South Brisbane – QLD 2020

I don’t think “A Greens member said something mean on Twitter” is going to win back the votes Labor lost over Adani and generally being a centre right pro fossil fuel party in QLD,.

However it does show they’re going to throw the kitchen sink at this seat and campaign along similar lines to Victoria 2018. People who vote for the Greens generally want to feel very good about their vote; one never “holds their nose and votes Green”

Suffice to say these tactics might just work, but it’s not like the Greens couldn’t see them coming.

I think this seat is still a GRN gain

Furtive Lawngnome
Well mate, it didn’t take long for the answer to your fairly aggressive, dismissive, & somewhat abusive challenge to A. Jackson & myself on another thread, to be beautifully illustrated, ( by the Greens themselves) !!. Did it !?

However it doesn’t look as if you’ve made the connection. Don’t worry i’ll get to it, for you soon !!. Pay attention to my next post to Bennee.

I agree that one Greens member getting into gutter will not have much of an impact. A condemnation of gutter tactics by the party might have lessened impact. But this seat will be a cliff hanger anyway and not many votes may affect outcome.
I disagree that Labor is pro fossil fuel.
Neither ALP nor LNP will state clearly that fossil fuel is more reliable cheaper and sensible option for Queensland.
If ALP had any spine they would convert South Brisbane into a renewable fuel hub and with railways coming to a halt it would take Green voters less than a month to be pleading to be put back on to grid. High rise schools and buildings would not be popular if they involved climbing 20 flights of stairs because electricity was as reliable as South Australia’s.
Somehow ALP have to get message out that South Brisbane does not live in a bubble it is dependent on Clermont, Blackwater and Moranbah for its high standard of living. Both major parties are weak when it comes to attacking Party of Concrete Centre. Which party has Parliamentary offices with artificial turf. A vote for Greens has consequences, no dams, ? drinking recycled sewage full of viral infection and Lord knows what else.
Brisbane Dams are at 60% we will be on water restrictions early in 2021 but no party is addressing this issue. Bradfield will not benefit Brisbane’s water supply it’s benefits are West of Toowoomba and mainly South of NSW border.

AJ – Agreed – How many of the Greens housings don’t have wood, clay bricks or concrete or other like materials. Maybe your idea to stop the trains and turn off the fossil fuel power supply will kill the party completely or greatly reduce their votes.

Yeah, guys. Wind turbines and solar panels are gateway drugs to COMMUNISM. *rolls eyes*

John Meyer (ex-Green candidate in Clayfield) is running here as an independent – he’s got an axe to grind. This just got messy.

winediamond, I don’t remember challenging either of you about anything, let alone aggressively or abusively. I think the only time I addressed either of you was to ask why you were derailing the Thuringowa thread to whinge gratuitously about political parties you don’t like.

I suppose if Meyer runs his preferences to the ALP or pushes the Greens into third could help Labor keep the seat?

How much support has Meyer got?Has he any backers?
His preferences are meaningless unless he can control them. I doubt if he can take votes from Greens and move preferences to ALP.
It seems likely that he may split Greens Primary vote but I suspect most will return to Greens as preferences.

AJ: Next to none as far as I can tell, but if he can arouse enough curiosity about his ejection from the Greens, which the Greens themselves have largely avoided commenting on but for the barest details, stupidly as far as I’m concerned, then it might well help weave the narrative of toxic Greenies which is clearly the Hail Mary throw Labor is committing to now.

I don’t know what MacMahon’s problem is but the way she’s refusing to defend against obvious quotemining and allowing Labor’s narrative to stand unchallenged is practically political malpractice. Here’s a short summary for those who haven’t seen the movie and are interested in the actual context of the ‘scandal’:

https://www.pedestrian.tv/news/queensland-election-mean-girls-greens-labor/

The only real good faith reading of the of the situation is that the worst thing the branch secretary did was to repeat some bad words to parody Trad’s own meaningless insults, to draw an analogy between Trad’s muckraking and a cartoonishly vindictive and spiteful movie character, and that Labor are deliberately misrepresenting Joanna Horton’s tweet to make her look like a misogynist or slut shamer or whathaveyou because they’re desperate to distract from Jackie Trad’s actual, real corruption and mismanagement. Again, why MacMahon refuses to say as much is just mind-boggling timidity.

