Redcliffe – QLD 2020

ALP 4.9%

Incumbent MP
Yvette D’Ath, since 2014. Previously Federal Member for Petrie 2007-2013.

Geography
South-East Queensland. Redcliffe covers most of the Redcliffe peninsula in Moreton Bay local council area, specifically the suburbs of Kippa-ring, Redcliffe, Woody Point, Clontarf, Margate and Scarborough, as well as Moreton Island.

History
The seat of Redcliffe has existed since the 1960 election. It was dominated by conservative parties until 1989, and has been dominated by the ALP ever since.

The seat was first won in 1960 by Jim Houghton. He was first elected as an independent and after a brief stint as a Liberal he joined the Country Party in 1963. He held the seat until his retirement in 1979.

The seat was won at the 1979 by-election by Liberal candidate Terry White. White was appointed to the ministry in 1980. He became the leader of a group of Liberal MPs critical of Joh Bjelke-Petersen and their own party’s closeness to the Nationals. In 1983 he led a Liberal rebellion which resulted in his election as Liberal leader and the dissolution of the coalition. In the ensuing election a majority of Liberals lost their seats and the Nationals won a majority in their own right.

White stepped down as Liberal leader following the disastrous 1983 election and held Redcliffe until his retirement in 1989.

Ray Hollis won Redcliffe for the ALP in 1989. He became Speaker of the Legislative Assembly in 1998 and retired in 2005. This triggered the 2005 Redcliffe by-election. At the ensuing by-election the ALP lost the seat to Liberal candidate Terry Rogers, who won with an 8.4% swing.

Rogers only held the seat for one year, and lost at the 2006 election to the ALP’s Lillian van Litsenburg. She retained the seat at the 2009 state election.

In 2012, van Litsenburg lost to the LNP’s Scott Driscoll.  Driscoll had been president of the United Retail Federation, and his political career quickly came undone due to allegations he misled the Parliament over his business interests. He was suspended from the LNP in March, and resigned in November 2013 under the threat of expulsion.

The 2014 Redcliffe by-election was won by Labor candidate Yvette D’Ath, with a 17% swing back to Labor. D’Ath had previously held the federal seat covering Redcliffe, Petrie, from 2007 until her defeat at the 2013 federal election. D’Ath was re-elected in 2015 and 2017, and has served as Attorney-General in the state Labor government since 2015.

Candidates

Assessment
Redcliffe is a marginal Labor seat and has fallen to the LNP in recent history, but D’Ath is a senior member of the government and the seat wouldn’t be first in line to fall.

2017 result

Candidate Party Votes % Swing
Yvette D’Ath Labor 13,851 45.2 -2.0
Kerri-Anne Dooley Liberal National 11,414 37.2 -0.5
James Bovill Greens 2,446 8.0 +2.4
Ian Philp Independent 1,087 3.5 +3.5
Graham Young Independent 1,078 3.5 +3.5
Shayne Jarvis Independent 770 2.5 +0.2
Informal 1,498 4.7

2017 two-party-preferred result

Candidate Party Votes % Swing
Yvette D’Ath Labor 16,811 54.9 -2.7
Kerri-Anne Dooley Liberal National 13,835 45.1 +2.7

Booth breakdown

Booths in Redcliffe have been divided into three areas: north-east, north-west and south.

Labor won a majority of the two-party-preferred vote in all three areas, ranging from 52.3% in the north-east to 59.5% in the north-west.

Voter group GRN prim ALP 2PP Total votes % of votes
South 9.1 57.8 7,849 25.6
North-East 8.7 52.3 4,124 13.5
North-West 7.9 59.5 4,044 13.2
Pre-poll 6.0 52.1 9,594 31.3
Other votes 9.5 53.9 5,035 16.4

Two-party-preferred votes in Redcliffe at the 2017 QLD state election


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23 COMMENTS

  1. Isn’t this the 4th election (Including the 2014 by-election) Where the LNP have ran the same candidate? I’m surprised they didn’t select a new candidate to try and win the seat. Most of the time candidates that run more than twice and lose don’t win. The LNP could have done with a star candidate to win this seat. I expect Labor to hold on around the same margin as last time. I doubt there will be much movement since they have ran the same candidate 4 times.

