Cooper – QLD 2020

The Greens could eventually threaten Labor here but that likely won’t be this election. One to watch in 2024 especially if the Greens surge again this time. This would be the 4th or 5th Greens seat in the future

Kate Jones in particular seems to have a big personal vote and I think this seat isn’t going anywhere until she retires.

The Greens do very well here with their Senate vote but less well with House, State or Local. (To an extent, the 2017 Greens primary also shows the split between the old Ashgrove and Mt Coot-tha seats). It’s one of their seven target seats this election, but it’ll still be a long slog for them over the next few cycles.

This election, I expect to see the east go even greener thanks to their Paddington ward campaign (and 2024 similarly), but they need at least another 10% on 3PP across the centre and west to viable.

Greens will win in a bad election for Labor and/or if Kate Jones doesn’t recontest (due to moving seat or retiring). 2020 isn’t shaping up to be either of those scenarios and Greens will have a hard time overtaking a major, though I expect them to do well here on primaries.

Kate Jones has just announced her retirement, I predict an LNP win here now.

With Kate Jones’s retirement, I won’t be surprised if Jackie Trad moves to Cooper. Ignore the secret internal polls, the demographic changes, Trad’s corruption scandals and no longer having the profile of a Deputy Premier means she is toast in South Brisbane

This is now a genuine 3 cornered contest and I think the Greens will take it.

I think Labor will hold it but the margin will be whittled right back.

This margin is heavily inflated for Kate’s personal vote. Could be one to watch.

Oh boy.

Dunno what will happen to this seat. But if LNP take it, they’ll take government too. In fact I’m getting increasingly convinced they’ll take it anyway.

On second thought I don’t see the LNP winning this with any plausible swing (they might still win government). But Cooper itself is now by far the best prospect for a fourth seat for the Greens.

Yes, today was a bombshell!

Don’t think it will be a different result but how it gets there will change. The Gap will be pegged back LNP vs Labor but the rest will save Labor with Green preferences.

Labor’s primary in Cooper could drop a long way now.
By my figures, their Senate 4PP vote share here last year was only about 24% (!!!). But that’s not the whole story: they only lost the 2PP by 3.5%, compared to 9% statewide.
So that suggests Cooper is about 5% better for the ALP than the statewide 2PP – and that’s with Kate Jones as much out of the picture as possible.

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-09-10/queensland-tourism-minister-kate-jones-to-announce-retirement/12649658

For an article about it. i was talking to some people earlier this week saying, just you wait, more will resign after Coralee and now that’s 2 more. I’m not sure what to make of all this, and it seems the campaign in these seats will be more crucial and ALP’s hold on majority government has become more tenuous.

Prediction (August 2020): ALP Retain

In Maiwar I posted about 7 seats being 20% or above for green first pref. This is one of them and didn’t expect it to be a real target. Completely opened up and genuinely don’t know what will happen in this seat. Greens have a high chance and so do LNP. Depends who ALP now chooses and how they campaign. Until my end of September predictions…

I don’t know whats up with you people predicting the LNP winning majority goverment, do you not look at history? It is very rare for a Federal governments party to gain state government from the opposition. SA and TAS in 2018 and 2014 respectively were exceptions, but what did those 2 have in common? The Labor goverments had been in power for long periods of time, Labor had only been in for 5 years contary to the 16 years in the other states. I find it laughable that you think Newman’s former seat can be won by the LNP outside of landslide years. Unless you are predicting an LNP landslide. Which is not what the bookies or political scientists are saying. Even conservative commentators like Alan Jones don’t predict such ridiculous outcome. The LNP will not win the election, and i asked before why you thought so. no answer. So clearly you just “want” the LNP to win rather than predicting it, i am not saying it is impossible for the LNP to win. Just like it wasn’t impossible for Labor to win the 2015 state election. And they did. QLD does not like the LNP, unless you have facts to prove me wrong on that. They only voted them federally because they didn’t like Bill Shorten and Labor federally. Answer these 3 questions. Why would a state government be voted out amidst a global pandemic? Why would the LNP win when they are divided, associated with Palmer who is hated nationwide for his border demands and they don’t even have a state treasurer just under 2 months out from an election. And why would Queenslanders especially in the south-east corner vote for a party that has consistently denied the science behind climate change? I like it how some of you old folks deny climate change. But it isn’t fiction, it’s just you aren’t educated enough about the issue. And why would you predict Brisbane seats to fall when Labor is popular in Brisbane? They will get swings to them here or even standstill and maybe go backwards in a few seats where members are retiring, but nowehere near enough to change he seats hands. Prediction: LAB HOLD 57-43 TPP