While the accusations against Meyer are nothing like thise against Buckingham, the “real Green independent” running primarily to comment on his former party is pretty similar. For comparison Buckingham had enormous social media influence and his ticket didn’t amount to much, nor did the Labor candidates quoting him to talk about how the Greens hsve lost their way (Elly Howse in Balmain) gain much.

Meyer is less tainted by the nature of his departure, but doesnt have much profile either. It is also clear he doesn’t have anything driving him but bitterness at this point (while Buckingham had a full policy platform off the back of the campaigns he ran under the Greens).

I don’t think Meyer will get his deposit back or hurt the Green vote much directly.

But again, Labor seem to be throwing absolutely everything at this seat and the presence of a disgruntled former Green will lessen the ability for voting Green to “feel good”.

Fl
I think you have been listening to Chairman Dan a little too much !!. (the remembering bit !) I will own up to a little hyperbole. A description of “Cranky” would have been sufficient !

However it was you having a bit of a spit (whinge!) about relevance. So i indulged myself in connecting the Greens latest instance, (& there will be so many more to come) of offensive behaviour, as illustrative of why it is indeed so relevant.
Oh and “derail”. ( that’s hyperbole !). Distract, or somewhat divert, would be fair. “Gratuitously”!? Really !? Now that REALLY is truly insulting ! No one has ever used that word in reference to me ! Ive never been accused of doing anything without reason, or meaning!. Everyone that knows me would say that i’m far too lazy to make that kind of futile effort, or expend any energy needlessly!
I also find your typification of “don’t like” to be inadequate, dismissive, & vaguely insulting. My feelings about the Greens, run deep, passionate, & very personal ! There is nothing mild, or moderate in those sentiments i assure you ! Having them trivialised in such a way is provocative, & almost intolerable !
Hope iv’e cleared all that up for you FL
Cheers WD

Ps I forgot to thank you for having so much concern on the content of my posts

WD do you have something to add about the thread topic? I’m not much interested in all this other nonsense.

Furtive Lawngnome
The Greens may not like it but the internal machinations of the Party are now part of the campaign in South Brisbane. Therefore Winediamond’s comments are on track.

The ALP were not to happy about their internal fracture on 25 April 1957 in what was then part of South Brisbane being public.
The LNP would have preferred that their fracture between Peacock and Howard, and between Dutton and Turnbull had remained a party room secret. Unfortunately for all parties politics is a public game that can not become a black out to convenience the party.
The fact that Palaszczuk can not give an assurance that Trad will not return to cabinet is ALP Constitutional and it was this same lack of Premier’s authority that led to fall of Gair Government.

Public tweets by rank and file members about other parties’ politicians hardly count as internal machinations, but yes he’s very offended that a Greens member referenced a comedy. I heard him. Multiple times now. That’s why I asked if he had anything else to add.

This Greens tweet saga reminds me of something that happened to a friend of mine when I was at university.

He was volunteering near full-time on the campaign for a high-profile state by-election. Someone (probably from the other side of student politics and working for the other main party campaign) dug up a satirical article he’d written for a student publication (in which some of the views are outrageous enough that satire can admittedly be hard to identify) and started making noise about it in the context of the by-election campaign and his role in it.

The candidate immediately threw him under the bus. Kicked him off the campaign and made a public statement along the lines of “yes, I believe he had been doing some work around the campaign office, but I’m not sure I’ve ever met him”. She won the seat.

Andrew Jackson
Spot on !. Absolutely correct. There is clearly a strategy in play to personally vilify Trad, as an evil bad disgusting (impure) person. Will it work ? Probably, because it’s plausible, & Trad has difficulty with (her) likability. Then again it could go the other way, as the (SB) Labor voters that need to be won over could be repelled ? IMV it would have been safer to run a by the book campaign (Impersonal) The Greens will doubtless deny everything…..officially !. ARE you contending Andrew that Trad is being ,or has been leaked on ?

Do i have a problem (No i’m not very offended FL i am a grown up !) with gutter tactics in politics ? A bit, sort of…..!.Mostly it’s just dreary, & predictable. In their efforts to be “hip” the Greens succeed in bringing a new level of childish, puerile ugliness to this political strategy. Hardly intelligent, innovative, or creative. Again boring.

What i have a BIG problem with is the hypocrisy . Not keen on the virtuous, superior lecturing, sanctimony, & preaching much either. i repeat BORING. It will get interesting if the Greens go to the next level, & start FULLY exposing themselves.
CHEERS WD

WD No I make no comment about ALP internal ALP leakage. My only contact in S Brisbane ALP is no longer active and I would assume is now dead.

