LNP 4.9%
Incumbent MP
Michael Hart, since 2012.
Geography
Gold Coast. Burleigh covers the southern Gold Coast suburbs of Palm Beach, Burleigh Heads, Burleigh Waters, Varsity Lakes and Miami.
History
The seat of Burleigh was created for the 1992 election. It was held by the National Party until 2001, and then by Labor from 2001 to 2012.
Judy Gamin won the seat for the National Party in 1992. She had first been elected to the seat of South Coast at a 1988 by-election following the retirement of former National Party minister Russ Hinze.
South Coast was abolished in 1992 and replaced by Burleigh, and Gamin won the new seat. She was re-elected in 1995 and 1998 before losing to the ALP’s Christine Smith at the landslide 2001 election.
Christine Smith was re-elected in 2004, 2006 and 2009.
Smith was defeated by LNP candidate Michael Hart in 2012. Hart was re-elected in 2015 and 2017.
Candidates
- Georgie Batty (One Nation)
- Scott Wallace (Animal Justice)
- Michael Hart (Liberal National)
- Ingrid Weber (Legalise Cannabis)
- Rachel Mebberson (Greens)
- Carlo Filingeri (United Australia)
- Wayne (Rabbit) Bartholomew (Labor)
Assessment
Burleigh is a marginal seat, but this seat would probably only fall if Labor did particularly well.
2017 result
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing |
| Michael Hart | Liberal National | 13,717 | 49.7 | +3.9 |
| Gail Hislop | Labor | 9,435 | 34.2 | +3.2 |
| Peter Burgoyne | Greens | 4,434 | 16.1 | +5.2 |
| Informal | 1,625 | 5.6 |
2017 two-party-preferred result
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing |
| Michael Hart | Liberal National | 15,132 | 54.9 | -0.6 |
| Gail Hislop | Labor | 12,454 | 45.1 | +0.6 |
Booth breakdown
Booths in Burleigh have been divided into three areas: central, south-east and west.
The LNP won a majority of the two-party-preferred vote in the centre (52.9%) and the west (51.4%), while Labor won 51.5% in the south-east.
The Greens came third, with a primary vote ranging from 15.2% in the west to 18.3% in the south-east.
| Voter group | GRN prim | LNP 2PP | Total votes | % of votes |
| South-East | 18.3 | 48.5 | 4,855 | 17.6 |
| Central | 17.9 | 52.9 | 4,239 | 15.4 |
| West | 15.2 | 51.4 | 3,951 | 14.3 |
| Pre-poll | 13.7 | 59.6 | 9,325 | 33.8 |
| Other votes | 17.4 | 56.5 | 5,216 | 18.9 |
Election results in Burleigh at the 2017 QLD state election
Toggle between two-party-preferred votes and Greens primary votes.
The fact that the Centre-Left vote won this seat last time around on the primary votes (Labor+Greens) the LNP only held on because of the few Green preferences they got last time. No wonder Labor is running a star candidate here. Providing the Greens standstill. Any swing the LNP gets against it. Pretty much ensures Labor wins this. The LNP got like 30% Green preferences last rime which is unpresedently high but not totally surprising because of the nature of this seat. My question is why would a Green voter vote the LNP over Labor? To punish Labor for not being left-wing enough? I thought it would be against the Green philosophy to prefer a Conservative party over a Centre-left party
Voters are strange, and there’s no such thing as a 100% preference flow (which is pretty much what would have been required here). You get people voting 1 Greens 2 One Nation and vice versa, or 1 Socialist Alliance 2 LNP. Certainly the Greens-LNP flow here was fairly high, but that’s likely because the Greens were the only non-major-party option (it was above 20% in every three-candidate seat except Greenslopes, with a donkey-vote-assisted high of 35% in Oodgeroo).
*Ben need to amend the candidates section to actually include the sitting LNP MP ;P
I consider this seat safe and with the angst over tourism losses and border restrictions (as mentioned in a previous seat) I don’t see Labor picking up a big enough swing to win here.
Prediction (August 2020): LNP Retain
Weird, he was listed as a retiring MP until the other day but has disappeared from that list. Added to the candidate list for the next update.
September prediction: LNP retain, Labor too unpopular on the GC to pick up seats they don’t hold.
Would like to have a coffee with a few of the 1,415 Greens voters who handed this seat to the LNP. Just to talk over their life decisions.
You would’ve needed an impossibly high Greens preference flows for Labor to win off that primary vote, although 31% flowing to the LNP is quite high.
As the only non major laat time, that Greens vote last time probably included people who would have otherwise voted for PHON, KAP, or any 3rd party.
In the Gold Coast the Greens campaign on overdevelopment and protecting wildlife more than traditional left issues like in Brisbane. This is more likely to attract “teal Green” voters who aren’t particularly progressive.
Greens aren’t exactly in winnable seat territory here and it’s likely that booths weren’t fully staffed.
The Green > ALP preference flow has generally strengthened recently but the >98% required here would still be a bridge too far. The strongest flows I’ve seen are in the low 90s, but that is either when there is a huge selection of candidates (EM byelection) or where Labor is generally dominant (Canberra). 80% would be a decent result on the Gold Coast and net Labor a % or so.
Labor could win this seat but it will be hard won. The margin seen above really is the margin and not some quirk of the Greens that is easily fixed.
I have to say looking at the patterns of candidates, it’s interesting to see which seats are targeted and which aren’t. AJP is running in only 6 seats and this is one of them, while LCQ is also running here. If the perception of ALP on the nose in Gold Coast really takes hold, the left vote could split across ALP/GRN/AJP/LCQ. Phew! But really, it’s only a side contest as LNP should easily retain, even with a ONP presence, and one would expect preferences to flow back strongly to LNP.
Prediction (September 2020): LNP Retain [No Change]
Prediction: LNP Retain
I don’t believe in celebrity candidates, but I do believe the local MP’s moves during COVID hurt him and the Premier’s popularity will help too.
Good swing to ALP getting the margin down to less than 1% but ends up LNP retain.
QO
Agree LNP hold but closer
Bartholomew is a good candidate, but I highly doubt that will be enough. LNP retain