votes.
It goes without saying that KAP will keep this seat.
In the event of a hung parliament, which way will they go should they hold the balance of power? What is their price of supporting a weakened Palaszczuk government, or propping up a first term Frecklington ministry?
Deputy Premier Katter? Minister Knuth?
It depends on numbers. If LNP need One Nation to get the numbers for government, then they won’t be able to get Sandy Bolton (or the Greens for that matter, not that LNP+Greens is really a possibility).
If Labor+Greens and Liberals+PHON had roughly similar numbers, I could see KAP working with Labor similar to the current NZ situation – a formal coalition with KAP while Greens give confidence and supply. This is much more likely to be stable than any situation where KAP can pull support at a whim This means the Katters could extract a high price. I think Deputy Premier Katter would be the result. This would also signal to North QLD that Labor are closer to their firebrand politicians than the Greens – something they want to convey hard right now.
Labor directing preferences to KAP in seats where it’s competing with PHON and LNP would set this up nicely.
Check out that Mornington Island booth. 70% for Sarah Isaacs (Mornington deputy mayor), Katter a distant second and informal third. Very similar to the Aboriginal independent campaigns in parts of the NT (Mulka, Arnhem, Barkly), although the much bigger Qld seats make winning anything just about impossible.
John
No chance of Katter working with Labor after the funding for staff debacle/ screw over. Political bastardry is seldom forgotten, nor forgiven. That is just the top of a very long list of offences.
Prediction (August 2020): KAP Retain
Look this is a no brainer really, and Robbie raising his profile as the Leader of the KAP. The big question will be the 2024 QLD Election or a possible by-election 2022-2025. Bob Katter is 75 and won’t be around forever (Bob Katter Snr lived to age of 71). He’ll probably run again in 2022 Federally, but then it’s a case of when he finally retires, will Robbie step up to Kennedy (Federal) or stay in Traeger (QLD). If he steps up to Kennedy, then this seat really does open up…. but for now Traeger is KAP; safe as houses. There was interesting talk on Cook seat profile about the Indigenous vote and remote communities… one thing I’ve heard is Bob has that relationship and trust of them, something Robbie has yet to earn fully. This takes time and could be why Bob has been campaigning with Robbie in those communities, grooming him to really take over the reigns.
When third parties form govt with one of the big two, it tends to be with the party currently in opposition. eg: UK 2010, Lib Dems supported the Conservatives; WA 2008, the Nats supported the Libs; NZ 2017, NZ First supported Labour; Tas 1989, Greens supported Labor.
The WA example is relevant here: there was serious talk of an ALP-Nat govt after the 2008 election. One of the reasons that didn’t happen is that they would’ve needed the Greens in the upper house. The Nats could conceivably work with Labor, but the Greens were a bridge too far. Same thing here: there’s no way the Greens and KAP can exist in the same government. Palaszczuk can’t herd all those cats.
Marnie Smith announced today as the LNP candidate for Traeger.
I think Labor will finish again in the top two here. But only just.
Interesting strategy from Palaszczuk, spending her first day in the safe Labor seat of Lytton followed by today, in the safe KAP seat of Traeger.
I note Deb is in Nudgee today, which I wouldn’t have put high on their radar. Maybe this campaign is less about marginal seats, but more about the overarching campaign announcements.
Annastasia Pasaszczuk was in Mount Isa today to announce an agreement with the $1.8 billion Copperstring project. The project Robbie Katter has supported for his electorate. There is a speculation that she is doing it to get on Katter Australia Party good side if a minority government has to be formed. But she has denied that was her motivation, and has said she hasn’t even spoken to Katter before the announcement.
KAP will probably form a minority government with the LNP though. I doubt KAP has forgotten Labor striping extra funding from KAP in 2018 after it refused to denounce comments from senator Fraser Anning who was then in their party at the time.
KAP held seats constituencies are conservative despite Katter’s seat of Traeger been held by Labor previously. The seat of Mount Isa held by Labor’s Tony McGrady have that DLP type conservative working class voter.
Its why Robbie Katter is reluctant to completely go gang busters on Labor. He has criticized the LNP for preferncing the Greens over Labor. As he has alot of working class voters who vote for him in his electorate.
Yes I’m getting the impression that Labor in minority may prefer to go for a KAP coalition than with Greens, and a Jacinda type coalition where KAP get preferential treatment if they need both. They may see snubbing the Greens as their path back in the once marginal federal seats in regional QLD.
John
it may just be a recognition that there are no more than three seats that Greens can gain but four in Townsville alone ( I classify Burdekin as part of Townsville in this respect) that Green influence can lose for ALP.
LNP’s irresponsible decision to treat their own attainment of peer as more important than the economic prosperity of Queensland will cost them primary votes but will deliver preferences to Greens.
Any coalition voter who follows the LNP How to Vote card is rejecting the party of Menzies and totally rejecting the Old National Party tradition
It is good to see Green Army and Qld Resources Council advocating a put the Greens last Campaign.
Prediction: KAP Retain
Huge surprise, Robbie wins.