LNP 11.4%
Incumbent MP
Brent Mickelberg, since 2017.
Geography
Sunshine Coast. Buderim covers the central Sunshine Coast suburbs of Buderim, Mountain Creek, Sippy Downs, Kuluin, Rosemount and Diddillibah.
History
The seat of Buderim was created at the 2009 state election, taking in parts of Kawana and Maroochydore.
The seat of Kawana had been created at the 2001 election, and was held from 2001 to 2006 by Chris Cummins of the ALP, who defeating the sitting Liberal MP for Mooloolah in 2001.
Cummins was defeated in 2006 by Liberal candidate Steve Dickson.
In 2009, Dickson moved to the new seat of Buderim, and was re-elected in 2012 and 2015.
Dickson resigned from the Liberal National Party in January 2017 due to a disagreement over medicinal cannabis and joined One Nation as their sole state MP.
Dickson lost Buderim to LNP candidate Brent Mickelberg at the 2017 election.
Candidates
- Michael Andrews (Independent)
- Deborah Moseley (Greens)
- Alison Barry-Jones (Independent)
- Joyce Hosking (One Nation)
- Ken Mackenzie (Labor)
- Steve Dickson (Independent)
- Daniel Philp (United Australia)
- Brent Mickelberg (Liberal National)
- Alina Lee (Informed Medical Options)
Assessment
Buderim is a safe LNP seat, particularly in the absence of the former sitting member.
2017 result
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing |
| Brent Mickelberg | Liberal National | 10,911 | 36.9 | -15.3 |
| Steve Dickson | One Nation | 8,452 | 28.6 | +28.6 |
| Ken Mackenzie | Labor | 6,638 | 22.4 | -1.2 |
| Tracy Burton | Greens | 3,587 | 12.1 | +1.2 |
| Informal | 1,091 | 3.6 |
2017 two-party-preferred result
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing |
| Brent Mickelberg | Liberal National | 18,169 | 61.4 | -0.4 |
| Ken Mackenzie | Labor | 11,419 | 38.6 | +0.4 |
Booth breakdown
Booths in Buderim have been divided into three areas: east, north and west.
The LNP won a majority of the two-party-preferred vote in all three areas, ranging from 57.3% in the east to 62.1% in the north.
One Nation came second on primary votes but dropped to third and missed out on the final preference distribution. The One Nation vote varied from 27.6% in the north to 29.3% in the east.
| Voter group | ON prim | LNP 2PP | Total votes | % of votes |
| West | 28.3 | 61.1 | 8,237 | 27.8 |
| East | 29.3 | 57.3 | 4,387 | 14.8 |
| North | 27.6 | 62.1 | 2,973 | 10.0 |
| Pre-poll | 29.7 | 64.5 | 9,399 | 31.8 |
| Other votes | 26.5 | 59.2 | 4,592 | 15.5 |
Election results in Buderim at the 2017 QLD state election
Toggle between two-party-preferred votes and One Nation primary votes.
*Ben the margin needs to be fixed to a LNP Margin, not an ALP margin ;P
Well with no Steve Dickson here, expecting some normalcy to return to this seat and can see the LNP increasing on first pref at the expense of ON.
Prediction (August 2020): LNP Retain
Steve Dickson is running here as an Independent.
Given he didn’t even finish in the top two after preferences last time, I suspect he will finish third again. He might preference Labor above the LNP out of spite, but I doubt it will make much of a difference. LNP hold.
@PRP you’re right! Don’t know how I missed this one.
External Link: “https://www.couriermail.com.au/news/queensland/queensland-government/steve-dickson-former-one-nation-qld-leader-will-run-for-buderim-as-independent/news-story/59920d2dd2fbb7dc3b5b1ef2452a40d3” From none other than the Curious Snail.
He has no incumbency this time, and noticed he did also run for Senate as no.2 spot on One Nation for 2019 Federal Election.
@PRP
I wouldn’t think Steve Dickson would have reason to act out of spite, I don’t recall there being an ‘axe to grind’ so to speak, when he left the LNP.
September Prediction: Easy LNP retain, can’t wait to see Dickson lose yet again. It’s amusing to see liars lose.
“As I will no longer be of pubic [sic.] interest…”
— Steve Dickson (2019)
Buderim is one of the 4 seats with the most candidates, standing in with 7 (ALP,LNP,GRN,UAP,ON,IND,IMOP). That’s a lot on the right to split, but realistically it should all come back to the LNP, so it’s more a case of who finishes second compared to the LNP. I really don’t see Steve Dickson haven’t that much of an impact, even more so now he’s left ON.
Prediction (September 2020): LNP Retain [No Change]
Palmer Party is directing preferences to Dickson here first and then to Independent Alison Barry-Jones after that. I wonder if this will hurt the LNP at all?
It’ll be interesting to see if Dickson preferences One Nation or the LNP higher.
I’m voting Labour for the first time in my life. Anyone seeking money from overseas to influence our elections should be banned from running at all, and the fact it was from the NRA makes me steaming mad. (Dickson). Mickelberg’s been a non-entity.
I’ve been impressed with how our Premier has coped with Covid and many elderly Sunshine Coast residents are alive because of her. The PM has just been a troll. I know my vote won’t change anything here, but I’ll feel better.
Prediction: LNP Retain
LNP retain with a swing to them as t One Nation vote from last time collapses and mainly goes to the LNP here. A seat where potential ministers should be preselected, but one of the many average MPs that get up on local factors.
Safe LNP