LNP 0.8%
Incumbent MP
Dale Last, since 2015.
Geography
North Queensland. Burdekin stretches from the southern outskirts of Townsville down the Queensland coast to Bowen. The seat then extends further south to the rural hinterland covering Moranbah and Nebo. The main towns in the seat are Ayr and Bowen. The seat covers all of Burdekin LGA and parts of Isaac, Mackay, Townsville and Whitsunday LGAs.
History
The seat of Burdekin has existed since 1950. For most of that time the seat has been held by the Country/National Party, although it was held by One Nation and then Labor for two terms from 1998 to 2004.
The seat was won by independent Arthur Coburn in 1950. Coburn held the seat until 1969, when he was succeeded by the Country Party’s Val Bird.
Bird held the seat until his retirement in 1983, when he was replaced by Mark Stoneman. Stoneman held the seat until his retirement in 1998.
At the 1998 election, the seat was won by One Nation’s Jeff Knuth. Knuth, like most One Nation MPs, soon quit the party. He ended up joining the City Country Alliance and ran for them in 2001.
In 2001 Knuth lost to the ALP’s Steve Rodgers. Rodgers held the seat for one term, before losing to Rosemary Menkens of the National Party in 2004.
Rosemary Menkens retained the seat in 2006 and 2009. The 2009 redistribution made Burdekin a notional Labor seat, but Menkens gained a sufficient swing to retain the seat, this time for the Liberal National Party.
In 2012, Rosemary Menkens increased her margin. Menkens retired in 2015, and was succeeded by LNP candidate Dale Last. Last was re-elected in 2017, despite the redistribution giving Labor a notional majority based on 2015 results.
Candidates
Assessment
Burdekin is a very marginal seat.
2017 result
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing |
| Mike Brunker | Labor | 10,524 | 36.0 | +4.6 |
| Dale Last | Liberal National | 9,274 | 31.7 | -3.0 |
| Sam Cox | One Nation | 8,587 | 29.3 | +26.0 |
| Mathew Bing | Greens | 880 | 3.0 | +0.6 |
| Informal | 997 | 3.3 |
2017 two-party-preferred result
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing |
| Dale Last | Liberal National | 14,866 | 50.8 | +2.2 |
| Mike Brunker | Labor | 14,399 | 49.2 | -2.2 |
Booth breakdown
Booths in Burdekin have been divided into four areas. Polling places have been divided along local government lines. Three areas are named after the local government area, with the Isaacs area named ‘south’.
The LNP won a majority of the two-party-preferred vote in Burdekin (63%) and Townsville (55%), while Labor won 58% in the south and 61% in Whitsunday.
One Nation came third, with a primary vote ranging from 21% in Whitsunday to 36% in Burdekin.
| Voter group | ON prim | LNP 2PP | Total votes | % of votes |
| Burdekin | 36.3 | 63.2 | 5,132 | 17.5 |
| South | 27.5 | 42.0 | 3,518 | 12.0 |
| Whitsunday | 21.4 | 38.8 | 2,685 | 9.2 |
| Townsville | 35.2 | 54.7 | 1,883 | 6.4 |
| Pre-poll | 27.8 | 48.0 | 12,497 | 42.7 |
| Other votes | 29.4 | 58.4 | 3,550 | 12.1 |
Election results in Burdekin at the 2017 QLD state election
Toggle between two-party-preferred votes and One Nation primary votes.
Fun fact: Burdekin is the most northerly seat held by the LNP.
Burdekin’s not just marginal against Labor. If One Nation had done a little bit better in Bowen and the inland mining towns (Adani-ville), they’d’ve gotten ahead of the LNP and therefore won the seat. Kinda surprising they don’t have a candidate yet.
Burdekin will be a seat that Katter will have his eye on. It is typical Katter country consisting of Sugar Cane Farms and their supporting infrastructure of mills and engineering works. The sugar towns with their mills used to be part of Red North of Queensland and with large numbers of Italians was the centre of Mussolini’s support in Australia. But that is ancient history and battle will be between Katter and Libs for number 1spot. The high number of self employed farmers means that One Nation will be unlikely to be anywhere but 4th with Greens 5th. Home Hill and Ayr will benefit from infrastructure spending which will most likely come from KAP levering expenditure out of ALP or LNP government.
