Maiwar – QLD 2020

Pal, this isn’t a campaigning website. We’re not here to be told who to vote for, we’re here to analyse and assess the likely outcomes.

Haven’t been in Maiwar recently so I wouldn’t know, but how exactly are One Nation campaigning in this seat?

I can’t imagine they’d be too popular in an inner Brisbane Greens held seat and can imagine the young greens would be too happy to see a One Nation roadside for example.

There are many different factors that could influence how this seat goes. Add on the fact this is a highly marginal seat (particularly the race between 2nd and 3rd) in 2017.

Berkman has the advantage of being an incumbent and could see a sophomore surge, however this is an election with the pretext of a pandemic and the backdrop of future recovery, and that could play into the major’s hands as not many feel comfortable electing minors in important elections like this one.

The next two weeks will be very interesting and could shape the race here, particularly if Labor is improving in the South East corner as polls suggest.

I imagine Libs would be better off focusing on some of those regional seats. Though mind you perhaps Libs had a lower primary because of Emmerson.

However, I still think most likely result is Green victory around 3% margin, but wouldn’t be surprised if there was a potential gain here for the majors.

I think “Christian soldier”-backed Lauren Day is such a dud candidate, the LNP could have chosen someone more moderate in this seat but it appears they have seemed to have now given up on her. Talk about tayloring your message. The internecine conflict that has played out in the western suburbs of Brisbane has ruined it for them. They blew it when it could have swung back to the fold if they chose someone like Trevor Evans or Sue Boyce, even if the LNP lost the election.

GRN HOLD (and after this election they should be able to consolidate it)

Labor doesn’t seem to take this seat too seriously. Their campaigning isn’t anywhere near the 2017 level. I suspect they know they have little chance here and aren’t wasting much of their resources here.

There was also an online Candidate’s forum tonight hosted by the Courier Mail and The Quest Community Newspaper and the Labor candidate Palani Thevar didn’t attend.

@ZH
Yes, Labor resources appear not as much as in 2017…

FYI though, I understand the Labor candidate did not attend tonight’s forum because he collapsed on prepoll today.

@BJA

Poor form from the Courier Mail and the Quest Newspaper not to mention that.

I hope Palani is doing well

Usually seats where gr defeats lnp reelect the sitting gr mp

BJA
A day on polling booth is hard work. Very few candidates will be getting a decent nights sleep. They will be stressed, exhausted and ready for a decent rest.

BJA and all,

Labor is taking Maiwar seriously. Palani and his team have been working hard. Palani and the team are in full swing. Greens who didn’t deliver 2017 promises like $1 bus fare and LNP notorious for cuts will be defeated by Maiwar electorate who are the smartest. Thank you for everyone’s wishes.

Not attending a forum does not mean a candidate is not prepared. Palani is an active participant in debates. People of Maiwar will watch speaking in Parliament. Watch out for false promisers and credit hunters.

As a local I am sure ONP and UAP in Maiwar are just fronts, most likely for LNP. They have had no presence in any of our community or suburban life, yet are allowed to be plonked here. And UAP rely solely on Palmer’s cashed-up ads to sway people. This kind of ‘vote-farming’ on other’s behalf should be investigated. How can a would-be MP and politician just appear in our electorate, mere weeks before an election? We are a mature democracy and a first world country and such cheap tactics to trick people should be called out or outlawed. Even Michael Johnson who IS a local pollie from years ago only appeared on the day of nominations – and hasn’t been heard from since…! What is it with our river, Maiwar attracting all these meandering wannabes?

And don’t get me started on Greens’ ‘lure-fishing’ for votes..! All allure, no bait even.

Subtle. Real subtle.

You might as well have yet another go at it

Pal Chidambaram I think it’s fair to give the Greens the benefit of the doubt that if they had won 47 seats them may indeed have fullfilled their “promises.”

You’ve got minor parties coming and going if you are going to blame them for not winning and use that as the main excuse not to vote for them (…dooming them to never win if that stance was held by most voters).

Bennee .. Whilst you are correct, Pal has inadvertently raised a valid point .. how can minor parties EVER fulfill their promises when they are extremely unlikely to be a Govt?