What I am saying is general when divisions are as great as they are in ALP at moment it is only a matter of time before fractious behaviour becomes public. If I had a spy in south Brisbane ALP you can assume I would not be talking about it.
When President of Queensland DLP at first meeting I chaired I warned party that the odds were that there was a spy in room. That was nearly 20 years ago. I would assume that Greens have a spy in S Brisbane ALP and vice versa.
No political party branch or state executive should think it has not been infiltrated by its political enemies.

Well, for those of you who wanted Amy MacMahon to take a more assertive stance… she has certainly done so now!
https://www.facebook.com/AmyMacSouthBris/posts/1312713302410920
(Apologies for the FB link, but it’s what I’ve got and viewable without being logged in)

Decided to have a look at the betting pools (via Ladbrokes), to see which seats are currently looking like changing according to the punters. This is one of the ones with a party other than the incumbent ahead in betting pools (the below show just the most notable parties for the seat)…

Greens – 1.6
Labor – 2.3

The whole thing re Mean Girls tweet has been widely misunderstood:
https://junkee.com/jackie-trad-greens-mean-girls-tweet/274209

tl;dr: The Greens secretary wasn’t actually calling anyone “skank bitch” etc. The Mean Girls quote was her clumsy attempt to parody Jackie Trad’s tone calling the Greens “obsessed with themselves”, like she was trying to say that JT sounded like Regina George (from Mean Girls) calling the Greens those names. She was irresponsible not making her intent clearer (e.g. a meme image, inverted commas etc.), but she was not hurling vile abuse at Jackie Trad. The whole thing has been blown out of proportion by newspapers like the Brisbane Times quoting the tweet but removing the context of the article she was responding to.

Apparently Amy MacMahon addressed it yesterday:

https://www.facebook.com/AmyMacSouthBris/posts/1312713302410920?__tn__=K-R

According to poll bludger The Australian reported yesterday that Labor was “increasingly confident” Jackie Trad would hold out in South Brisbane, with “several Labor insiders” saying Greens support was weakening.

I’m wondering if the Greens are getting better odds in South Brisbane and McConnell because it’s obvious the Greens are a threat in these seats. So money is betted on those seats. While other Labor and LNP gains are not so obvious, so punters are shying from those seats. As they are not getting as much attention in the media, even though the internal polling may be telling a different story.

There is quite a lot of natural assumption that the Greens will pick this one up. They managed to reduce the margin to 3% last time and this time everything is going against Trad (Lib preferences, personal popularity reduced from integrity issues, gradual Green swing here as seen in local election). However, perhaps Trad is being written off a bit too early. Greens haven’t really been campaigning that hard from driving around here. Not many signs nor car wavers. She is also campaigning like her political life depends on it (which it does). Have read in the papers she has door-knocked and telephoned thousands. It was also reported that Labor is becoming more optimistic against the Greens. Still think Greens will win, however Trad is proving to be a strong fighter.

I think LNP will rue the day they decided to preference Labor last.

It has clouded their judgement to decide that their hatred of Jackie Trad is more than their hatred of the Greens. It also made a perception that they were doing a deal with them. I also think the Greens lost a bit of momentum with their “Mean Girls” drama, which backfired on them despite hoe it was interpreted. They should hold Maiwar, perhaps pick up here and McConnel is line ball.

@Montau The Greens will have had conversations with literally over 10,000 voters in this seat in the last 5 months.

Yeah the Greens don’t do that much roadside waving because mostly the Greens can convince their volunteers to actually talk to people 1 on 1.

Bennee
Ha. Yeah, I thought roadside waving never did much but show exactly how much time volunteers have on their hands. I’ve heard this seat be described as going to be one of the most watched on the night. I guess I just would have thought to see a bit more of the ‘visible’ campaigning methods. But actually going door-knocking is less noticeable for people passing by but much more effective. Having more signs doesn’t really say anything except how much enthusiasm your rusted supporters have. Still, this is the Green’s best chance and I think they’ve been waiting since 2017 to have a crack at this.

Visibility and the implicit sense of enthusiasm and community consensus is important. Barring overwhelming media saturation, something that will absolutely never be feasible for a party like the Greens, having corflutes and volunteers out and about in party colours are simple and resource-efficient ways of imparting party presence. Obviously it’s not the be-all-end-all.