  2. @Daniel – I had to look this up and you’re right! Unusual to have a candidate be the same for a major party 3 elections in a row without being the MP. Yvette D’ath is high profile and doubt this seat is in trouble at all despite it’s low margin.

    Prediction (August 2020): ALP Retain

  3. Redcliffe has swung between Two major parties frequently. Basically moving in step with rest of Queensland. Redcliffe is an outer suburban seat with little local industry other than retail and service industries. Employers are small meaning trade union membership will be low.
    My prediction is Redcliffe will move with rest of Queensland. Yvette D’ath is well known but neither popular nor in popular. I doubt if she has much of a personal vote however Liberals candidate is an unknown even if it is third time running. That says it all no one else wants to pay what Liberals demand their candidates pay to be candidate.
    So far Little evidence of campaigning. One Nation seem to have occasional Crflute up in breach of Moreton Bay Council guidelines which permit only after issue of writs for election.
    Redcliffe City Council area was which is similar in area to Parliament seat used to have a sense of community that is absent in most suburban settlements. Local Newspaper has gone but a glossy magazine circulating.
    Likely that there will be more candidates. Than two mentioned I know of at least one independent ( sorry do not know his name) standing and Family First were active in area.
    ALP should retain unless a major upset statewide.
    On a statewide basis Palaszczuk has handled COVID 19 crisis in accordance with wish of population and Frecklington is not gaining traction. She has been highly negative and should have been dumped by her party.

  4. Interesting information @ Andrew Jackson. What’s that old saying, 3rd time lucky? I really can’t see Labor loosing this as Yvette is a high profile, and remember she won this at a by-election, so she has some personal vote. When she retires, this could make it more of a target for LNP.

    Prediction (August 2020): ALP Retain

  5. Some evidence of campaigning on Anzac Rd this morning but much less than on previous elections.
    Normally ALP have very good Corflute management in Redcliffe but not very evident today.
    LNP had a few Corflutes up and Independent had a vehicle parked with signage. No inducstion of any policies.

  6. Theory: Labor’s ground game is massively diminished compared to previous elections, in Redcliffe and a lot of other electorates across Brisbane. I’ve been involved in elections before and talking to a lot of Labor volunteers, there was a 3-4:1 ratio of union delegates flown in to local party members.

    Do you think the block on Victorians coming into QLD has cut off a massive source of volunteers, or Labor is so confident they’re not even bothering with the ground game this time?

  7. Informed bystander
    I commented during the Longman by election that LNP had large numbers of booth workers from well out of electorate. All parties have some FIFO volunteers. I have even been one myself. It is unwise to live in a glass house and throw stones.

  8. Andrew Jackson, this is not about throwing stones it’s a genuine question given the ground game appears to be far more subdued than in the past.

    You are correct, I’ve seen Libs (mostly Young Libs) do the “road trip” thing where they all pile into each other’s cars. The example you bring up is a fair one – Especially in by-elections.

    I’m genuinely curious to understand if the Border lockdown is actually a major factor. Some areas of the Northside have less volunteers for Labor any at least 50-70% compared to last election.

  9. A young LNP member who was suspended in December last year for making racist comments about Indigenous Australians was spotted today assisting the LNP candidate Kerri Anne-Dooley.

    Channel 7 dedicated a 2:30 segment to this issue in their nightly news bulletin today.

    Considering today’s revelations, how do we think this is going to impact the LNP’s chances in this electorate?

  10. Kerry-Anne Dooley was been caught red-handed yesterday in yet another racist scandal, this time employing Jake Scott at a pre-poll booth in Redcliffe. When confronted by Seven News all she could do was hide behind her comically huge sunhat and no-comment the reporter. I didn’t think this was a likely loss for Labor anyway but there’s no chance of it now.