I’m guessing a Coalition victory based on them leading the state poll, dominating the federal poll in Queensland, the sudden exodus of union support and high profile ALP members mere weeks from the election and the barrage of bad press Palaszczuk’s been copping, but I am only guessing. Zoom out a bit and consider that Labor’s electoral coalition in Queensland looks increasingly shaky, the regions’ demographics continue to favor the conservatives while the Greens eat into their inner-city electorate, and yet Labor’s electoral strategy increasingly hinges on dominating Brisbane even as their traditional heartlands and regional strongholds give way. Right now they’ve got a majority of 1. Even a small swing can bring them crashing down, and frankly I don’t see where they’re going to make up for lost seats (Clayfield? Maybe? And that’s a big maybe). Best case scenario I see for Labor this election is minority government with the Greens. Just my honest take. It’s not wishful thinking. I hate LNP and despise ON.

But still, they won last time didnt they? And for the 10th time, and other members will tell you that federal election results do not affect state elections. Just ask Peter Beattie in 2004, that was held around the same time in 2004 when John Howard swept QLD while Beattie had a reduced landslide. And in 2004 the LNP got around the same TPP as 2019 Federally (although it wasnt the LNP back then) And the Greens eating Labors ground doesn’t affect much since the Greens would never ever help the coalition into power. The LNP could lose a couple of Gold Coast seats, and Pumicestone and MAYBE a Sunshine Coast seat to Labor. They are very marginal seats. And people don’t want change. I see no mood for change. Unless your seeing something i am not. Nobody wants change during a pandemic. I find it laughable that some people think that Labor will, never win in QLD again. That is not how the 2 party system. Works. They will win. Younger voters will, vote Labor, i see no signs of my generation voting for the LNP (BTW this is my first state election i can vote in) And last time I checked the polls don’t decide elections, voters do and the TPP doesn’t determine it. Seats do. That TPP is likely from regional areas where the LNP safely win seats in regional QLD whereas they are neck and neck and narrowly behind in SEQLD battlegrounds. It is won down here. Not in the regions. Unless we bring back the Joh-mander the LNP won’t win unless they gain suburb and city voters again. And voters don’t really care about retirees taxes anymore because the elderely wouldn’t vote Labor in 1000 years anyway. Cooper will be no different than any other city seat. Even with Katies retirement

Daniel, I respectfully disagree with your point that “it is won down here”. It’s a statewide election, with important contests right across all regions.

There are three seats north of the Pine River that Labor hold on margins of less than 2% – Townsville, Mundingburra and Barron River.

If just two of those three seats – and no others – switch from ALP to LNP, we are in hung parliament territory, with the ALP dropping to 46 of 93 seats.

You can add Thuringowa and potentially Keppel and Maryborough to the list of vunerable ALP seats in the regions.

If we take those seats off ALP – they have 42 seats (not factoring in any losses in SEQ).

If a seat like Cairns goes back to the LNP (not impossible), or Rockhampton falls to ONP, then we are in messy, messy territory.

I accept your point that the LNP must win suburb and city voters, but the ALP could easily lose majority status just on the regional seats alone.

Labor seem to have Kate Jones successor lined up for Cooper. It was reported in the Courier Mail Jonty Bush victim rights advocate and 2009 Young Australian of the Year will be picked to run for Labor in Cooper. Jonty Bush was also a Labor candidate for the ward of Enoggera at this years Brisbane City Council elections.

@NQ view Townsville, Thuringowa, Mundingburra and Barron River will be extremely hard for the ALP to hold on to. They would have better luck trying to nab marginal LNP seats in SEQ like Pumicestone than trying to hold on to Mundingburra.

