Toowoomba South – QLD 2020

LNP 10.0%

Incumbent MP
David Janetzki, since 2016.

Geography
South-East Queensland. Southern parts of the Toowoomba urban area, specifically covering the suburbs of Glenvale, Harristown, South Toowoomba, Rangeville, Centenary Heights, Kearneys Spring, Middle Ridge and parts of Darling Heights.

History
The seat of Toowoomba South has existed since the 1972 election. It was won by the ALP at the first election but has been held by the National Party (now the LNP) ever since.

Peter Wood won Toowoomba South in 1972. He had held Toowoomba East since 1966, but moved seats when his old seat was abolished. He was defeated in 1974 by the Country Party’s John Warner.

Warner held the seat for the National Party until 1986, when he was succeeded by Clive Berghofer, also by the National Party.

Berghofer had served as Mayor of Toowoomba since 1982, and continued to serve as Mayor while sitting in Parliament. In 1991, changes in legislation banned the practice of councillors sitting in Parliament, and Berghofer resigned from Toowoomba South in order to retain his mayoralty. His term as mayor ended in 1992.

The 1991 Toowoomba South by-election was won by the National Party’s Mike Horan. Horan held Toowoomba South until 2012, and served as Leader of the Opposition from 2001 to 2003.

In 2012, Horan was succeeded by the LNP’s John McVeigh.

McVeigh was re-elected in 2015. He resigned in 2016 to successfully contest the federal seat of Groom at the 2016 federal election.

LNP candidate David Janetzki won the subsequent by-election, and was re-elected in 2017.

Candidates

Assessment
Toowoomba South is a safe LNP seat.

2017 result

Candidate Party Votes % Swing
David Janetzki Liberal National 14,893 46.5 -8.1
Susan Krause Labor 8,626 26.9 -7.9
Jeremy Scamp One Nation 5,273 16.5 +16.5
Alyce Nelligan Greens 2,308 7.2 -2.5
Rob Berry Independent 923 2.9 +2.9
Informal 1,243 3.7

2017 two-party-preferred result

Candidate Party Votes % Swing
David Janetzki Liberal National 19,208 60.0 +1.6
Susan Krause Labor 12,815 40.0 -1.6

Booth breakdown

Booths in Toowoomba South have been divided into three areas: north-east, north-west and south.

The Liberal National Party won a majority of the two-party-preferred vote in all three areas, ranging from 53.1% in the north-west to 60.4% in the south.

One Nation came third, with a primary vote ranging from 14.6% in the north-east to 20% in the north-west.

Voter group ON prim LNP 2PP Total votes % of votes
South 15.5 60.4 7,425 23.2
North-East 14.6 56.2 6,003 18.7
North-West 20.0 53.1 5,457 17.0
Pre-poll 16.9 63.5 6,796 21.2
Other votes 15.8 65.3 6,342 19.8

Election results in Toowoomba South at the 2017 QLD state election
Toggle between two-party-preferred votes and One Nation primary votes.


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9 COMMENTS

  1. As mentioned in T’ba Nth, ALP has more chance in getting that seat in this one ever again really. Depending how they view the current govt’s progress, the ALP vote could drop a bit but whether the ONP holds up to go to second place, unlikely, but not impossible. I still reckon LNP vs ALP with improved LNP margin.

    Prediction (August 2020): LNP Retain

    I actually don’t know why this seat is more LNP than T’ba Nth, considering similar demographics were found in both seats. But as mentioned in T’ba Nth in the comments, this city really does vote like a country town.

  2. Politics obsessed
    Demography of Toowoomba South at least parts in East is extremely wealthy. It resembles Buderim with Grand Houses and grand gardens. What surprised me was how low LNP vote was in Rangeville. I would have expected much more than 59%. 68% and 63% in Middle Ridge is surprisingly high. Middle Ridge is older suburban homes not flashy but neat and tidy.

    I will have a look at ECQ figures today.

    Having just spent a week in Toowoomba for Carnival Flowers in a house on Rangeville Middle Ridge border I saw no evidence whatsoever of campaigning in Toowoomba South.

    One Nation voting being higher in West than East makes sense.

    Toowoomba is going to be one of very few Queensland seats with a Daily local Newspaper. Brisbane’s Courier Mail is not really local. I think there are now local daily local papers in only Townsville and Toowoomba. There are some regional privately owned provincial weekly papers but not many.Brisbane’s throwaway papers have all gone electronic. This is a slow decline before closing them completely. This is going to impact on campaigning. Many voters only got the free throwaways and about 20% in my street never picked them up off the footpath.

  3. @Andrew Jackson – I live in Toowoomba South and I’ve haven’t noticed any campaigning, yeah – contrasts with Brisbane with very visible red, blue and green shirts on the streets. Coming into Toowoomba there’s a sign for the two local members as you drive up the hill, and further back, one for a PHON candidate, and I believe that’s all I’ve seen so far. Probably a fairgone conclusion for both Labor and the LNP that these two seats will remain where they are.

  5. JM
    Thanks my comment was about Toowoomba South. I saw evidence in Toowoomba North, Condamine and Lockyer.
    GPS of course has a love affair with certain streets and directs you through those streets meaning that a corflute could easily be missed.

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