Broadwater – QLD 2020

LNP 18.0%

Incumbent MP
David Crisafulli, since 2017. Previously Member for Mundingburra 2012-2015.

Geography
Northern parts of the Gold Coast. The seat covers the suburbs of Hope Island, Biggera Waters, Runaway Bay, Coombabah and Paradise Point as well as South Stradbroke Island.

History
The electorate of Broadwater was first created for the 1992 election. The seat was won by the National Party from 1992 to 2001, then by Labor from 2001 until 2012, when the LNP won the seat back.

At the first election in 1992 the seat was considered safe for the conservative parties and was fiercely contested by the Liberal Party and the National Party, with the National Party’s Allan Grice winning the seat.

Grice held the seat at the 1995 and 1998 elections, but was defeated in 2001 by the ALP’s Peta-Kaye Croft. Croft was re-elected in 2004, 2006 and 2009.

In 2012, Croft was defeated by Liberal National candidate Verity Barton, who easily knocked over Croft’s 2% margin with a 13.3% swing. Barton was re-elected in 2015.

Barton lost preselection before the 2017 election to David Crisafulli, who had previously held the Townsville-area seat of Mundingburra from 2012 to 2015. Crisafulli easily won Broadwater in 2017.

Candidates

Assessment
Broadwater is a very safe LNP seat.

2017 result

Candidate Party Votes % Swing
David Crisafulli Liberal National 13,499 48.5 -8.5
Peter Flori Labor 6,477 23.3 -1.5
Brenden Ball One Nation 5,959 21.4 +18.6
Daniel Kwon Greens 1,908 6.9 +1.1
Informal 1,100 3.8

2017 two-party-preferred result

Candidate Party Votes % Swing
David Crisafulli Liberal National 18,928 68.0 +1.7
Peter Flori Labor 8,915 32.0 -1.7

Booth breakdown

Booths in Broadwater have been divided into three areas: central, north and south.

The Liberal National Party won a majority of the two-party-preferred vote in all three areas, ranging from 55.8% in the centre to 68.5% in the north.

One Nation came third, with a primary vote ranging from 20.1% in the north to 25.2% in the centre.

Voter group ON prim LNP 2PP Total votes % of votes
North 20.1 68.5 7,036 25.3
South 20.9 61.2 3,919 14.1
Central 25.2 55.8 2,337 8.4
Pre-poll 22.7 73.0 9,731 34.9
Other votes 19.2 68.4 4,820 17.3

Election results in Broadwater at the 2017 QLD state election
Toggle between two-party-preferred votes and One Nation primary votes.


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17 COMMENTS

  1. For a very affluent area (just look at Runaway Bay and see what I mean) I’m surprised at how high the ONP vote was last time! With David Crisafulli well liked and touted as a future LNP Leader, the only thing to watch in this seat is how high will his vote go above 50% first pref. This is one seat, if it wasn’t QLD, I’d expect the Greens to be challenging for second of the 2CP, ala North Shore seats of Sydney. But seems the ONP have the protest vote for now and will be interesting to see if the can replicate their 2017 showing.

    Prediction (August 2020): LNP Retain

  2. September Prediction: Very easy LNP retain, Crisafulli no doubt between a rock and and a hard place here. Wants to be Premier, would surely be between him and Mander to get the leadership if they lose the upcoming election BUT should the LNP pull off a win, imagine trying to justify rolling Deb during the term?

  3. The redistribution before the 2017 election did the LNP a massive favour here – added almost 10% to their margin, which is why Crisafulli used it to get back into parliament. He’s lucky Verity Barton went quietly. Strange to see a seat held by Labor for a decade now the second-safest for the LNP in the state.

  5. I’m predicting that there is so much at stake in this election Queenslanders will decide they’ve had enough of the Majors and even in Runaway Bay One Nations Ex Liberal Jesse née Wheelan Schneider, at poll position may get the surprise of her life. State wide One Nation to hold the balance of power with Katters and even required to form a coalition to govern

  6. Pitty PM that you make no attempt to explain why your prediction is accurate. You may be right but not a single person will be persuaded without some hint as to how you came to these conclusions.

  7. Obvious LNP retain. The seat is also much safer in terms of redistribution that I couldn’t see the seat falling back to the Labor party again on the current margins. Even if Labor had one of those Beattie landslides.

    David Crisafulli will likely be the opposition leader if the LNP lose the next election. I actually get the sense Deb Frecklington would have been better served having Crisafulli as shadow treasurer. I know there has been some criticism of Tim Manders performance in the media. And that may have united some of the previous LNP executive who are fans of Crisafulli behind Frecklington’s leadership. But considering Crisafulli is a leadership threat Frecklington wouldn’t likely have allow that to happen.

    Interestingly the previous Labor member for Broadwater Peta-Kaye Croft endorsed Hetty Johnstons failed senate bid last year. I wonder why she left the Labor party presuming she has left.

    https://www.hettyjohnston.com.au/peta-kaye-croft-testimonial/

  11. Griceys old seat. I tell you what, if he apprached his politics the same way he approached his racing the speaker would have had their work cut out for them.

    Easy LNP retain

  12. Dave will just be another Campbell Newman all over again, He is not to be trusted!!!
    And he hasn’t been in parliament that long only 5 of 8 years he has. And why would a Gold Coastie win back the North? ALP landslide in 2024 if they choose him.

    Don’t let LNP supporters tell you he can unseat the premier he can’t. Even if the Premier kicked a dog she would still beat him.

    Tim Mander is a better bet because a conservative cannot win a state election and I told you Morrison was toxic up here so he only dug the LNP’s hole bigger when he came up here just like when Bob Brown came up here last year that hurt Labor. Queensland’s saw through it and they will see through it again in 4 years time. Mark my words.

    I’d love to know everyone’s opinion on Dave becoming leader (It is likely)

  13. Daniel, David Crisafulli was originally from the north – he previously represented Mundingburra before being parachuted into the Gold Coast. So he may still have some influence up there.

  14. Tim Mander will be 63 at the time of the next election, and 67 at the end of a hypothetical first term. The only reason to pick Mander is to save Crisafulli for the future.

    By the time the next election comes around, Labor would have been in power for 30 of the last 35 years. The election will be a referendum on their performance. If they are on the nose, it shouldn’t matter who is leading the LNP.

  15. This seat isn’t “Very Safe” because under similar boundaries this was held by Labor before 2012 for 11 years. If the ALP can rebuild on the GC then this could be in play when Crisafulli retires. There was a massive under average swing here in 2015 (only 4% IICR) perhaps because the previous Labor MP had allot of personal support and it suggests the margin should have been allot bigger than 11% in 2012. In 2017 One Nation preferences put the margin the this level (who mostly voted Labor in 2015) but this year it seems those ALP voters who voted One Nation last time switched to the LNP. Any reason why they went from ALP to ONP to LNP? What has changed this seat? Or was the ALP mp before 2012 really that popular?

  16. The Beattie and Bligh governments did win victories (1998 aside) as big or bigger than what Palaszczuk won this year, so that Labor vote here between 2001-09 would have been over inflated.

  17. There was a significant redistribution that greatly improved the Liberal margin in this seat. All of its good Labor areas were hived off to the new seat of Bonney.

    It’s really not the same seat that Labor won during the Beattie years.

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