ON 4.8% vs ALP
Incumbent MP
Stephen Andrew, since 2017.
Geography
North Queensland. Mirani covers regional parts of Queensland from the southern edge of Mackay to the outskirts of Rockhampton. The seat covers parts of Isaac, Mackay and Rockhampton local government areas, and the towns of Mount Morgan, Dysart and Middlemount.
History
The seat of Mirani has existed since 1912. Apart from the period 1935-1947, the seat was held by MPs who belonged to the Country Party, National Party and Liberal National Party until 2015, when Labor won the seat.
Jim Randell held the seat for the National Party from 1980 until 1994. His resignation triggered the 1994 Mirani by-election.
Ted Malone won the 1994 by-election for the National Party. He joined the merged Liberal National Party in 2008. Malone was elected to his first full term in 1995 by a solid 59% margin, before dropping to a slim 53-54% in 1998 and 2001.
Malone increased his margin to 60.6% in 2004, but lost support in 2006.
The most recent redistribution in 2009 favoured Labor, and Mirani became a notional Labor seat. Malone held on by a slim margin of 50.6% in 2009, and then gained a swing of over 10% in 2012. While Malone had served as a shadow minister before the 2012 election, he moved to the backbench when the LNP won power in 2012, before becoming an Assistant Minister in late 2012.
Malone retired at the 2015 election, and Labor’s Jim Pearce won the seat with a 16% swing.
Pearce only held Mirani for one term, losing in 2017 to One Nation’s Stephen Andrew.
Candidates
- Stephen Andrew (One Nation)
- Nick Byram (Civil Liberties & Motorists)
- Shane Hamilton (Labor)
- Tracie Newitt (Liberal National)
- Ben Watkin (Greens)
- Jason Borg (North Queensland First)
- Tepepe Borg (United Australia)
Assessment
This seat is very marginal. One Nation may benefit from incumbency, but they may also find themselves pushed down into third place, or suffer from a swing to Labor, either of which would see Andrew lose his seat.
2017 result
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing |
| Jim Pearce | Labor | 10,592 | 36.7 | -4.3 |
| Stephen Andrew | One Nation | 9,234 | 32.0 | +32.0 |
| Kerry Latter | Liberal National | 7,753 | 26.9 | -11.4 |
| Christine Carlisle | Greens | 1,247 | 4.3 | +0.2 |
| Informal | 1,033 | 3.5 |
2017 two-party-preferred result
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing |
| Stephen Andrew | One Nation | 15,801 | 54.8 | +54.8 |
| Jim Pearce | Labor | 13,025 | 45.2 | -8.6 |
Booth breakdown
Booths in Mirani have been divided into three areas. Polling places on the outskirts of the Mackay area have been grouped, and the remainder were split into north and south.
One Nation won a majority of the two-candidate-preferred vote in the north (55.9%) and the south (54.9%), while Labor won 50.3% in Mackay.
The LNP came third, with a primary vote ranging from 22.9% in the south to 28.2% in Mackay.
| Voter group | LNP prim | ON 2CP | Total votes | % of votes |
| North | 26.9 | 55.9 | 7,641 | 26.5 |
| South | 22.9 | 54.9 | 4,502 | 15.6 |
| Mackay | 28.2 | 49.7 | 3,369 | 11.7 |
| Pre-poll | 26.4 | 53.7 | 8,562 | 29.7 |
| Other votes | 30.6 | 58.6 | 4,752 | 16.5 |
Election results in Mirani at the 2017 QLD state election
Toggle between two-candidate-preferred votes (One Nation vs Labor) and LNP primary votes.
Stephen has been a busy local MP and well liked, despite the couple of shenanigans with Parliament (the most recent with his mate taking a photo inside parliament without permission as it was deemed to be campaigning), he should get back in no problem. Impressed he has lasted with the ONP as most in the past quit the party before the following election. (Bill Flynn and Rosa Lee Long the only 2 ever re-contesting as One Nation QLD MPs at the next election, Bill lost Lockyer in 2004 but Rosa held Tablelands at 2004 and 2006 until it’s abolition in 2009.)
Prediction (August 2020): ONP Retain [I would never thought I’d write that again after Tablelands 2006.]
Labor would be missing Jim Pearce’s personal vote – he was MP for Fitzroy for 20 years before Mirani.
It wouldn’t take that much for Labor to drop to third – then the LNP would probably win on Labor and Green preferences, assuming they put One Nation last on their HTV cards.
Labor aren’t winning this back.The PHON brand seems strong enough in North QLD, and Andrew beat the odds by not defecting or significantly embarrassing himself. I think he’ll retain and LNP leakage to other minor parties will help him stave off exclusion order issues (If he doesn’t get up on primaries)
I disagree John, I don’t think the PHON brand is strong enough.