I don’t see ALP holding majority without gaining seats off the LNP and there aren’t all that many options especially if the Gold Coast and Sunshine Coast have border closure resentment.

Where Cooper comes in would be for the issue of who gets more seats of the 2 majors. If all the seats Labor loses are LNP gains then it’s quite plausible the Greens would cause Labor to have fewer seats than the LNP, which may influence Sandy Bolton and the Katters. However I can see some NQ seats being PHON and KAP gains instead.

I expect a very messy end to the year as results are finalised and government forms.

@Political Nightwatchman

Yes, thats who I thought would be lined up – I was expecting Mark Furner to retire though and she would run in Ferny Grove, it overlaps more with Enoggera ward.

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-09-12/labor-jonty-bush-replace-kate-jones-cooper-queensland-election/12658006

Well that settles that then, like for like replacement – spotlight’s gone, not much change, just the 3 booths at The Gap swinging LNP.

As expected: “Jonty Bush to replace outgoing Labor minister Kate Jones in Cooper at Queensland state election”

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-09-12/labor-jonty-bush-replace-kate-jones-cooper-queensland-election/12658006

Think that’s a smart choice for ALP and gives them a strong chance to retain.

I am inclined to think
At end of election ALP will be left with only Mackay and Cairns North of Rocky. Even these seats are dependent on ALP not coming down vocally against coal in Mackay and finding a solution to the ghost town economy in Cairns.

Why does The Gap vote Labor? All demographic indicators would seem to suggest a strong LNP-voting suburb.

Agreed – smart move by Labor to select Jonty Bush – she ran a good campaign in the Enoggera ward in the BCC elections and got a swing of nearly 4%. She has a profile and will give the impression of a seamless transfer from Kate Jones.

Jonty Bush would have won Ennogerra if not for OPV and the Greens running dead. However it doesn’t seem to have much overlap with Cooper. Labor went backwards in both The Gap and Paddington (the latter by a lot) which seen to be more relevant. Also even in Enogerra the ALP primary barely increased.

She seems like a good candidate but she doesn’t have all that much momentum here yet. Kate Jones retiring late in the picture at 41 years of age will still sting quite a lot.

I’m predicting a Green gain here. The electorate is trending that way, it’s close enough to Berkman’s sphere of influence, and the Greens really can win here which will get some bandwagoning going. You will get some LNP to ALP swing over Covid but I think the ALP base “progressive” vote will collapse.

In their advertising the Greens seem to have zeroed in on Maiwar, McConnel and South Brisbane. I assume the ads date back to when Kate Jones was still running but the Greens might not be giving this seat the attention it needs to be winnable for them. Any word on the ground?

I suspect their polling is showing Jonty Bush with the lead but their ground game’s absolutely in full swing now.

All three parties have a strong presence now in Cooper. Jonty is a strong candidate, but the LNP are out in force. The greens have NOW appeared, so they are making a running.

However i predict Jonty will take it.

Sportsbet obviously doesn’t have alot faith in some of these predictions of the Greens gaining Cooper. They have the Greens out at $10.00, Labor are sitting at $1.12, and the LNP $5.50.

I’m not suggesting that the odds are the make or brake in terms of results in seats. However, Sportsbet would do their research and their odds for the Greens are very competitive in South Brisbane and Mcconnell. In fact they have listed the Greens as favorites in South Brisbane. But I just can’t help and think the Greens chances of winning this seat are remote with odds as far out as that in Cooper.

Nightwatchman the odds were $12 for the Greens in Cooper yesterday so there is some money moving.

I think it’s about right to say that the Greens have ~10% chance to win, which non-gamblers might assume means “it’s impossible”, but no I think they literally do have a 10% chance to win. A Green victory would likely involve further unpredictable factors from here, like Labor tripling down on subsidising coal mining in the coming days, the sudden reveal of ministerial scandal on election eve, and/or a higher LNP primary vote in Cooper than one might think (that makes the 3PP maths easier for the Greens).