I have to say I’m shocked that neither ONP or KAP have a candidate here yet. KAP I can understand resource wise wanting to target the Townsville city seats, but with ONP coming so close last time, it just doesn’t make sense (especially considering they won bordering Mirani). This is one of 5 seats NQF are in, and outside Whitsunday, this is one that has gained attention of the party. With the lack of ONP and KAP for now, I’m curious to see how well NQF polls, as they will absorb the right protest vote. With ALP on the nose in regional areas, especially Townsville, I can’t see them getting this seat back, even with the tight margin. I had this down originally as a LNP vs ONP seat.
Prediction (August 2020): LNP Retain
Agreed with Politics_Obsessed, I think it will be an LNP Retain this time.
I can’t for the life of me understand how One Nation does not have a candidate in the field yet. Labor’s Mike Brunker is popular and well known, but I think this isn’t their election to be winning these sorts of seats from the LNP. In the absence of a strong candidate from One Nation, I think the LNP will hold.
I think the One Nation vote has peaked at the last election and I see it taking a hit this time because of the pandemic. And see the final two party preferred vote between Labor vs LNP once again.
By saying that I tend to think the LNP will be favorites to retain this seat. However, Mike Brunker seems to be a good candidate who did better last election when the regions didn’t really embrace Labor. Which makes it difficult as a non-incumbent Labor candidate. He also comes from the pro-mining cloth of Labor MP’s. It’s been mention in the media the pro-mining union CFMEU likely will back Brunker because of this.
September prediction: LNP retain but Brunker again the one reason Labor will probably make a contest of it. If Labor ever nominated an anti-mining or even green type candidate here, they’d drop big time.
Sam Cox was the ex LNP member and his family go back generations in the Burdekin. He had huge name recognition and profile. Without him the One Nation vote goes significantly backward.
On top of that I think One Nation vote drops across the state off the high last election. Pauline’s covid stance has not helped an already weakening vote.
I don’t know why this seat would be an exception to predicted ALP trouble in Townsville and surrounds. LNP retain
I am inclined to think PHON vote will go down but doubt if their candidates will have any influence for or against the voting level. Their voters are not readers and depend on TV and radio for their news. The name of an individual candidate will not be known to 99% of PHON voters. Therefore I doubt if Cox name will get them ( or lose them) one vote.
Burdekin is a seat where race politics is a factor. There may only be a few miles between Ayr and Home Hill but there is a racial gulf that is as difficult to bridge as the Burdekin was.
Both sides of Burdekin know that chances of Burdekin Bridge being built today are null. Stage 1 of Bradfield scheme will probably be on the zBurdekin so I am expecting Katter to win this seat and I would expect Bradfield Stage 1 construction to be on their list of demands in the event of a hung Parliament. Both ALP and LNP should be asking Matter for his list of demands before the election and Katter should be releasing their list now and demanding that the list be addressed by major parties prior to election.
Throwing infrastructure into ring now will interest the electorate who are far more pro development than George Street is. Making Labor commit or reject Adani before election will determine outcome of a dozen sests in Central and North Queensland.
ALP may be dominated by residents of Inner city but there are only half a dozen seats within the inner city whilst there are 12 in NQ and half a dozen in CQ. Majority of seTs in South East Queensland will not be impacted by Adani and there are probably as many seats in SEQ where a new Coal fired Generator will win votes than will lose votes. Nationals need to exert their authority over inner city and standd up to green Left. A fight on Nationals turf may result in ALP self destructing into Brothel zone Labor and Working Class Labor which could leave National Liberal party in government for 20 years. I am not sure whether I would be with Nationals or Working Class Labor.
Sam Cox is running again, but this time for KAP.
I think Labor would’ve done a deal with him, to run for KAP instead of PHON so they can preference him above the LNP in the event Labor comes third. Will be one to watch now for sure.
PRP
Surely this becomes a KAP gain now ?. What a deal !!. Who was promised what ? In exchange for what?. Who knew what , & when ?. I DO so love dirty deals !!. There have been so many done recently . “Dirty DAN” has been INSPIRATIONAL !.
Andrew Jackson . What do you think now ?. How do you feel about a “serial turncoat” ( Sam Cox ) running for Your party !? ) KAP ? If you seemed a little confused or perplexed before, what does all this do.
If i said i was concerned that might sound sarcastic. However i am now curious ?
cheers WD
WD
I have not been a member of MAP for a few years. My view that preference goes PHON makes a candidate unfit for my vote. It is no different to preferincing Greens or Communist Party.
