ALP 10.8%
Incumbent MP
Di Farmer, since 2015. Previously Member for Bulimba 2009-2012.
Geography
Eastern Brisbane. Bulimba covers Brisbane suburbs on the southern side of the Brisbane river, including Bulimba, Hawthorne, Balmoral, Morningside, Cannon Hill, Murarrie and parts of Carina and Camp Hill.
History
The seat of Bulimba has existed continuously since 1873. The seat has been held by Labor MPs continuously since the 1930s, except for one term from 2012 to 2015.
Pat Purcell won the seat at the 1992 election. He was appointed as Minister for Public Works, Housing and Racing in 2005. He resigned from the ministry in 2007. He retired at the 2009 election.
Former public servant Di Farmer was elected as the Labor Member for Bulimba at the 2009 state election.
In 2012, Farmer was narrowly defeated by LNP candidate Aaron Dillaway, by a 75-vote margin after a 7.9% swing.
Farmer struck back in 2015, winning back her seat with a 6.3% swing. She was re-elected in 2017 with a further swing of 4.7%.
Candidates
- Anthony Bishop (Liberal National)
- Rolf Kuelsen (Greens)
- Finn Armstrong-Schmakeit (Independent)
- Doug Conway (One Nation)
- Di Farmer (Labor)
Assessment
Bulimba is a safe Labor seat.
2017 result
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing |
| Di Farmer | Labor | 15,678 | 48.9 | +1.1 |
| Fiona Ward | Liberal National | 11,080 | 34.5 | -7.3 |
| Felicity Jodell | Greens | 4,211 | 13.1 | +2.7 |
| Bernadette Le Goullon | Independent | 642 | 2.0 | +2.0 |
| Angus Jell | Independent | 471 | 1.5 | +1.5 |
| Informal | 1,140 | 3.4 |
2017 two-party-preferred result
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing |
| Di Farmer | Labor | 19,499 | 60.8 | +4.7 |
| Fiona Ward | Liberal National | 12,583 | 39.2 | -4.7 |
Booth breakdown
Booths in Bulimba have been divided into three areas: north-west, south-east and south-west.
Labor won a two-party-preferred majority in all three areas, ranging from 58.3% in the north-west to 65.8% in the south-east.
The Greens came third, with a primary vote ranging from 11% in the north-west to 15.6% in the south-west.
| Voter group | GRN prim | ALP 2PP | Total votes | % of votes |
| South-East | 13.2 | 65.8 | 7,449 | 23.2 |
| South-West | 15.6 | 62.4 | 6,982 | 21.8 |
| North-West | 11.0 | 58.3 | 5,187 | 16.2 |
| Pre-poll | 11.5 | 57.1 | 5,642 | 17.6 |
| Other votes | 13.5 | 58.7 | 6,822 | 21.3 |
Election results in Bulimba at the 2017 QLD state election
Toggle between two-party-preferred votes and Greens primary votes.
interesting how differently this place votes federally. Very surprising
@wine interesting! I can’t remember which seat profile there was discussion (think Maiwar) looking at Fed vs State votes, and the good ole’ effect of having different stripes in each.
Look, Di Farmer has this seat until she retires really considering bar the 2012 tsunami, it’s been in Labor hands for a very long time.
Prediction (August 2020): ALP Retain
There’s an independent candidate in this seat, Finn Armstrong-Schmakeit.
https://finnforbulimba.com/
September prediction: Labor retain.
The LNP goal here should be to chip awsay each election do the margin is tight and its a winnable seat once Farmer retires.
If trends continue and Greens gain Griffith, this could be a 3 cornered contest when Di Farmer retires. Until then (and probably even then), nothing to see here.
Bulimba has a pretty high “soft Green” vote; perhaps the best in the state outside of the areas that the Greens already heavily target. (By “soft Green”, I mean they got 23% in the Senate last year on a 4PP basis, so there’s a decent contingent of voters there who sometimes support them.)
I agree that it will be fairly three cornered when Di Farmer retires. Not this time though – I expect she’ll easily retain it.
