Currumbin – QLD 2020

I think Labor would have been able to win here if the 2nd wave never happened. Border closures will be a double whammy for both tourism and the border hopping needs of locals. LNP retain.

If Labor couldn’t get Currumbin at the bye-election then they probably won’t get it at the general election. Mind you governments don’t usually win bye-elections off the opposition as the public likes to do a protest vote. So in that sense it may be easier for Labor to have a crack at the seat in the general election. It happened with the Liberals losing Longman at the bye-election, but winning it back at the general election in 2019.

Des Houghton wrote in the Courier Mail in May that former LNP member of Currumbin Jann Stucky was considering running as an independent. And she will direct preferences against the LNP candidate. I would be surprised if happens.

“Hovering above the LNP campaign like a death star is former LNP Currumbin MP Jann Stuckey, who might stick in the knife by running as an independent in her old seat and directing preferences away from the LNP’s Laura Gerber.”

https://www.couriermail.com.au/news/opinion/highcalibre-lnp-candidates-could-help-deb-frecklington-in-october/news-story/28184655b2c731d540e51ed2cf321e41

@John I tend to concur with that. The border fiasco has been a nightmare! From zones to postcodes to whatever it seems to be, I’m loosing track. Regardless, Laura has been highly visible and working hard since her by-election win.

Prediction (August 2020): LNP Retain

@Political Nightwatchman – if that does come to pass then I’ll definitely re-asses my prediction. Maybe a comeback a-la Terry Mills? 😛 [said with tongue in cheek ofc!]

Question I’ve been pondering: Would the LNP have performed better or worse on the 2PP had One Nation decided not to contest the 2020 by-election?

Clive Palmer’s wife Anna Palmer is running in this seat for the United Australia Party. I’m suspicious of the selection of the seat as this is one of the few seats on the Gold Coast Labor will be targeting. Anna will have big resources behind her, and UAP will preference the LNP. Which may scuttle Labor’s campaign as being the major alternative to the LNP in this seat.

Clive Palmer has said his party ran in the last federal election to stop Bill Shorten winning the election. Palmer still has many links to the LNP and the UAP have been described by some as a “lobby group for the Liberal party in yellow shirts”.

However, it can have consequences as well for LNP to be perceived colluding with Clive Palmer. As some LNP strategists are concerned about the LNP being associated to Palmer and would prefer the LNP distance themselves from him. As Palmer is not popular with sections of the public.

There is a rumour and I reiterate, a rumour going around that Jann Stuckey is set to announce she’s running as an Independent to preference Labor.

She’s been posting on social media a lot lately and appearing alongside the Labor candidate almost everywhere. She is openly telling people she’s considering running just to help Labor win. Watch this space.

Its been reported in the Courier Mail that’s Jann Stuckey husband Richard will be standing as an independent. It’s doesn’t say who he will preference though but he does say his candidacy supports ‘voluntary assisted dying’ for people with terminal illnesses. Which he wouldn’t get far if he was to assist the LNP with prefernceing.

if the courier mail is correct then if he is near as popular as his wife can change this seat’s outcome

If any Stuckey runs in the seat it’s just going to look like sour vindictive bitterness.

The time for spoilers was at the by-election and Jann already worked hard at poisoning the well.

Switched on voters will see this any play by the Stuckeys as revenge rather than any interest in the well-being of citizens in the seat.

This seat is in play for the ALP. A sign that a seat is not safe is when the Prime Minister or former Prime Minister makes a visit during a campaign and Prime MInister Morrison was in Currumbin today. You will really know if the LNP is in trouble in this seat and John Howard makes a visit.

Labor have increased their vote by + 8 1/2% aggregated in 2 elections. Does anyone seriously think this lemon can be squeezed for another 3 1/2% + this time? that equals 12% in total. are Labor that good ?. Worse the question is begging “Are the LNP that bad !?”. Difficult, & awkward isn’t it !?

WRT Currumbin i think everyone is getting overexcited . LNP Retain

WD
I see Max vote for LIbs (and min for ALP and Greens ) as bering 2012

2015 is reverse (max for ALP and min for libs)

THErefore lets have a look at CUrrumbin using this data

All figures % of formal vote, 2012 Figures from Wikepedia and others from ECQ

LNP
2012 58.84,
2015 45.31
2017 47.69
2020 BYelection 43.76 ( Therefore LIbs could gain ground if they do as well as 2017 they will probably gain the seat.

ALP
2012 21.93
2015 30.01
2017 35.63
2020 BY ELection 38.34 ( ALP currently at top of likely vote and will likely decline)

GRN
2012 9.51
2015 11.67
2017 11.72
2020 BY Election 10.97 ( General trend upwards but something spooked electorate in 2020 BY Election ????)

