ALP 0.7%
Incumbent MP
Meaghan Scanlon, since 2017.
Geography
South-East Queensland. Gaven covers inland parts of the Gold Coast, including Pacific Pines, Gaven, Nerang, Highland Park and parts of Carrara.
History
The seat of Gaven was created at the 2001 election. It was created as a notionally Liberal seat, but was won in 2001 by the ALP. The seat has since alternated between Labor and the LNP.
Gaven largely replaced the seat of Nerang in 2001. Nerang had been held by the National Party from 1986 to 1989.
Nerang was held from 1989 to 2001 by Liberal MP Ray Connor, who briefly served as a minister from 1996 to 1997. When Nerang was abolished Connor unsuccessfully contested the new seat of Mudgeeraba.
Gaven was won in 2001 by Robert Poole of the ALP. Poole was re-elected in 2004.
Poole’s wife and children lived in Thailand, and he was criticised for extended periods he spent overseas. In early 2006 it was revealed that he planned to spend a number of months in Thailand. Peter Beattie demanded that Poole return and threatened the possibility of Poole’s seat being declared vacant. Poole subsequently resigned from Parliament in early 2006.
The 2006 by-election was won by the National Party’s Alex Douglas, defeating the ALP’s Phil Gray.
Less than six months later, Douglas lost to Gray at the general election. Gray held the seat for one term, and in 2009 lost to Douglas, now running for the Liberal National Party.
Douglas was re-elected as the LNP candidate in 2012.
Alex Douglas resigned from the LNP in late 2012, to sit as an independent. He joined the newly formed Palmer United Party in 2013 as the party’s Queensland state leader. He resigned from PUP in August 2014 to again sit as an independent, and lost his seat in 2015.
The LNP’s Sid Cramp defeated Douglas in 2015. Cramp held Gaven for one term, losing in 2017 to Labor’s Meaghan Scanlon.
Candidates
- Sharon Sewell (One Nation)
- Meaghan Scanlon (Labor)
- Suzette Luyken (Legalise Cannabis)
- Reyna Drake (Civil Liberties & Motorists)
- Garry Beck (United Australia)
- Kirsten Jackson (Liberal National)
- Sally Spain (Greens)
Assessment
Gaven is a very marginal seat, although the current sitting Labor MP should benefit from a personal vote not present in 2017.
2017 result
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing |
| Sid Cramp | Liberal National | 12,210 | 46.1 | +6.4 |
| Meaghan Scanlon | Labor | 11,406 | 43.1 | +14.5 |
| Sally Spain | Greens | 2,866 | 10.8 | +4.7 |
| Informal | 1,848 | 6.5 |
2017 two-party-preferred result
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing |
| Meaghan Scanlon | Labor | 13,430 | 50.7 | +3.5 |
| Sid Cramp | Liberal National | 13,052 | 49.3 | -3.5 |
Booth breakdown
Booths in Gaven have been divided into three areas: central, north and south.
Labor won a majority of the two-party-preferred vote in the centre (54.3%) and the north (53.4%), while the LNP won 52% in the south. The LNP also won 52.3% of the pre-poll vote.
The Greens came third, with a primary vote ranging from 9.8% in the south to 10.9% in the centre.
| Voter group | GRN prim | ALP 2PP | Total votes | % of votes |
| Central | 10.9 | 54.3 | 7,138 | 27.0 |
| North | 10.2 | 53.4 | 4,884 | 18.4 |
| South | 9.8 | 48.0 | 2,823 | 10.7 |
| Pre-poll | 9.7 | 47.7 | 7,203 | 27.2 |
| Other votes | 13.8 | 48.5 | 4,434 | 16.7 |
Election results in Gaven at the 2017 QLD state election
Toggle between two-party-preferred votes and Greens primary votes.
It seems odd to me that this was the seat that went Labor in 2017, before the Labrador/Southport based seats or some of the other urban Districts.
Was there some local issue here, or is the seat naturally quite Labor-leaning?
Because it was only 3 candidates last time, only the Greens were an option for a protest vote against the 2 majors.
More candidates this time should help LNP.
@Mark, while historically true, you may think those areas would be more Labor leaning but its interesting Bonney (Labrador) has only had a Labor candidate as of the last week or so.
The presence of One Nation here should peel away some of the disgruntled voters and their preferences should help the LNP get over the line this time.
I expect a below average swing to the LNP though. Labor’s Meaghan Scanlon is an impressive candidate and has clearly worked hard. I think the border closures will hurt Labor across the wider Gold Coast. This seat should fall fairly easily.
Meaghan Scanlon has definitely been visible and worked hard in this electorate. Although, being on the GC with sentiments against the currently Labor govt over the border issues will be tough. (Definitely the best looking MP in Qld. Yes, I know, someone had to say it, Mark Bailey is a lucky man!)