3 days later the odds on the Greens in Cooper have shortened to $5.5! Labor lengthen to $1.2

Well obviously signage does not translate into votes, but I assume they do reflect enthusiasm. If that is the case the the Greens are winning with their signage twice that of both labor and LNP. The signs are way bigger too and they often have two per house. So if visibility matters it is a green seat.

I think that Jonti will have a hard time replacing Kate in The Gap, which was Kate’s strongest area. This is largely because Kate is seen as a local. She lived in the Gap, where here mother lived until very recently and as a student she worked in the then very popular “Family Market” where she got to greet hundreds of people at the checkout. The Gap was the focus of the Keep Kate campaign which was largely non party political.

So while I think it probable that Jonty will win, i would probably rate the Green chances as closer to 20% than 10%. Based on the results at the last two elections – Local and federal the greens and labor are neck and neck and Liberal preferences could tip the greens over the line.

However i think that the general popularity of the ALP government over COVID will swing many LNP voters to the ALP so Jonti will be well ahead. Also while Kate Jones had a big following in the Gap and to a lesser extent Ashgrove, many areas of the electorate were knew to her in 2017, especially the areas with very high Green votes in 2017 eg Paddington, Rainworth and Kelvin Grove. In other words while the Kate facto will affect the vote in The Gap, it will be less of a factor in the “green”zone.

Almost all the Greens messaging has pivoted to talking about “3 winnable seats”. I doubt the Greens are doing internal polling, but it likely represents a lack of enthusiasm for this seat and it’s probably off the boil in terms of doorknocking and other campaign activity (though booths are likely fully staffed). I could see an LNP vote collapse helping Greens get up in Miller and Greenslopes but not here.

Prediction: ALP Retain

John in a 3 corner contest like Cooper, Greenslopes, and Miller it is more advantageous for the Greens chances for the LNP vote to be higher provided of course the LNP 3PP vote stays below ~44% so that whoever of the Greens or ALP finish 2nd are guaranteed to win on preferences.

In this way the retirement of Kate Jones is actually a double dipping for the Greens, loss of incumbency advantage could see both red/blue swing voters shifting to blue and red/green swing voters shifting to green. Both processes get the Greens closer to overtaking Labor.

This can be fairly obviously seen by comparing Maiwar and McConnel 2017 results. In Maiwar the Greens got 28.9% 3PP and won the seat (they could have leaked 0.42% back to Labor and still won), in McConnel they got 28.3% but were short (the needed 2.9% from Labor to overtake them). Why the difference in the Green vote required to win? Because in Maiwar 43.0% of votes were captured in the LNP pile at the crucial exclusion whereas in McConnel it was only 37.6%.

In Cooper in 2017 the LNP 3PP was 36.8%, a ~7% swing from ALP to LNP would help them (but obviously no more than that lest the LNP win the seat).

Let me just say that any idea the greens are ignoring this seat is fanciful. The campaign volunteers are here in swarms and they are saying they have a chance. Their signage is absolutely dominant, dwarfing (in size and numbers) the ALP and LNP.

They have distributed their booklet to many places.

I do not think they believe they are a certainty, they are taking it seriously. What is more surprising is that the Liberals are NOT working very hard – not as a hard as in the Council of federal elections anyway.

Bennee what I was imagining was LNP (who are really not looking good in greater Brisbane) finishing 3rd in Greenslopes or Miller and Greens winning on preferences. I think that’s less likely in Cooper, where Greens would want to push Labor into 3rd to win.

I think the policy booklet was actually mailed out to every or nearly every Cooper resident.

I said before that I think Jonty is beating Katinka on primary votes. I still suspect that’s the case, but I’m also not ruling out LNP placing third. How those preference flows break is hard to say. My guess is that if there are significant enough differences between LNP voters in, say, Cooper and McConnel, then the Cooper Liberals are probably slightly more conservative and slightly more likely to buck the HTV card. Who can say. Australian scientific polling is pretty weak compared to the United Sates and some of us, myself definitely included, often place far too much confidence in the handful of polls that exist. A Greens win here isn’t out of the question, but it’s still a long shot.