Peter Knopke

I guess you have to judge if they have in good faith attempted to negotiate in the spirit of their promises within the resultant parliament, most relevant in a hung parliament.

I am a local and I’m concerned about the appearance of ONP and UAP people in our electorate. These people have had no presence in any of the social and cultural life of our suburbs and yet they appear, out thin air to represent us in Parliament… what’s going on? How can that be normal? I’m sure they have been planted here to steal votes for the LNP – engaging in a kind of ‘vote farming’ exercise. This must be investigated and outlawed as they cannot just appear from nowhere to represent us, supported (in the case of UAP) by flashy and constant media bombardment. And then there is Michael Johnson who WAS a federal member for this area and he surfaces on the day of nominations to put his name down and hasn’t been sighted since. What’s with these people. At least Palani has been widely seen waving and door knocking everywhere. What is it about our river, Maiwar attracting all these meandering wannabes!

If a minor party gets the balance of power, they can negotiate to get some of their policies up in return for their support on other measures. Popular minor party policies can also be adopted by major parties wanting to win votes that would otherwise go to the minor party proposing them.

O. Podu I suspect this has more to do with an unintended consequence of moving away from the old Fitzgerald recommendation of optional preferential voting.

Personally I think it may also have something to do with min-maxing (minimum effort for maximum outcome) to get above the threshold for finding per vote to kick in…

However, I am certain there are smarter minds than mine who can give a better analysis than I.

Funding not “finding” sorry.

Even if the Greens lose this seat and don’t win SB or Grace Grace’s seat. It will still be a good night for the Greens,

If they increase their vote from 2017 and 2019 federal they could be on a path to win a 2nd senate seat in 2022. I suspect they will hold on here but wven if they do lose in expense to Labor the Greens will be the big winner if their vote increases statewide. If not then no.

In 2009 the Greens increased their vote share while losing this seat (it was Indooroopilly before this) yet the media said it was a big loss for the Greens but they increases their vote. As long as they are eating votes from the 2 majors its a win because it will only be the matter of time before they become a major force in Australian politics.

Nobody said the Greens would ever win a senate seat in QLD and they did, and i see the Greens momentum continuing to rise from here

Obviously as a Labor man i want Labor to win here but they won’t . But I’d take the Greens anyday over the LNP, and Mr Berkmans vote should he be reelected which i expect he will be pivotal for the premier if she is in a minority situation. Final Prediction before the vote….

GRN hold

Agree ‘Informed Bystander’, we should have stayed with optional preferencing where we can ignore all the loonies who are only interested in a single issue – be it guns or climate change. These minor parties or individuals can never run the state in their current form – and they could be obscure one day but king maker the next. This is due to a quirk in our system and it is not fair. We do need to look beyond our shores at NZ or Europe for other novel approaches – or remodel it ourselves from scratch. Also because of this compulsory ‘in every box’ system, political parties have to devote more of their energies towards political tactics, rather than to ‘..ideas, policies and a vision for the state’, as they should. Meanwhile we still have to vote for these ‘loones’, even if we are completely opposed to their thinking and have shoved them to the bottom of the pile.

Daniel and all,

As I said in my earlier post, Maiwar residents are much smarter and recognised the false promises that Greens are making in 2020 based on failed promises from 2017. LNP is very unpopular because their inconsistent COVID messages. Minor parties are just vote splitters. Labor has a proven record, excellent COVID response to keep QLD safe, sound economic recovery plan and a very keen and a community minded candidate. As a former GRN man, FINAL prediction is Labor win for Maiwar. Together we will make Maiwar great again. 😉

When I look back at DLP policy from 1960’s it is amazing how much of it has become major party policy.
End to white Australia policy
Compulsory superannuation
Equal pay for women
State Aid for independent Schools
Conservation policies
Even hearing muttering in Liberal Party about a Pacific Community.
1% of GNP in foreign Aid
Support for solar and wind energy.
(I appreciate that DLP is hostile to wind today but in 1960’s they were the only party supporting renewables.)

Support for Bradfield Scheme

I have never had any doubt that the Social Justice policies of DLP were correct and that the mere standing of a candidate influenced the debate.

One only has to look how One Nation stiffened Both ALP and LNP ‘s anti refugee policies or how Greens candidates have pushed back development to see that minor parties have influence.

