ALP 9.9% vs ON
Incumbent MP
Charis Mullen, since 2017.
Geography
South-western fringe of Brisbane. Jordan covers parts of the cities of Logan and Ipswich, including the suburbs of Gailes, Carole Park, Camira, Augustine Heights, Brookwater, Springfield, New Beith, Lyons and Undullah.
History
Jordan was created for the 2017 election from parts of four electorates. Bundamba, Inala and Logan were all strong Labor seats. Bundamba and Inala were created in 1992 and were held by Labor continuously until at least 2017, even staying with Labor when they were badly defeated in 2017. The LNP won Logan in 2012 but Labor has otherwise held the seat at every election since its creation in 1986. Jordan also took in parts of Lockyer, a semi-regional LNP seat which had been won by One Nation in 1998 and 2001.
Jordan was won by Labor’s Charis Mullen in 2017.
Candidates
Assessment
Jordan is a safe Labor seat.
2017 result
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing |
| Charis Mullen | Labor | 11,026 | 39.6 | -12.8 |
| Michael Pucci | One Nation | 5,255 | 18.9 | +15.8 |
| Duncan Murray | Liberal National | 4,012 | 14.4 | -17.3 |
| Phil Cutcliffe | Independent | 2,682 | 9.6 | +9.6 |
| Steve Hodgson | Independent | 2,293 | 8.2 | +8.2 |
| Steven Purcell | Greens | 2,068 | 7.4 | -0.6 |
| Peter Ervik | Consumer Rights | 489 | 1.8 | +1.8 |
| Informal | 1,858 | 6.3 |
2017 two-candidate-preferred result
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing |
| Charis Mullen | Labor | 16,669 | 59.9 | -3.6 |
| Michael Pucci | One Nation | 11,156 | 40.1 | +40.1 |
Booth breakdown
Booths in Jordan have been divided into three areas: central, north and south.
Labor won a large majority of the two-candidate-preferred vote in the north (64%) and the centre (66%), while One Nation won 51% in the south.
The LNP came third, with a primary vote ranging from 9.1% in the north to 15.1% in the south.
| Voter group | LNP prim | ALP 2CP | Total votes | % of votes |
| Central | 14.0 | 66.4 | 10,359 | 37.2 |
| South | 15.1 | 48.7 | 5,828 | 20.9 |
| North | 9.1 | 63.9 | 3,734 | 13.4 |
| Pre-poll | 17.1 | 55.9 | 3,238 | 11.6 |
| Other votes | 17.0 | 59.0 | 4,666 | 16.8 |
Election results in Jordan at the 2017 QLD state election
Toggle between two-candidate-preferred votes (Labor vs One Nation) and LNP primary votes.
Neil Symes was LNP MP for Lytton for one term after the 2012 landslide. He quit them for One Nation, ran for them in Mansfield in 2017, now in Jordan. He gets around.
@Bird glad I wasn’t the only one to notice that. There’s been a couple of candidates like that this election.
Like comment in Ipswich West, part of a band of seats that ONP does well that are ALP held in south/south-west Brisbane and Ipswich. I can understand this one more than Bundamba or Logan, just due to demographics and industry in the area. I still overall think the ONP vote peaked in 2017, but can still see them getting second here.
Prediction (August 2020): ALP Retain
PO
This is where we disagree entirely. ON vote will burgeon in the 7 weeks. It may not be sufficient here, but the most likely election outcome at this time, is that they will hold the balance of power (with others).
A lot of population growth in this district. Are the new residents likely to vote for One Nation?
I would guess that a transient population would be the least likely to vote for One Nation.
LNP obviously cannot get a candidate as nothing is up on their website. Disappointing when you consider that Greater Springfield is full of aspirational families.
Mike
Do you really think the LNP care about seats like this one ?. Are you surprised ? There are no upper House considerations in QLD, & the LNP will never win Rankin federally.
WD, this seat has nothing to do with Rankin… it is in Oxley & I think Wright.
BjA
i was actually unsure about that . However perhaps a lot will be sucked into Rankin in the next re-distribution ?
The seat comprises Wright, Blair and Oxley.
It does surprise me that they are not putting effort in as I believe they moved one of their Senators into the area which indicates some desire to do something out there.
Looking at the results, they have in last few years nose-dived at all levels across this area even with some ‘good’ LNP results.
LNP a party supporting young aspirational families? Very funny.
Prediction: ALP Retain
Labor retain
ALP retain