    Speaking more generally in terms of Seven’s coverage, I think it’s pretty clear that the network’s editorial directive has changed. They _were_ blatantly campaigning in the LNP’s favor even mere weeks ago, to the extent they were nearly indistinguishable from Sky News. I think they’ve since resigned themselves to the reality that LNP are very unlikely now to win, regardless of what the media barons have to say about it. Now, I suspect, the directive is to bury Frecklington, and destroy any prospect of her hanging onto party leadership after Oct 31.

  11. There’s really no mystery here. The parties are minimising in person contact because of the pandemic. More of the campaign is conducted by phones instead. I also don’t think that in normal times there are scores of interstate volunteers flying in; there are better ways to spend money in an election.

    It’s also not unusual for major parties to run the same candidate over successive elections. The idea that there’s some ‘star candidate’ out there waiting to be found to contest the government’s 15th most marginal seat is absurd.

  12. Furtive Lawngnome
    LNP How to Votes without Frecklington says it all. LNP sans Frecklington will be situation in three weeks time and Nanango will be heading for a by-Election.
    With KAP holding balance of power Nanango might even go KAP at by-election.
    I still stand by my prediction that LNP will shatter before next General election.
    When Palaszczuk wins chances of QLd ALP doing same less likely.

    ALP need to address Clive Palmers Death Duties campaign.

  13. @David Walsh

    It isn’t unusual for candidates to run in successive campaigns. However, for candidates who consistently lose it has its drawbacks where they get a rap as a ‘bad candidate’. Whether that rap is justified or not is another matter. I’m pretty sure there are ambitious candidates on either side that have stood in unwinnable seats for the major parties for the experience. But have refused to stand again on successive elections to avoid this perception of them.

  14. I think the people who matter are mature enough to realise that any candidate is hostage to their party’s broader fortunes. Did the 2012 wipeout occur because the LNP preselected a uniquely talented slate of candidates? Hardly.

    David Bradbury won Lindsay at the third attempt. Ricky Johnston won Canning at the fifth attempt. Ben Chifley was the Labor candidate for Macquarie at all bar one election between 1925 and 1951, losing almost as many times as he won.

  15. @David Walsh

    Yeah I was referring more to how you are perceived in your party whether your are a good candidate or not. Just standing at many elections and being defeated can have a potential drawback in that sense. I’m not referring so much in the public’s view of you as a candidate. Candidates standing at successive elections certainly helps with name recognition and having continuity rather then chopping and changing candidates at every election. In that sense parties do prefer to have that continuity of having the same candidate because it does have advantages in terms of electability.

    Labor’s Peter Lawlor won Southport at his fourth crack in 2001. There was a controversy in 2017 that Michael Riordan missed out on the Gavin preselection to Meaghan Scanlon. While Riordan may a good candidate, the fact he stood a total four times twice for Currumbin and twice for Gavin and lost on every occasion probably was a factor that went against him with decision makers.

  16. @Andrew Jackson

    Labor has addressed Clive Palmer’s silly death tax campaign many times – it’s a total bald-faced lie.

    What else can they say? Queensland desperately needs some truth in advertising laws.

  17. Joe thankyou for your response. What I have seen is condemnation of Palmer but not a clear indication that Death Duties will not be re- introduced. My feeling is that if Greens insist they will cave. In effect they need to rule it out.
    If I have missed something please let me know.

  18. @Andrew Jackson

    https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-10-16/qld-election-2020-labor-complains-says-uap-death-tax-claim-a-lie/12774238

    “Premier Annastacia Palaszczuk was asked on Friday if the party had any plans to introduce a death tax.

    She replied: “No, definitely no.””

    Not sure how they can be much clearer than that. I also note that Palmer has edited his ads from ‘Labor will introduce a death tax” to “Labor COULD introduce a death tax.” He’s being very tricky.

  19. If you can not pick the key word there is “plans“
    . She needs to say we promise not to introduce to white ant Palmers successful campaign.
    No further comment by me we are way off tally room’s charter.

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