And Maverick is right, the Cooper campaign definitely isn’t sleeping on the job, in fact from what I’ve seen they’re easily the most active of the ‘second-tier’ Greens campaigns.

Furtive
They said that it was hand delivered, so no surprise i did not get one, as I am out of the way a bit.

I fully agree with your assessment. My observation (a bit narrow as only in one place) is that the Libs are not putting in much effort – like candidate alone at a small prepoll.

However the liberal vote is quite strong. One thing I HAVE noticed is that the usual anti ALP types HAVE taken the greens HTV with more enthusiasm so some now carry just the blue and green. This is very new, since I rarely have seen that happen before.

Interestingly too I have not seen the usual LNP team out and about. Seems to be a changing of the guard. (BUT it is a small booth so maybe they usual mob are at the main prepoll.

Prediction: ALP Retain (but with the possibility of a reduced margin)

Anyone who thinks Labour have a chance here are really kidding themselves. They started campaigning about a month ago, with the departure of Kate Jones being a wake-up call to actually put in some amount of effort. From what I can tell though, they’re still not putting in the hard yards The Greens volunteers have for several months now. Complacency is seriously plauging Labour in this electorate, and I look forward to seeing this be punished this coming saturday.
Prediction: GRN Gain

Retiring MP and a better LNP candidate than last time favors LNP, but the Premier and Covid favor Labor.

Labor retain with a similar margin.

I’m seeing the Greens doing extremely well here but they need to overtake one of the two majors and they may well end up overtaking neither. Overtaking LNP seems more likely than ALP but the Greens will need a very strong vote to do that. I think there will be a result similar to McConnell 2017. Expecting the 4th highest Green primary here, but not be their 4th win (if any)

Labor Retain.

I agree with John.

My observation is Greens doing VERY well and may well overtake Labor and or the LNP – even BOTH.

I am going to call it for the Greens, much to my own surprise. In the west of the electorate which was the ALP strongest zone it seems to be a bit of a wipe out, if prepolling is any indication. pretty much the same fro the LNP.

I hope I am wrong but it sure does not look like it.

A 7% swing Labor to Greens leaves this seat with 3PP numbers very similar to how McConnel turned out last time. Which is to say, Labor retain.

“Anyone who thinks Labour have a chance here are really kidding themselves. They started campaigning about a month ago, with the departure of Kate Jones being a wake-up call to actually put in some amount of effort”

They seem to be spending a bit on Facebook ads though. I get a lot of sponsored ads for Jonty Bush, and I live a good 80 km away from Cooper

I live on the border of Maiwar and Cooper and work in Cooper. The feeling on the ground is that Jonty is a good candidate, and that Katinka is a ‘radical Green’ and has annoyed some of the locals, especially around the Gap and the nicer parts of Ashgrove. The LNP candidate is Mr Invisible and watch the LNP primary vote fall tonight in Cooper.

Whilst the Greens may pull some primary votes off Labour, due to the ‘Kate Jones retirement’, Jonty has worked hard and the prediction is that Cooper will be a Labour retain.

*At time of comment 66.5% counted showing an incredible ALP 34.1, LNP 32.7, GRN 30.6, OTH 2.6

After threading the needle in Maiwar in 2017 to win from a very low primary vote the Greens have no luck in 2020, missing out in Cooper and neighbouring McConnel merely due to disadvantageous vote shifting between ALP and LNP. I had said I expected the loss of Kate Jones incumbency advantage would drive red-blue swing voters back to blue which would have seen the seat go Green. In hindsight perhaps if Kate had stayed on the LNP would have been behind the Greens and delivered them the win on preferences! (Allegedly LNP prefs were better than 60-40 for the Greens vs Labor).

Passing 30% while not getting into the top two must be some kind of record. It’s mathematically impossible to come third with more than 33.3%, so that’s a special kind of unlucky.

One Nation in Burdekin last time did something similar: 29% for third place. Does anyone know of any similar cases?

Vic Labor’s Neil Pharaoh had 31.3% of the vote in his pile when he was excluded in 3rd place in Prahran 2018.

The Greens’ incumbent Sam Hibbins having 32.0% at the same point in the count.