I helped DLP at last Federal Election. At last State election I drove to Pittsworth to help the KAP candidate on understanding that the HTV I would hand out would place both major parties above Hanson and Greens. Unfortunately KAP did not get second HTV registered and they were not able to hand out. I therefore told them no chance of my help turned around
and drove back to Burpengary.
Cox is no longer associated with Hansonite hatred therefore I would be happy to vote for him providing KAP place Hanson candidates below both major parties.
As I will be voting in Bancroft at the moment my vote will be
1 ALP Chris Whiting has been a moderate hard working member who I personally recommend.
2 Independent Barry Grant . He lost any chance of getting my primary vote with his personal attack on Whiting on his Facebook Page and the rudeness of his reply to my comment.
3 LNP
4 PHON
5 Greens
@Andrew Jackson @winediamond
Well we knew Robbie Katter had a few Aces up his sleeve for this election and is looking to really capitalize on the lack of support for any leader up north. Sam Cox ..Good one .. What next I wonder, what other seats could they grab with the right candidate …. Perhaps Gympie? Warrego is a good chance but haven’t seen much in the way of campaigning as yet. That fact that the ALP will always go to KAP ahead of ON is a great incentive to re-consider your stance if you were running for a minor party at this election.
Tony
Fine but KAP not viable unless they can get their head out of NQ only. I have saw no evidence of KAP activity between Toowoomba and Burpengary today.
kAP’s biggest problem is finding candidates who will front up to an election lose and stand for next election again. When I joined DLP in late 1960’s there were candidates who had stood at every election since 1957. This level of commitment is missing in all modern minor parties.
Down in McConnel, it’s Kirsten Lovejoy’s third successive crack at the seat, plus Central Ward and Brisbane federal in 2016. (I believe she also went for preselection for Brisbane last year, but lost to Andrew Bartlett.)
Greens are definitely the exception to what Andrew Jackson was saying. They like to recycle candidates as much as they like to recycle everything else. Their top 3 target seat candidates in QLD are identical to 2017, and going out to their 2nd tier seats, they are repeating candidates in Greenslopes and Moggill and the candidate for Miller was their 2019 Moreton candidate. Sally Spain and Sue Etheridge are highly frequent candidates in the Gold Coast and Sunshine Coast respectively (though not always for the same seat) and both are running again.
I think the issue with most of minor parties is that they’re mainly built around the personality of one figure and their relationships with their candidates are highly transactional; sometimes literally – both PHON and Xenophon’s SA Best charged their candidates fees to run under the banner.
The Greens are ideology driven. There are parts of the country where the Greens brand does more harm than good (eg Jenny O’Connor in N.E victoria jumped from 3.8% as a Green in Indi to 13% primary as an Independent in Benambra). The volunteer candidates want to boost the over all movement.
KAP would do best emulating the Shooters in NSW, but they are far too intrinsically linked with a specific family, and their core campaigns are unclear. There is likely room for a socially conservative economically left party that would be genuine wildcards in parliament, and PHON try to imply they’re that way (even though they largely vote with the LNP). However right now they’re far too easily pigeonholed as the party of a specific federal electorate.
Labor are still relevant in regional QLD too. Once Labor holding seats in Townsville and Mackay is a distant memory (which is hard to imagine now but feasible), KAP will really have a chance to shine here, but it may take rebranding.
John’s comments about the Greens candidates standing again and again is true. ThisI think reflects the fact that Greens candidates are ideological as were DLP candidates in old DLP. This is not always case with Major Parties, One Nation and Palmer’a lot. KAP at times are ideological but their ideology comes from economics rather than social morals. The number of Family First candidates that surfaced as Liberals indicated that their ideology was not as ingrained as Old DLP or Greens.
I would not have used the expression re-cycled as this sounds derogatory and a commitment to stand get defeated and stand up immediately to re start again is not a trait to deride.
This will not however stop me placing Greens last on great majority of occasions. Communists and NAZI’s go below the Greens. A really overt racist One Nation candidate might go below Greens bu as most of them are mere cyphers for Pauline Hanson They scrape a spot above the Greens.
Very interesting discussion about candidates and minor parties. I admit I was a little blind-sighted on Sam Cox being chosen for KAP but knew there was someone in the works. ONP still hasn’t chosen a candidate from what I can see and they may sit this out to give Sam a chance. This seat is definitely in play, with UAP now joining too.