Prediction (September 2020): ALP Retain [no change]
My seat. Strangely enough I have seen a lot of campaigning here from both sides, but particularly the Liberals. Have seen lots of signs around for them and I see Bishop waving at cars on the school run quite a few times. Likewise, Farmer knocked on my door. Most of this campaigning is centralized around my suburb in Hawthorne/Bulimba as well as Norman Park. Have talked to lots of local businesses and folks and they seem pretty happy with the Covid response and border closure. However they were worried with the state of the economy and debt. My bet is that even with border closure being popular here (at least from my understanding), Libs will get a swing around Bulimba booths which they usually do well in federal elections. However, there is no doubt that Labor will win and on a margin over 6% (which I usually classify as being the threshold to being a safe seat).
Di who? She’s left the building at Murarrie… All she’s done is rebuild two train stations car parks that have been run down by? No Security at these stations, stolen car’s left quit often. Di Farmer should retire she’s out of whack with the community focus is on little things does not “work with the community”, especially on legislation.
I just got an ad for the independent candidate contesting the seat on YouTube. I am not fan of the swearing in it, but I feel that a young candidate with a populist message might do well here. The election ad he made has been viewed 11,000 times and had a few positive comments. It will be interesting to see how he does in the election.
Obviously a Labor retain.
I suspect a general lift in the ALP first preference vote across Brisbane so if this defies trends and swings to the LNP at all (even 1 or 2%) then it bodes well for their future chances.
Prediction: ALP Retain
Queensland Observer
Agree that if the LNP does get a slight swing then they would have done pretty well considering this is the kind of seat Labor believes their campaigning is working.
Though this may be pretty difficult for a while for anyone but ALP. Even at federal elections where LNP does best, the booths taking in this electorate would be pretty close as you have the split between good LNP booths hugging the river in Bulimba, Balmoral and Hawthorne, and the good ALP booths further in like Murarrie, Morningside and Cannon Hill. Norman Park and Seven Hills would be reasonably close.
There comes a point in gentrification where social issues may become on par with economic ones. Bulimba is an example of that. It is also reasonably to the left socially (but not big enough for the Greens like in Maiwar whose demographics, apart from having UQ and lots of young adults, are comparable – wealthy and socially progressive).
Perhaps in a while, the suburbs in the inner east become similar to that of the Western suburbs. Lots of new apartments going up and over the years a lot of people moving in here are young professionals or coffeehouse/gym owners. Another chance however is that they become like the suburbs around Ascot, Hamilton and Clayfield (though those suburbs have more old money).
It will be a while before LNP and certainly the Greens have any chance here, especially with the still quite working class enclaves in Murarrie and Cannon Hill.
My Prediciton: Easy Labor victory and will be so for a while. LNP has better chance competing for Griffith at federal.
During Griffith By election quite a few years ago I campaigned in area for Katter and was amazed by the changes that had occurred.
KAP held a campaign meeting in a Cafe at Bulimba and it felt like a foreign country.
Morningside and Cannon Hill had changed for better. The small of the rendering works adjacent to Cannon Hill Metropolitan Public Abattoir had gone but so had thousands of jobs. The Abattoir attracted ancillary services boning rooms, meat wholesalers, AMIEU offices and the smell kept out the yuppies. Having worked in meat industry I got used to the smell. Whole electorate is symptomatic of changes in socio- economic conditions in Queensland. Government involvement in economy dissapearing and service industries replacing productive industry.
Yuppies replacing working class,
Town Houses and apartments replacing workers cottages
Definitely a seat that will change over time. Do Farmer should be safe this election but in long term this electorate is moving from very safe labour to being marginal. Next redistribution will probably contract seat towards city resulting in Bulimba shifting to a marginal seat.
Difference between State and Federal results may still be influence of Rudd. I never could explain why voters liked Rudd but they did.
I always found that Rudd was committed to only one thing that being his own self interests.
His maiden speech mentioned the meat working jobs at Cannon Hill and Murrarie but his policies whilst Goss’ Chief Of Staff and as an MP were completely neo-liberal and hostile to working class.
ALP keep