ALP 3.6%
Incumbent MP
Mick de Brenni, since 2015.
Geography
South-Eastern Queensland. Springwood covers northern parts of the City of Logan and western parts of the City of Redland, on the southern fringe of Brisbane. Springwood covers the suburbs of Rochedale South, Springwood, Daisy Hill, Shailer Park, Logandale and Mount Cotton.
History
Springwood repeatedly changed hands throughout the 1980s and 1990s, but has mostly remained in Labor hands in recent years, barring one term.
The seat was first won in 1986 by the National Party’s Huan Fraser. He briefly served as a minister in 1989 before losing his seat at the 1989 election.
Molly Robson won the seat for the ALP in 1989, and held it for two seats before losing to the Liberal Party’s Luke Woolmer in 1995. The ALP was hit in Springwood in 1995 due to a controversial tollway planned to be built through a local koala sanctuary. The Democrats polled over 18% and the Liberals won in a huge swing with preferences from other candidates.
Grant Musgrove won the seat back for the ALP in 1998. He resigned from the ALP in 2000 after being embroiled in a scandal involving fraudulent electoral enrolments, and he was replaced at the 2001 election by Labor candidate Barbara Stone.
Barbara Stone held Springwood for four terms, from 2001 to 2012. In 2012, Stone lost to LNP candidate John Grant with a 19.5% swing.
Grant lost his seat to Labor’s Mick de Brenni in 2015. de Brenni was re-elected in 2017. He has served as Minister for Housing and Public Works since 2015.
Candidates
- Mick De Brenni (Labor)
- Janina Leo (Greens)
- Judy Rush (Animal Justice)
- Kirrily Boulton (Liberal National)
- Glen Cookson (One Nation)
- George Sokolov (United Australia)
- Ian Sganzerla (Civil Liberties & Motorists)
Assessment
Springwood is a marginal Labor seat, but has tended to stay in Labor hands outside of the conservative landslide of 2012.
2017 result
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing |
| Mick De Brenni | Labor | 13,289 | 44.2 | +3.8 |
| Julie Talty | Liberal National | 12,117 | 40.3 | -2.1 |
| Neil Cotter | Greens | 2,721 | 9.0 | +0.4 |
| John Taylor | Consumer Rights | 1,961 | 6.5 | +6.5 |
| Informal | 1,490 | 4.7 |
2017 two-party-preferred result
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing |
| Mick De Brenni | Labor | 16,125 | 53.6 | +2.2 |
| Julie Talty | Liberal National Party | 13,963 | 46.4 | -2.2 |
Booth breakdown
Booths in Springwood have been divided into three areas: central, east and north.
Labor won a large majority of the two-party-preferred vote in the north (59.6%) and the centre (59%). The LNP narrowly won in the east (51.4%).
| Voter group | GRN prim | ALP 2PP | Total votes | % of votes |
| North | 9.6 | 59.6 | 6,481 | 21.5 |
| East | 9.7 | 48.6 | 5,769 | 19.2 |
| Central | 9.1 | 59.0 | 5,638 | 18.7 |
| Pre-poll | 7.3 | 49.3 | 6,688 | 22.2 |
| Other votes | 9.8 | 51.5 | 5,512 | 18.3 |
Two-party-preferred votes in Springwood at the 2017 QLD state election
September prediction: Labor retain but one to watch if the overall consensus closer to the election is people are starting to get tired of the Labor gov.
2019 fed 58/42 lnp 2017 state 51.44/48.6 alp different of 9% what will be the result I don’t know but I suspect the least likely result will be a lnp absolute majority. Alp is competitive on the gold Coast which is peculiar to state level politics
If you look at Springwood, it could almost attest to being a bell-weather seat. National 1986-1989, ALP 1989-1995, Liberal 1995-1998 [ofc ALP won ’95 before the void and by-election changed that], ALP 1998-2012 (inc. the ALP member briefly going IND and loosing at ’01), LNP 2012-2015, ALP 2015-present. I had this down as a retain just based on the COVID response, despite the small margin. If the mood on COVID changes, this one is, as agreed with Feel the Bern, one to watch. Greens not selecting a candidate so far where AJP is standing might be tactical to put resources elsewhere. We’ll see closer to nominations if a Greens candidate does emerge.
Prediction (August 2020): ALP Retain
It been reported in the Courier Mail this campaign has gotten a bit grubby. There is a pamphlet circulating that has personal attacks against Labor figures including Mick De Brenni, but it hasn’t been authorized by the LNP. They are former members of the Liberal party who are behind it. So while the LNP are free to say they are not behind it. It doesn’t stop someone doing the dirty work for them despite them suggesting they condemn it.
De Brenni as Sports minster is getting flack for the way he is handled the sporting grants program. Is it going to play a role in the outcome of this seat? Probably not. Steve Wardhill wrote in the Courier Mail yesterday Redcliffe, Ferney Grove, and Springwood are unlikely going to be in striking distance for the LNP. There just too high up on the pendulum for the LNP on the current polling.
Labor retains.
I agree, Springwood would normally fall if a swing was on the cards, but it doesn’t seem like this election that is the case. Next time maybe?
Prediction: ALP Retain
Very slight LNP win.
ALP retain
ALP