LNP 10.7%
Incumbent MP
Stephen Bennett, since 2012.
Geography
Central Queensland. The seat covers coastal areas surrounding the city of Bundaberg, although not including the urban centre of Bundaberg. It covers Childers, Booyal, Elliott Heads, Bargara, Rosedale, Lowmead, Bucca and Miriam Vale.
History
The seat of Burnett has existed continuously since 1960. In that time, the seat has been won by the National Party (in its various forms) at all but one election.
Doug Slack won the seat for the National Party in 1986. Slack served as a minister from 1996 to 1998, and held the seat until 2001.
In 2001, Slack was defeated by the ALP’s Trevor Strong.
In 2004, Strong was defeated by National Party candidate Rob Messenger.
Messenger won re-election in 2006 as a National and in 2009 for the Liberal National Party.
In 2010, Messenger, along with fellow MP Aidan McLindon, resigned from the Liberal National Party after a failed coup against the party’s deputy leader, Lawrence Springborg.
Messenger lost his seat in 2012 to LNP candidate Stephen Bennett. Messenger then went on to join the Palmer United Party and ran for Hinkler at the 2013 federal election. He later served as chief of staff to Tasmanian Senator Jacqui Lambie, and was expelled from PUP in November 2014.
Bennett was re-elected in 2015 and 2017.
Candidates
- Liam Johns (Greens)
- Ric Glass (Independent)
- Geoffrey Mansell (One Nation)
- Stephen Bennett (Liberal National)
- Elizabeth Case (Informed Medical Options)
- Kerri Morgan (Labor)
- Paul Hudson (Katter’s Australian)
Assessment
Burnett is a safe LNP seat.
2017 result
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing |
| Stephen Bennett | Liberal National | 12,570 | 42.4 | -4.1 |
| Ashley Lynch | One Nation | 7,907 | 26.7 | +26.7 |
| Lee Harvey | Labor | 7,491 | 25.3 | -4.4 |
| Tim Roberts | Greens | 1,646 | 5.6 | +0.7 |
| Informal | 1,205 | 3.9 |
2017 two-party-preferred result
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing |
| Stephen Bennett | Liberal National | 17,962 | 60.7 | +4.1 |
| Lee Harvey | Labor | 11,652 | 39.3 | -4.1 |
Booth breakdown
Booths in Burnett have been divided into four areas. Polling places in the areas surrounding Bundaberg have been grouped together, with the remainder split into central, north and south.
The LNP won a majority of the two-party-preferred vote in all four areas, ranging from 56.9% in the north to 62.6% in the areas around Bundaberg.
One Nation came third, with a primary vote ranging from 23.1% in the centre to 32.3% in the north.
| Voter group | ON prim | LNP 2PP | Total votes | % of votes |
| Central | 23.1 | 58.1 | 8,442 | 28.5 |
| Bundaberg Surrounds | 28.7 | 62.6 | 3,458 | 11.7 |
| South | 28.2 | 61.2 | 3,407 | 11.5 |
| North | 32.3 | 56.9 | 2,050 | 6.9 |
| Pre-poll | 27.5 | 62.4 | 8,075 | 27.3 |
| Other votes | 26.8 | 62.3 | 4,182 | 14.1 |
Election results in Burnett at the 2017 QLD state election
Toggle between two-party-preferred votes and One Nation primary votes.
*Ben the KAP are running Paul Hudson as their candidate here. I would link the local papers with the news but they’re all paywalled, with headlines ‘First candidate to run against Bennett revealed’ and ‘KAP announces Burnett candidate Paul Hudson’ (Gladstone Observer).
Burnett was close twice for ONP (1998 & 2017) with a high primary vote but being over taken by preferences by other parties. Really surprised that they haven’t chosen a candidate yet for this seat. I had this down originally as a LNP vs ONP seat. I’m equally surprised the KAP chose to run here, as it’s a bit south from their base. With no other candidates announced yet, they may get some momentum, but really, this seat is a contest for second.
Prediction (August 2020): LNP Retain
September prediction: LNP retain.
This seat really has gone quiet. LNP vs KAP for sure, with this being one of 10 seats the ALP haven’t listed as having a candidate on their website. The only other candidate I can see running for this seat so far is IMOP. I think the target for this election is for KAP to get a strong finish in the 2CP to set up for a future tilt in 2024.
Prediction (September 2020): LNP Retain [No change]
Prediction: LNP Retain
LNP retain unless Katter beats Labor into the final two and LNP vote drops to 37%. I don’t see that happening.
QO
Not so sure about your prediction.
Surely most of the One nation will go to Katter and ALP preferences will strongly go that way.
I will go on the limb here and suggest a Katter win
If KAP win Burnett we can safely say that both Major Party Leaders will be backbencher when new Parliament meets. They have both backed themselves into a position where no Government can be formed meaning that Palaszczuk will be caretaker Premier and not even having confidence of her own party.
I had shrugged off the KAP candidate here up until this point but @maverick makes a good point. I’m still fairly confident the LNP will win this seat comfortably but it could be close against the Katter’s and perhaps they could pull an upset as well.