If Deb Frecklington is going to appeal to any voters this election – voters in Mirani are it!
I expect Labor to finish third here this time without Jimmy’s personal vote. The LNP candidate is running a very good campaign and as long as she finishes in the top 2, she should have a very good chance of going on to win.
I can’t see Labor or the Greens preferencing PHON over the LNP.
I see on Sportsbet the LNP has been listed as the favorite on Sportsbet at $2.00, One Nation $2.50, and Labor $3.75.
I would have thought One Nation is the favorite here not that I want them to be. I understand their vote will likely take a hit from the pandemic. But believed that would likely be for non-incumbent candidates. It’s also hard to dislodge minor parties MP’s in North/Cenrtral QLD evidence by Katter Australia Party who polarize the North Queensland vs South East Queensland debate. The LNP will need to overtake Labor’s primary vote and finish in the top two party preferred vote to defeat One Nation via Labor preferences. They also need to hope the One Nation primary vote doesn’t get too high and need to stay competitive with them on the primary vote.
Labor did get the highest primary vote last election, but Jim Pearce is well liked in that part of the region despite losing his seat. LNP preferncing One Nation makes it hard to see a pathway for Labor to winning the seat. I did hear on the Tallyroom podcast they were still having a crack at Mirani though.
PN
You have won me over. It doesn’t seem likely that the LNP will outpoll ALP, or ON. In essence the same result as 2017. I struggle with seeing the Pandemic materially affecting the vote. Maybe i’m wrong but i just don’t feel it….!
John Spot on.
PRP It’s not ON it’s the LNP, ALP brand losing strength.
ON Hold.
scotty from marketing?
Mick
Yeah in nth Qld seems they need someone new in the “marketing dept”! Not going well.
PN: The LNP preferenced ON in 2017 as well, so it’s nothing new under the sun. Looks like Labor got about 80% Green and 20% LNP preferences.
Last week’s polling had ON losing about a third of their vote in regional Qld, with small to moderate swings to Labor, LNP and Green (and a 1% 2pp swing to LNP). Even with an incumbency factor for Andrew, he’d have issues staying ahead of the LNP, especially with other micro-right parties (including two named Borg?) who will spray preferences all over the place. If he does make it into second, he’ll hold the seat. If he comes third, it could be close but I’d tip Labor – the LNP are starting from 10% behind on primaries, and ON etc preferences won’t line up as neatly behind the LNP as the other way around.
2017 Mirani preference distribution
First candidate eliminated: Carlisle (GRN) 1,247 votes
LNP: 247 19.81% ONP: 288 23.10% ALP 712 57.10%
Second candidate eliminated: Latter (LNP) 8,000 (includes the 247 from the Greens)
LNP: 6,279 78.49% ALP: 1,721 21.51%
IMHO, HTV cards are a relic of the days before Party names were printed on ballot papers. My guess is that less than 1% of voters follow a HTV.
There have been issues at McKay pre-poll booths in regards to the display of candidates apparel and what not being banned. I am aware of complaints that have been send to ECQ and also know Stephen Andrew (MP ONP-Mirani) has been at pre-polls has has been frustrated, like the other candidates, also in the selection of pre-poll places for McKay. I’m hearing from this, it’s been choas trying to help voters work out which electorate they are in and information on who to vote for (as these booths cover, McKay, southern end of Whitsunday and northern end of Mirani).
Nevertheless, word from those I’ve spoken to at the pre-polls is that it looks like Mirani is firm for ONP, Mackay may JUST hold for ALP and Whitsunday is still close.
[Ps: Dual posted on other seat profiles that have been referenced and separate discussions on those seats.]
Prediction: Too Close to Call – Lean ON Retain
Decent first preference swing away from Labor, a small swing away from One Nation and LNP picking up all the swing off the back of a good candidate. LNP ton win on preferences from One Nation.
Labor gain but close
Final Prediction: Labor absolutely no chance in this environment of regions against Labor, PHON hold in a very tight one.
Not entirely convinced PHON are home here. Postals won’t be great for them and there might be enough for LNP to make the top 2.
I tend to agree John.
With 40% still outstanding I think the LNP could overtake PHON. It is a big call certainly but certainly you cannot count it out.
On current Postal vote trends, it would be virtually impossible for the LNP to overtake One Nation.
The idea that the LNP could close a 5.3 point gap on postals strikes me as pretty far fetched.
Look only a few seats even possibly in play.
Labor has Caloundra Hervey Bay and Pumicestone in the bag.
Bundaberg Labor are leading but the LNP are creeping back after the first preferences of the first postal batch were put in the system. That said I think they will end up short by 50 to 100 votes.
Nicklin is closer and is a real possibility of flipping before the count closes.
Apart from that, maybe Cook changes depending on who really finishes in the final two candidates, but it seems unlikely.