The reason why you see volunteers of all political colours on the side of the road is not to garner support per se, but a thing called “name recognition”.

When you think about it the psychology makes sense: it takes at least 6 reinforcements to help remember something. Seeing “Jo Blow” signs on the side of the road each time you go to work, by the time you get into that polling booth and you see Jo’s name you get the recall.

It’s not really aimed at informed voters – it’s aimed at those that are not engaged or apathetic to the election process.

(So none of us) 😉

Informed Bystander is probably correct about Brand Recognition. However when was last time you saw any political party activity that extends beyond this base level campaigning. USDemocrats issued a 95 page platform. Both UK Tory and Labour parties issued small book sized manifestos but no party in Australia goes much beyond yelling slogans.
No one reading Australian campaign material learns anything they do not already know.

Andrew Jackson –

Regarding “no party in Australia goes much beyond yelling slogans”, all I can say is that you should come down to what you might consider the “brothel zone” – not only do some of us have thousands of words of policy platform, we even have citations. https://pirateparty.org.au/wiki/Platform

Alex
I am wrong in that two parties do have full manifestos. ALP manifesto is available on internet but even their members have not set eyes on it and it has not been reprinted since early 1970’s. DLP had a similar document in 1970’s but I suspect I have only copy in Peivate hands. John Madigan Had not sry eyes on it till one of his staff obtained it from Parliamentary Library. All parties have some policy documents but they rarely go beyond current issues or their pet topics.

Eg What is wording of Pirate Party’s methodology for funding social services?

Andrew –

In general, I think it’s safe to assume that if a party doesn’t have a stated proposal for something that already happens/exists, they don’t intend to substantially change the status quo. Certainly that’s the case for the Pirates.

—-

Anyway, between Mean Girls and John Meyer, I now think this seat is lineball where a month ago I was reasonably sure the Greens would take it.

Alex J
Using your logic Of no policy = no change
No Government would increase taxes
Labor would not have privatised anything
Newman would not have closed SDS and Government printer.
Neither ALP nor LNP will approve Adani

The non existence of policy indicates a number of things:
Satisfaction with existing state of affairs
Lethargy by party members to write a policy
Unwillingness of Party to distribute determined policy
Party recognition that no policy leaves them free to implement unpopular policy without it going to voters.

To get back to South Brisbane does no policy mean no new bridges?

Not quite sure what you mean by manifesto – other than a policy platform – yes there is an old ALP manifesto that has been changed much later than the 1970s version but essentially this has been absorbed into the comprehensive state and federal platforms which are readily available and discussed by members annually (Covid willing).

However having just read the Greens little pamphlet sent to all I am impressed. It is clearly written with both a rationale for each set of proposals but neither too long nor too slogany.
The proposals are attractive and likely to be popular.

My only issue is that they have not included clear costings. I have been told that their taxation policies will cover the costs (probably would if achievable) but they are not explicit.

One policy that has come out of the blue is free school meals – lunch and breakfast. There is probably an EXCELLENT case for this on the basis of health etc and may be a real positive in many lower socio economic areas as well as a time saver for many working parents. However it is a completely new one for me (I know common in UK).

However i suspect that the greens have just sent the standard and in future the ALP and LNP will need to do a copy cat.

Newspoll for South Brisbane

LNP: 24%
Labor: 32%
Greens: 39%
PHON: 3%
UAP: 0.5%

TPP
Greens: 54.5%
Labor: 45.5%

That would certainly be pointing to a Greens victory here, and it actually hews pretty close to that Greens-commissioned Lonergan from a while back. Only thing really now is to wait and see what the real results are!

ZH

Fairly predictable. it is a seat that has been moving Green and Trad held on because she was seen as progressive, Now she is tainted those ALP loyalists will find it easy to swing green.

The Greens must be getting a heck of a lot of LNP preferences which surprises me a little. Roughly 2/3. I suspect it will be much closer than this poll suggests.

I hope that Frecklington is pleased with these figures – she is virtually ensuring that the Greens pick up seats like this one and could well give them a decisive say in Govt.. The only possible positive for Labor is whether the Poll includes opinions of those who have already voted. If not, it would be skewed in Green favour as younger voters are more likely to vote on the day rather than by Postal or Pre-Poll.

