LNP 9.8%
Incumbent MP
Ros Bates, since 2009.
Geography
South-East Queensland. Mudgeeraba covers the Gold Coast suburbs of Merrimac, Worongary, Mudgeeraba, Reedy Creek, the Robina Town Centre, and parts of Carrara. Mudgeeraba covers southern parts of the Gold Coast hinterland.
History
The seat of Mudgeeraba was first created at the 2001 election. The seat was held by the ALP from 2001 to 2009, and has been held by the Liberal National Party since 2009.
Dianne Reilly won the seat for the ALP in 2001. She was re-elected in 2004 and 2006, but lost to the LNP’s Ros Bates in 2009.
Bates has held the seat since 2009, and served as a minister from 2012 to 2015.
Candidates
- Gary Pead (Independent)
- Brandon McMahon (United Australia)
- Leith Erikson (Independent)
- Andrew Liddell (One Nation)
- Mark Pytellek (Civil Liberties & Motorists)
- Bill Sherwood (Independent)
- Maxim Otten-Kamp (Labor)
- Lindon Cox (Animal Justice)
- Ros Bates (Liberal National)
- Scott Turner (Greens)
Assessment
Mudgeeraba is a safe LNP seat.
2017 result
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing |
| Ros Bates | Liberal National | 13,695 | 46.1 | -3.9 |
| Paul Taylor | Labor | 6,977 | 23.5 | -4.5 |
| Andrew Liddell | One Nation | 5,288 | 17.8 | +17.8 |
| Rod Duncan | Greens | 2,763 | 9.3 | +1.4 |
| Bill Sherwood | Independent | 625 | 2.1 | +0.3 |
| Jill Pead | Independent | 385 | 1.3 | +1.3 |
| Informal | 1,605 | 5.1 |
2017 two-party-preferred result
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing |
| Ros Bates | Liberal National | 17,795 | 59.8 | -0.6 |
| Paul Taylor | Labor | 11,938 | 40.2 | +0.6 |
Booth breakdown
Booths in Mudgeeraba have been divided into three areas: north-east, south-east and west.
The LNP won a majority of the two-party-preferred vote in all three areas, ranging from 53.5% in the west to 58.9% in the south-east.
One Nation came third, with a primary vote ranging from 14.2% in the north-east to 21% in the west.
| Voter group | ON prim | LNP 2PP | Total votes | % of votes |
| South-East | 18.5 | 58.9 | 10,740 | 36.1 |
| North-East | 14.2 | 57.7 | 4,816 | 16.2 |
| West | 21.0 | 53.5 | 2,321 | 7.8 |
| Pre-poll | 18.6 | 62.9 | 6,844 | 23.0 |
| Other votes | 17.2 | 62.8 | 5,012 | 16.9 |
Election results in Mudgeeraba at the 2017 QLD state election
Toggle between two-party-preferred votes and One Nation primary votes.
Prediction (August 2020): LNP Retain
Prediction: LNP Retain
LNP
Fairly straightforward LNP retain