I can see Labor’s vote dropping, and if ONP do sit out, this should assist KAP in flow back of preferences. It’s now a question of how high the KAP vote can get as to whether this is a KAP gain or an LNP retain. UAP you’d expect to go to LNP but with NQF, no idea how that will split.
Prediction (September 2020): TOSS-UP (Lean LNP)
I’d want to see how the campaign goes over October to see how the KAP go here, and choosing Sam Cox with some name recognition was a smart idea.
So Labor’s Mike Brunker has posted his How-to-Vote card showing preferences to NQF 2nd and Katter Party third, followed by the Greens.
This is obviously a tactical move in case Labor is knocked out before KAP – to ensure a KAP victory. This is most definitely one to watch.
Yeah, I’d expect to see Labor preferencing KAP quite highly in every seat where KAP stands.
Prediction: LNP Retain
A poster claims on Poll Bludger that KAP will win this seat on Labor preferences talking to someone in the know in the LNP. I have reservations though because some of his predictions are a little out there. However it should be noted on Sportsbet it has KAP and LNP are tied at $1.90 each while Labor is at $5.00. Which adds a certain credibility to his source.
Annastacia Palaszczuk was campaigning with Mike Brunker the other day. Which may indicate Labor still think their in the hunt. But one journalist noted it should not be read too much into it as Deb Frecklington was campaigning in Rockhampton. And leaders sometimes campaign in places to make voters still feel relevant and their party receive reimbursement the percentage of primary vote it receives after every election. This despite their internal polling may not show there a likely chance in winning the seat.
Bunker has received a little heat in the media for posting on Facebook to put the LNP last. This is despite Labor’s position will be to put One Nation last. It’s frankly all a beat up, as Brunker’s cards will have One Nation last on them anyway. And the LNP are actually preferencing One Nation unlike Labor.
Prediction LNP retain.
One Nation and Katter will split each other’s vote here so as long as the LNP first preference holds they shouldn’t be leapfrogged. Better preference flow than 2017 means it should be an improved LNP margin.
LNP retain.
I go for a katter win here
Maverick
Why?
Essentially because the One nation vote will go to Katter plus the anti Labor mob. I just do not see Deb F winning over the angry North if their is an alternative. This will push LNP to third and Labor preferences will push Katter over the line
“ One Nation and Katter will split each other’s vote here so as long as the LNP first preference holds they shouldn’t be leapfrogged“ won’t most ON and KAP preferences flow to whichever one of the two is higher? So if Katter are third and ON fourth, the LNP would need Katter to not jump to third at the expense of LNP/ALP?
Ok I will lay it out more clearly.
Cox got 29% last time and Katter didn’t contest it.
I can’t see Katter plus One Nation exceeding/improving on 29% between them.
Thus even if they preference each other without leakage they are still behind the LNP when its the last three.
KAP support in this electorate will not come solely from 2017 One Nation voters, and could easily siphon a good number of votes from both the LNP and Labor just in the primary vote. Still leaning towards an LNP retain, but it’s certainly not just a write off for them and nobody should be particularly shocked if they lose it come Election Day. To an extent this could apply to Whitsunday as well.
I reckon there are plenty of people of people disgruntled with the major parties that would never vote ONP but would consider KAP. If there’s a swing against Labor in North Queensland (which seems to be the consensus) I can see KAP overtaking Labor with ONP preferences to win from third place.
QO
How does that make sense ? What stops the minors getting more than 29% ?. Is there some agreement or penalty, we don’t know about !!?
Maverick thanks fr response. I hope you are right. Burdekin is in my view closer to Katter than the other Townsville seats. The large numbers of farmers and employees who know their future employment is directly dependent on farm income is greater in settlements likeAyr and Home Hill than it is in Townsville where city is insulated by having a 3-5 thousand soldiers and a university plus airforce plus what is left of Clive Palmers Nickel refinery plus private and public . In effect Townsville is Dependent on rural surrounds but they are not as aware of this as smaller settlements.
Huge mistake for Labor to preselect someone who lost them Dawson in 2010 which was NOTIONALLY ALP, Brunker lost it for the ALP, and lost this seat in 2017 which this was held by the LNP but was NOTIONALLY ALP.
WD – Because in my opinion their vote peaked on 2017, the Mundingburra poll in the courier last week seems to back that up.
Again I could wrong.
QO
Instinctively i’m pretty confident the minors will increase 7%+ nett overall (5 YEAR trend).In key areas this would be decisive. There is a fair bit of noise currently, to back that up. Again i could be wrong too. We will see soon enough
cheers WD