Aggregate of PHON, KAP, PUP, FF, and INDEpendents
2012 9.72
2015 13.02
2017 4.96
2020 BY ELection 0.00% (Therefore assume about 5% Preferencing LNP IF ANYONE STANDS))

Therefore on this basis right down to line with any “Others” Preferences deciding outcome. Ben’s candidate details do not include PHON and Palmer candidates at moment. I can not see Palmer spending l;ess omn his wife than he did on previous candidate so I expect his vote top rise. HIs Preferences will be far more significant than Ashby- Hanson Party. I would expect that some LNP help will flow his way ibn manning booths.

How did Palmer go manning booths on Gold Coast. In previous elections? HE did quite well in Brisbane but was pushing it in Gympie. AT least he and Greens have now fallen out. I recall 2015 Election where Green workers were handing out both Green and Palmer HTV at Morayfield East SS. Quite hypocritical of both of them.

A SEat Libs need to win Government.

Andrew Jackson
Wow a very impressive analysis . Thankyou for going to such trouble. As always your comments are intriguing , & often illuminating. I do note that you have refrained from actually making your own prediction. Is there a reason (for such caution) !?

cheers WD

WD thanks only time I make a prediction is when I can first convince myself. On Maiwar I am not confident that gut feeling can be defended.
Overall I think Palaszczuk will get much the same vote in Brisbane as last time. On Gold Coast LNP will do better Nat part of LNP is in gradual decline . KAP may pick up seats in Townsville and Warrego especiallu
If in 4 hours and 50 mins time there is not an ALP candidate .
My overall prediction is Palaszczuk by skin of her finger. The LNP have just not cut into Palaszczuk and have just had a scattergun negative campaign based onFrecklington attacking the daily activity of Palaszczuk. They should have dumped Frecklington 6 months ago and found a leader who could relate to ordinary Queenslanders. Palaszczuk is not popular but is views as governmental rather than totally oppositional.
Once again thanks for kind words.

I have noticed this seat odds has tightened on Sportsbet. Its now the LNP $1.75 and Labor $2.00. That was alot different a while ago where Labor’s odds were further out.

The media has said Currumbin is one of the best chances on the Gold Coast for Labor but it’s wasn’t really reflected in the odds. That has now changed for the moment.

Still think Palmer wrapping the whole electorate with Yellow UAP bunting and saturating the papers and air ways with advertising will help the LNP. It makes it harder for both major parties to get their message across. But it will benefit the LNP more, as voters will more likely keep it status quo.

One notable thing about the by-election earlier this year was that how to vote cards weren’t able to be handed out due to COVID restrictions at the time. This resulted in a much higher Green leakage than normal-30% of Greens preferences flowed to the LNP, and that proved crucial in LNP holding the seat.

Hadn’t looked at that before. The flow of preferences at the exclusion of the Greens candidate dropped from 75.6% to 69.8%. Had the 2017 flow been maintained the LNP would have won by 234 votes instead of 567.

Its been reported in the Courier Mail that Jann Stuckey wrote to constituents advising when voting for her husband to preference Labor ahead of the LNP on their how to vote card. It could well be a factor in such a marginal seat. However, Palmers wife candidacy may steal some of Stuckey’s thunder in terms of being spoiler by drowning her message out with such a well funded campaign of resources.

“The former MP this week wrote to Currumbin’s 30,000 constituents to inform them that her husband was running in the seat, enclosing his media statement and how to vote card.

Labor candidate Kaylee Campradt – who narrowly lost the March by-election for the seat to Ms Gerber – is preferenced second on the how to vote card behind Dr Stuckey.

Ms Gerber has been placed a distant sixth on the list of eight candidates, behind No.5 pick Anna Palmer – wife of mining tycoon and frustrated former politician Clive Palmer.”

https://www.couriermail.com.au/news/queensland/state-election-2020/candidates/qld-election-2020-jackie-trad-in-dramatic-interview-walkout/live-coverage/aae30d43e06792007820d0e9b440034a

Prediction: LNP Retain (margin to be around the same as the by-election)

Stuckey factor will play here.

Labor gain.

LNP retain, I have been misled by Labor will do okay on the Gold Coast this time hype before.

Too close to call but probably LNP retain

“ LNP retain, I have been misled by Labor will do okay on the Gold Coast this time hype before.”

COVID isn’t a factor that comes with much precedent though, other than what we saw in NZ and the NT.

To close to call, but I lean the ALP. SEQ know how great a job has been done stopping COVID, and Currumbin as the frontier electorate know it more than most.

Geez !! all this “Covid wankery”. What kind of a country have we become ?. If Currunbin falls to some incontinent self pleasuring preaching lecturing idiot. I think i’ll return to RNSH, & it will probably be the closed unit , because i may be a danger to myself……!

LNP hold

I am too fairly sceptical of the proposed Labor surge on the Gold Coast, heard such talk amount to nought before.

LNP Retain