@BJA, that’s an interesting point about Bonney but I guess resources are spent holding this seat (although apparently Coomera and Theodore are ALP targets).
Prediction (August 2020): TOSS-UP – Lean ALP
I just have a feeling Meaghan’s hard work might just pay off here. Also having a position created for her “Assistant Minister for Tourism Industry Development” gave her some profile, although probably not the field you’d want to be associated with on the Gold Coast. With Kate Jones going, maybe a future move up the ladder if she holds here.
September prediction: Gone for all money, certain LNP gain.
That threat to kill the premier incident will certainly hurt the LNP and their cause. And anyone that defends this is a disgrace, conservatives shouldnt be resorting to violence over border closings.
No matter how good Meaghan Scanlon is, I can’t see Labor hanging on here. The pro-LNP swing on the GC will probably be insurmountable, even for a good MP.
Interesting to see it was Meaghan getting air time with the Premier earlier this week over the ‘second’ M1. Whether or not you agree with this policy, that would show some concern in ALP about holding this seat but conversely they see it can actually be held with this policy. It also fits into their strategy of trying to get Coomera, Theodore and possibly Bonney, and break that Gold Coast LNP strangehold. But as @Elise A and others mentioned in this seat post and others, it might amount to nothing as the border stance is really hurting business down here. The further partial opening is welcome news, but it seems a case of too little too late.
This seat may as well be the first in my next round of predictions…
Prediction (September 2020): TOSS-UP – LNP Lean (moved from ALP Lean)
Meaghan still has some campaigning behind her. So will see how October unfolds, but as others really point it, it seems that it’s beyond her control and the lies in the perception of AnnaPal and ALP.
Politics_Obsessed Labor putting resources into a seat doesn’t necessarily mean it’s a good idea for them (see South Brisbane). It’s not feasible for any major party campaign to ignore the Gold Coast and Meaghan is their only MP down there. I don’t think one can read much into her being front and centre of a GC related announcement other than that she isn’t a liability for the overall campaign.
I don’t think the border issues are much of an issue here on the Gold Coast at all-to the contrary I think Gold Coasters are pretty happy that they’ve been able to largely avoid COVID, and have been able to live pretty normal lives.
The Currumbin by-election (the electorate that borders NSW) was the real litmus test for views on the border closures, and the new LNP candidate was only barely able to retain it for the party, winning by around 500 votes-despite Currumbin being a natural LNP seat.
Labor retain, and Meaghan to enjoy some sophomore bounce
FTB
i’d like to go with you. However i’m sensing that the lack of cut through from Frecklington is producing a lack of impetus, or impact. Consequently a seat like this may not move anywhere at all.
Kept being said that border issues are very big on the Gold Coast. Though I don’t know if it is in favor for border closures or openings and therefore its political importance. In many respects it is logical to assume that being a border community and having its economy depend on tourism (with many other sectors ranging from services to even construction relying on it), it would support border reopening. However, party polling, betting odds and the results from the recent Currumbin by-election show otherwise, or at least this isn’t putting people off the government’s border closures. I guess we will find out how border closures will affect the results in seats like Gaven in the Gold Coast on Saturday.
Should be mentioned that the government will decide whether to open the border with NSW on Friday, the day before election day. This would normally put this important issue into the forefront of people’s minds as they go to vote, however, with such large numbers of pre-poll, perhaps not so much now.
There is a LNP campaign to win this seat however Labor appears to holding on quite well on the coast so far. To be honest, LNP may be better off trying to pick up seats in the regions, Townsville and specifically targeted SEQ seats like Aspley. This could very well be a LNP win and would not be surprised at all should they win, however my gut feeling is as of now, ALP hold. It could very well end up on the same margin and not move much at all. Should mention that last time LNP was higher on the ballot paper. This time ALP is higher. So LNP may need a slightly larger swing than 0.7% to pick this up as maybe 1-2% of donkey vote is going against them this time.
@winediamond, I made that comment during a very different time, yes that much as changed in a few weeks ha ha. I am actually sticking with LNP as my final prediction BUT I am far less certain Labor lose it now than I was. I think PHON prefs will get LNP over the line.
Prediction: Too Close to Call – Lean ALP Retain. Either way I think the margin will stay around 0.5-1%.
The odds in this seat have strengthened for Labor at $1.50 compared to $2.50 for the LNP. They were almost line ball at one stage. I think Labor should retain, but Sportsbet odds has had little movement in other seats on the Gold Coast. So Sporstbet is not giving much away if there is a trend or a swing is on.
Labor retain
If the ALP is really going all out to win Theodore and Coomera, then the margin here should blow out to at least 5%, maybe more, with incumbency factors added to the mix here.
Tough to call. I don’t see the ALP doing that well on the Gold Coast, but Scanlon is highly rated within her party and serms to be mounting a strong campaign
Narrow ALP retain