Daniel,

Maiwar electroate is working on making your wish come true “Even if the Greens lose this seat and don’t win SB or Grace Grace’s seat. It will still be a good night for the Greens,”.

A number of former GRN Maiwar voters recognised that there is nothing green about the Greens. Look at the amount of plastic corflutes Greens have printed around the electorate. Also, as I said earlier, Greens haven’t kept a number of their 2017 promises e.g. $1 bus fare. In 2020, they are planning to make the public transport and educatioon completely free. They have lots of “fictitious” and “non-funded” promises for the state and will not deliver on their promises going by their track record of 2017-until now.

LNP has a lot of politicla gimmicks, copied from their federal counterparts, such as $300 rego rebate etc. We need a sustainable economic recovery plan which only Labor has.

Labor has kept and keeping us all QLDers safe and will keep us all safe by already funding UQ Covid-19 vaccine research. Above all, Labor has a real social worker with an excellent QLD record in Palani Thevar.

As the third cousin of Anthony Green, my FINAL PREDICTION for Maiwar is

LABOR win.

Final prediction labor will win this seat, many people from maiwar looks like vote for palani.

LNP candidate Lauren Day has door knocked right across the electorate, working much harder than anyone else in this race, and it showed on Courier Mail debate night where she knew the local issues inside out. Three hundred people who didn’t fit into Labor’s inadequate social housing were plonked into a student high rise in Taringa; Lauren Day was the only one to recognise their plight and it has created an anti-Berkman hotspot in a previous stronghold of the Greens. The CM debate also saw Lauren announce targeted, considered, and funded environmental projects for the electorate, catching Berkman off guard. When the LNP has a better environment policy than you, it’s time for this inactive Greens member to go. Prepolling has seen few appearances by Berkman or Thavar, but Lauren Day is there from 8am to 9pm. This one will go down to the wire under compulsory preferential and no-one knows who will win – although many here in Maiwar know who deserves to.

Labor gain but only because allot of people believe so. I was unconvinced due to the fact the Greens rarely lose seats they already have besides seats that were won at by-elections Northcote i think it was, comes to mind. So does Cunningham federally. And Indoorloopilly which is this seat, Who happend to be the last Labor MP here defected to the Greens and lost. Even if the Greens lose, are you suggesting they come 3rd place? Because if so Green voters might protest and pregerence the LNP at higher numbers than normal. Or if the LNP come 3rd do you expect them to preference the ALP over the Greens? Or in the unlikely event Labor came 3rd here i just see it unforeseeable that they would preference the LNP over the Greens. ALP win but only just. But the Greens are still in the game here. Unless someone has some ground game information here that i haven’t seen or read online.

@Daniel
Its not unlikely that Labor will come 3rd – I think Maiwar is very much a 2 horse race, GRN vs LNP.

The comments on here are very easy to see through and should be taken with a grain of salt.

Daniel
Labor does have a decent chance of coming 2nd here and getting Green preferences. The difference last time was 0.3% between ALP and GRN. Most the people here endorsing for a specific party and candidate are probably doing it because they agree with them rather than have solid proof they think they can win. I agree though that QLD covid response may improve ALP vote here.

The margin between GRN and ALP is so small that Berkman cannot get a swing against him. He’ll be hoping for a swing towards him perhaps as a sophomore swing and incumbent vote. Also, there is the belief that the Greens are doing well in the city electorates this year and could be looking to have 3. However, this could actually be a better chance for ALP than South Brisbane. Whether you love or hate Trad, she will be somewhat of a factor in South Brisbane (we’ll find out whether it will be good or not). Also, LNP preference (which polling indicates is going 60-70 in favor of GRN in South Brisbane) will come into play there whereas it will not here.

There is no chance that LNP will come third. It will be a race between the LNP and either ALP and GRN. For that to happen there would have to be at least a 7% swing from LNP to one of the other 2. This seat could be a chance of LNP in saying that though. From what has been said, their candidate appears to be well known and working hard, and had a good debate. What will probably be a bigger factor though is whether having Scott Emerson on the ticket last time lost the LNP crucial votes, and that without him they can pick it back up. However, several LNP insiders have said this is not really a likely seat for them and that they should instead target seats in the regions and targeted SEQ seats like Gaven and Aspley.

