Kurwongbah – QLD 2020

ALP 7.0%

Incumbent MP
Shane King, since 2017. Previously Member for Kallangur 2015-2017.

Geography
South-East Queensland. Kurwongbah covers southern parts of Moreton Bay LGA. It covers the suburbs of Petrie, Kurwongbah, Burpengary, Possum Rise, Joyner, Lawnton and parts of Narangba and Bray Park.

History

Kurwongbah was created in 2017, primarily as a replacement for Kallangur, a seat created at the 1992 election. It was won in 1992 by Ken Hayward. He had previously held the seat of Caboolture since 1986. He was appointed as a minister in the Goss Labor government in 1991, and served as a minister until the government lost power in 1996.

Hayward retired in 2009, and was succeeded by former union organiser Mary-Anne O’Neill, running for Labor.

In 2012, O’Neill was defeated by the LNP’s Trevor Ruthenberg. Ruthenberg held Kallangur until 2015, when he lost to Labor’s Shane King.

There was another seat which previously carried the name of Kurwongbah from 1992 until 2009. This seat was always won by Labor. Labor’s Margaret Woodgate switched to this seat when Pine Rivers was abolished in 1992, after holding the previous seat for one term since 1989. Woodgate retired in 1997, and the ensuing by-election was won by Labor candidate Linda Lavarch. She held Kurwongbah until the seat was abolished in 2009.

Labor’s Shane King was re-elected to represent the restored seat of Kurwongbah in 2017.

Candidates

Assessment
Kurwongbah is a reasonably safe Labor seat.

2017 result

Candidate Party Votes % Swing
Shane King Labor 12,255 41.4 -6.0
Allan Cook Liberal National 7,247 24.5 -14.4
Karen Haddock One Nation 6,452 21.8 +21.8
Rachel Doherty Greens 2,519 8.5 +0.6
Thor Prohaska Independent 1,134 3.8 +3.8
Informal 1,374 4.4

2017 two-party-preferred result

Candidate Party Votes % Swing
Shane King Labor 16,874 57.0 -0.1
Allan Cook Liberal National 12,733 43.0 +0.1

Booth breakdown

Booths in Kurwongbah have been divided into north and south.

Labor won a majority of the two-party-preferred vote in both areas, with 57.4% in the north and 59.6% in the south.

Voter group ON prim ALP 2PP Total votes % of votes
North 22.6 57.4 8,802 29.7
South 17.8 59.6 7,525 25.4
Pre-poll 24.0 54.9 9,011 30.4
Other votes 22.6 56.0 4,269 14.4

Election results in Kurwongbah at the 2017 QLD state election
Toggle between two-party-preferred votes and One Nation primary votes.


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15 COMMENTS

  2. Another one of those seats where Labor come first on primaries and the LNP aren’t far ahead of One Nation (like Mackay, Burdekin, Mulgrave). Alternate margin, assuming 80% Grn-ALP, 80% LNP-ON, independent 50-50: about 5% ALP vs ON.

  3. My local seat.

    The LNP are invisible in Kurwongbah. Both the Labor and LNP candidates are not great.

    Surprisingly the PHON candidate is actually the most visible. I wouldn’t be surprised if she actually comes second on primary votes. Easy Labor retain though.

  4. I really can’t see this seat changing and historically a strong Labor area up north. Thanks for the update on the campaign @PRP. Perhaps LNP resources are being put into Pumicestone nearby instead.

    Prediction (August 2020): ALP Retain

  5. One Nation had Trailer parked on Depot Rd with Corflutes from three Different state electorate candidates Kallangur, Kurwongbah, and ????.

    Whilst I think PHON is a despicable party they are running a good campaign.

  11. Thor Thanks
    Sounds very similar to structural problems in many small parties.

    Your problems are not unique.

    One clear problem I have noticed is that business men especially proprietary businessmen find it very difficult to manage an organisation where ultimate power rests with membership.

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