Redlands – QLD 2020

This seat fell under the radar last election. While there was talk of Maiwar, Mansfield, Aspley, and Mount Ommaney changing hands Redlands quietly went unnoticed. One Nation directing preferences against the LNP sitting member really hurt the LNP in the final result in this seat. Those One Nations preferences flowing to Labor in larger numbers then usual were telling in the final outcome.

This seat maybe very close. The leaked LNP internal polling against Deb Frecklington only had the LNP behind 51-49 in this seat.

This seat is very important for Labor to hold if it wants to retain government.

Peter Dowling (the former LNP member) running against his old party wouldn’t’ve helped either. I can’t imagine he’ll be trying again.

I didn’t have this one in thoughts but looking at the One Nation vote and if there is no candidate, maybe it could be an LNP gain.

My understanding is that the LNP candidate is a very experienced campaigner having managed many campaigns and knows what he is doing. I know its different when he himself is the candidate, but I expect a strong ground operation. Maybe a local can guve their feedback.

Predicting an ALP retain with a sophomore surge. I don’t think the ALP will lose any seats in SEQ to the LNP (though they could lose some to the Greens), except maybe Gaven. The votes for handling Covid well will play out most strongly in Brisbane and surrounds.

ALP retain

A close result last time, with LNP and ALP close on first prefs. As mentioned previously, the COVID handling seems to be playing well to Labor and having the incumbent here should help this time, with One Nation fading and no strong independent so far.

Prediction (August 2020): ALP Retain

September prediction: Labor retain but I expect the margin to be around 1 percent after the election.

The combined one nation and independent 2017 vote is huge. I can see why the LNP is targeting thos mpre than Mt Ommaney or Mansfield.

Final Prediction: Labor retain but I’m nervous.

Prediction: ALP Retain (with the possibility of a reduced margin)

Strong local campaign by the LNP here plus Dowling vote going back to the LNP and a drop in the One Nation should strengthen their first preference vote. Then One Nation directed preferences against LNP last time, this time its a split ticket and that should improve the preference flow.

All this together should overcome any Labor first preference swing.

LNP gain.

This seat is once again not getting much attention despite the tight odds on Sportsbet. It wasn’t mention in the ABC QLD state election podcast, and wasn’t listed in the 13 seats to watch out for on election night in the Courier Mail. This is despite the fact Mark Robinson neighboring seat of Oodgeroo was listed despite having a bigger margin. The less I hear about this seat the more I’m thinking it’s status quo with the current member enjoying the benefit of a sophomore surge. Labor retain.

The listed 13 seats did not include Gaven either, which is super marginal. reporting or not isnt a good indicator. over 10,000 doors knocked by the LNP candidate as well as the LNP candidate being 2nd on the ballot, with labor as 6th. This seat could be lost by labor due to complacency and false confidence from the current member. UAP + Shooters and fishers and one nation support to the LNP candidate in the area, unlike last time.

potential LNP gain (margin of 1 or 2%)

Strong ground game from LNP candidate, 10,000 dors knocked, shooters and farmers+ one nation + UAP support this time as well as no Dowling factor will help the LNP

potential LNP Gain

PN .. Odds on Sportsbet are basically irrelevant .. There is no evidence that anyone is actually betting for a start and if there are bets, the odds could drop with a bet as small as $5 or $10. eg. in 2015 I tried to put $10 on Bruce Saunders to win Maryborough at odds of 20/1 .. they only let me put on $5 and dropped the odds to 12/1 after my small bet.
A candidate who had a bit of spare money could put say $100 on themselves at $2.00 and then have odds of $1.50 .. It means nothing as far as the outcome goes. Let’s face it, Sportsbet have about as much idea as anyone about seat results – they don’t have access to any special polls or “form”.

QO
i’M inclined to agree & back you. However there is nothing obnoxious about Kim Richards, & she seems to have a good story to tell. Unless there is a noticeable swing to the LNP i don’t think they will quite get there
so Toss up LNP lean

PN
the word from ALP member godson (inside intel alp hq). ALP believe that they will gain from greens, & LNP will gain from ON. Brisbane will be status quo with movement in N QLD, & Sunshine coast.

FWIW I DISAGREE ENTIRELY surprise surprise !

I’m not convinced that the primary votes will flow the way that people are anticipating.

First, note that ONP’s preferences in 2017, even if you assume every single Dowling vote that went through ONP flowed to Labor over Liberal, would have only been a 60-40 split in LNP favour. Which isn’t a huge bias at all. Expecting those voters to go mostly to the LNP is a little unreasonable. More likely is that it’ll split relatively evenly, resulting in not much movement on that front.

Which leaves the Dowling supporters… who are much harder to predict. Are they angry with the LNP still? Where do they flow to? It seems unlikely that they’ll flow massively to the LNP if they were so dissatisfied last time that they happily put Labor ahead of the LNP last time in large numbers.

My prediction is that Labor will hold steady, here. Sophomore Surge will balance out the other factors, to produce less than a 0.5% swing in 2pp.

ALP hold but tight

Very tight ALP retain