My predication: Probably GRN hold due to incumbency but wouldn’t be surprised if this falls.

I think that while Palani is popular with many the ALP is not particularly confident. Ali King last time was an excellent candidate and perfect fit for such a middle class electorate. She was also a very “green” candidate. I think that in terms of personal votes Ali will be hard to better. (She is now running in Pumicstone with a good chance).

However i do agree that the general popularity of the ALP COVID response could swing a few percentage points to Labor and that could get them ahead of the Greens. However as in Cooper next door the mood is very Green so I am not especially confident, especially since the greenish voters will assume that they are still supporting Labor even if they vote Green.

Who cares who had a ‘good debate?’ Less than 1% of Maiwar voters would have watched that debate – if that.

Pure wankery.

Was written in the Guardian yesterday that the LNP has already written off this seat. Easy Greens retain with swing to Berkman.

As I said, LNP doesn’t think this will be in play and are instead targeting other seats. I see Greens main threat as being from ALP. Still, I say that Greens are likely to hold due to sophomore swing. Also agree that debate wouldn’t have had many viewers but many of those that would have seen it were swing voters and if only 1% did see it, that is enough for a different swing. Forgot to mention, Greens are top of the ballot paper, with ALP then LNP last. Same as in 2017.

Honestly, these pro Labor posts are ridiculous.

Earlier this year Labor got 15% and 16% in the overlapping Paddington and Walter-Taylor wards to the Greens 38% and 35% for god’s sake. Green share of the “anti-LNP” vote has grown massively since 2017.

Look I am not discounting a lift in the Labor vote based off the Premier’s popularity and COVID, but this does seem like a seat where that is less of a factor than Aspley or Pumicestone.

LNP insiders I’ve spoken to think the local campaign is very strong here. That said they are worried about it not overcoming the broader state wide campaign factors. They do need to lift that primary vote above 45%, maybe even up to 46 or 47. That’s a tough ask.

I’d lean Greens retain but with no confidence here. One to watch on Saturday night.

Be careful looking at 2017 results to predict 2020. COVID is the BIG difference. Back in those good ol’ days (2017), we were happy to go Green as we were comfortable and willing to give the environment a break and take risks. Now we are back towards a more ‘default’ position: Labor is green enough, it is development friendly and they seem to be spending up big as we recover from the pandemic. They are sufficiently focused on jobs and people’s health and importantly, on keeping the borders under strict scrutiny.
On the other hand, the Greens, just in one term have shown their true colours: their ‘dark and hidden’ green face is the ‘Extinction…’ mob with anarchist tendencies. They are anti-development to the point that animal welfare and climate concerns will take greater priority than people, jobs and safety. And they are into playing childish political games – like taking credit for others’ efforts and abusive name calling.
As for the LNP, they are well and truly a right wing army propped up by monies that developers and mining giants provide. They are merely a mouthpiece for the likes of Dutton, Scotty and other right wing generals and propped by the Murdoch media conglomerate. In a way they are far more dangerous and pervasive than even the darker of the Green forces.
We need to stick with the people power that Labor forces came out from: we are our best asset. People with a baggage and an agenda – people like Clive Palmer and others in Maiwar that materialise only at elections – are a clear and present danger to ordinary people’s aspirations. We need to stick together and not be fooled by their slick advertising, incentives etc. We need a long term plan to recover from this pandemic and get back to a working economy again, not a greedy one.

As others have said, I would find it highly unlikely the ALP gain achieve 20% of the primary in Maiwar – and that’s a high water mark.

I’m an LNP voter but don’t expect a gain here.

Lauren is too conservative for this electorate and the anti-crime messaging is not cutting through with voters. I found her coming across slightly paranoid in the online debate (what with low lit, vaguely relevant print outs held up to a camera like a conspiracy theorist), and Berkman the unlikely statesman.

I predict a rough 3PP of 40-40-20 with Berkman retaining on 55-45 after preferences. This seat is GRN for the long run now.