ZH
If these figures are correct we will be able to thank LNP for an extremist Green Labor Coalition.
LNP voters who prefer a more moderate ALP government to an extremist Green-ALP government they should ignore LNP How to Vote and preference ALP ahead of Greens.

Trad’s a liability for the ALP and a lot of Labor supporters will be happy enough to see her go. I don’t see likely Greens gains being much of a problem for the LNP, unless one of their gains is Clayfield. From both parties’ perspectives, I’d be more worried that state Greens gains bode ill for the likes of Ryan, Brisbane and Griffith.

I must say, it’s a bit of a slap in the face for Jackie to roll out senior federal MPs and get them to say that a vote for the Greens is a vote for an LNP government. Preying on the lack of understanding on preferential voting, or disregarding Greens’ committal to not support LNP minority gov, does not seem like good ethical practice. You would imagine those voters with an understanding of these things would be shocked too.

‘Trad’s a liability for the ALP and a lot of Labor supporters will be happy enough to see her go.’

Speak for yourself. Just because Newscorp says she is a liability doesn’t mean Labor supporters think that. I’m over the attacks on Jackie Trad she was cleared of any wrongdoing by the CCC. That’s the point that’s lost in all the Courier Mail biased mudslinging coverage which the Greens secretly smile about because it helps their chances.

The Newspoll doesn’t look good though, however some of their polling has been questionable where they have Labor well in front in Pumicestone but with Labor incumbent only neck and neck in Mansfield. I think the Greens primary vote is higher then it should be by the polling. But will concede it will be difficult for Trad to pull this one off when the Greens are getting LNP preferences.

Final prediction: Greens gain

Vinnie Batten, TRAD doing that is also selfish because their association with someone on the way down and out will taint them at the coming federal election to be held either in 21 or 22.

Trad is a major liability to ALP because she can not pick up votes from centre.
With Greens actively waging economic war on ALP from left and a vote for LNP Being a vote for Greens she is gone. Her only hope is that sufficient Libs will defy partyHow to Vote and preference ALP ahead of Greens. I would loved to have put a couple o adjectives in front of “Greens” but this is Tally Room not Facebook.

PN: I tend to try not to speak for myself. As Andrew said this is Tally Room, not Facebook. When I wrote my comment I was thinking of the ALP/Greens crossover voters, the unions and the actual Labor parliamentarians rather than the ALP rank and file. If it makes you feel better I doubt very much that South Brisbane will have much impact on the post-election parliamentary math. Labor is still likely to form government, and has the option of working with both KAP and Greens to push their legislation through Parliament even if they don’t get their majority, which it’s looking like they probably will.

To clarify: obviously I added some of my own commentary re: the mean girls thing but on the whole, the idea around here is to mostly talk about how others’ view politics rather than just ourselves? I’m sure we mostly all agree on that.

@Furtive Lawngnome

I think your overstating ‘unions, parliamentarians’ want to see Trad out of parliament. Labor does not like to see safe Labor seats lost to the Greens. And especially don’t want to form a minority government with KAP or the Greens because it will give them a chance to grand stand and make all these demands out of proportion to their representation in the parliament. KAP is already calling for a referendum to make north Queensland a seperate state.That increases those chances with Trad defeated.

Maybe some Labor parliamentarians were happy to see the volatile Jo Ann Miller leave parliament. Maybe some in the Right were happy to see Trad stand down as deputy. But to see Trad out of parliament to hand the seat to the Greens? Keep dreaming………

I dunno. Admittedly, Ged Kearney rode a positive wave, but I’m feeling this will be like Batman/Cooper. Heavily hyped prior to the election but the Greens may just miss.

PN: Well I watch the news, at least as often as I can bear it; I saw how CFMEU very publicly slagged Labor off and withdrew campaigning support largely because of Jackie Trad, I see how awkwardly and reluctantly the Premier and the rest of her cabinet defend Trad to the media whenever her name is mentioned. That doesn’t scream ‘ringing endorsement’ to me. Seems to me that they’d rather not to talk about or deal with Trad at all.

Obviously they’d would prefer having a generic Labor member in South Brisbane, subject to their party whip, voting for their party legislation, as every party generally does. But the way the election’s shaping up they can probably afford to lose her seat without making many, if any, major policy concessions to the minor parties at all, and Trad stops being a talking point the conservatives use against them- rightly, in my opinion, or wrongly, if that’s yours. If the Greens end up romping it beyond all expectations and holding real leverage over the ALP, then this seat was always going to be lost anyway.