This thread is a riot lol. I wonder how many of these very real Concerned Citizens who show up only to post about one seat and whose musings are indistinguishable from a campaign flyer will stick around after the election

Prediction: GRN Retain

In a response to the question from a local about whether Labor was running dead, the Brisbane Times reported:
“Despite how close it was, Berkman now has the electoral advantage of incumbency and Labor may feel its resources could be better spent elsewhere in the state. After all, it’s the Greens’ seat to lose and a Greens victory wouldn’t be the worst outcome for the Palaszczuk government — it’s hard to imagine Berkman backing an LNP government”.

To add to that last sentence, Berkman said the other day that he and the Greens would not support the LNP.

Also, I guess with a string of regional seats to defend, Labor would want to tip resources into them and seats where they have a pretty good chance like Pumicestone. This is probably a fruit too high on the branch for ALP.

In a previous Ask a Reporter post, both Griffith University political expert Paul Williams and QUT political analyst (and former Labor minister) John Mickel tipped a Greens win in the seat.

Montau, I have a feeling the 2 University people are correct – but in theory only. Things happen on the ground… like a groundswell that can change the expected tide of events. The professors may not have seen the local Labor bloke Palani who seems to be rousing a lot of support just using his social media accounts and doorknocking – while avoiding any mainstream media contact, eg. the CM debate. CM is a openly biased outfit and they need to be called out for it. As I complained in another post, they are quite happy to report Katter’s crazy ideas about splitting up Queensland but won’t report about Rudd’s petition (by half a million Australians!!) for a Murdoch Royal Commission. How can this be; how can they be considered a serious media outlet (hence the ‘courierfail’ hashtag). But they are the only printed newspaper, so they have a monopoly and can print what they like – which is a ridiculous situation. Even some third world countries in Asia have a more varied news and magazine culture. Murdoch has killed that tradition in our first world – and needs to be taken to task.
Coming back to Maiwar, it could therefore be a closer fight then they predict.

Despite all the previous comments, an independent phone poll conducted in Maiwar in the last few days indicates a win for ALP.

As a Maiwar local, as much as I’d personally love the LNP to win I’d say a Green retain. A few things at play here though
– despite O. Podu’s insistence, the ALP have chosen a very poor candidate who as far as I can tell has no real connection to the area (this is not a problem as such given Berkman didn’t also) but makes it much harder. The ALP are doing nowhere near the ground work Ali King did.
– Also prior to the previous election over 3000 (!) new electors enrolled to vote in the SSM plebiscite. Significant number of these were UQ students who may be transient. Are these same people still on the roll?
– Atira Champagne Socialists love thinking they are just and fair but when just and fair brings drugs and crime to their suburb they are less accepting.
All in all is say likely Greens, maybe LNP, ALP no chance.

O Podu

I have signed Rudd’s petition calling for a Royal Commission into NewsPaper monopolies.
However you can not base any decision on the fact that CM acts in interests of its shareholders.
If CM biased reporting is confined to self interest then it is no different to any other newspaper in history.
It is bias in political reporting that is the threat to democracy. ABC has clear editorial policies on trendy left wing issues but has been left to stew in position of crypto-communism for 50 years with no government having courage to take on.
Increased FM Radio and digital TV licences have not led to any increase in diversity. In fact they have been captured but same companies.

What we really need is a government that will take on all monopolies, duopolies and cartels.
Teddy Roosevelt took on Standard Oil splitting it up and forcing it into competing companies. No monopoly should ever exist outside of government ownership and it is generally preferable to have competing private companies than a government monopoly.

One of the few swinging seats (i.e. not long term strongholds like Inala) that is pretty confidently predict.
Prediction: Green retain

An independent phone poll that was conducted a few days ago has predicted an

ALP win.

I have spoken to few people from Maiwar electrode. They said that lot of people very much impressed with Labor candidate Palani. Even though LNP supporter voted for him. My prediction Palani for Maiwar.

Ok this one is difficult. I think we may see a small 1 or 2 percent lift in the LNP vote which should be enough vs the Greens MP, but I think the contest for second is close and if Labor jumps ahead then the Greens preference flow is stronger than the other way around. That could deliver it to Labor.

So I am flipping a coinand saying LNP win, but I could be very wrong here as,l I’m relying on a very strong LNP local campaign and the Greens MP not really solidifying his position.

Green retain