LNP 1.7%
Incumbent MP
Sam O’Connor, since 2017.
Geography
Gold Coast. Bonney covers the suburbs of Arundel, Labrador and Biggera Waters.
History
Bonney was created at the 2017 election. The population of Bonney was previously contained in Broadwater and Southport.
Broadwater was created in 1992. The seat was held by the Nationals’ Allan Grice. Grice was defeated by Labor’s Peta-Kaye Croft in 2001. Croft was defeated by LNP candidate Verity Barton in 2012, and Barton was re-elected in 2015.
Southport was created in 1977. The seat was won by the Liberal Party’s Peter White, in 1977, and he was succeeded in 1980 by the National Party’s Doug Jennings. Jennings was succeeded by fellow Nationals MP Mick Veivers.
Labor’s Peter Lawlor defeated Veivers in 2001. He held the seat until 2012, when he lost to the LNP’s Rob Molhoek, who was re-elected in 2015 and 2017.
Bonney was won in 2017 by the LNP’s Sam O’Connor.
Candidates
- Leana Marquet (Independent)
- Sam O’Connor (Liberal National)
- Ash Borg (Labor)
- David Bark (United Australia)
- Michael Rix (One Nation)
- Amin Javanmard (Greens)
Assessment
Bonney is a very marginal seat.
2017 result
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing |
| Sam O’Connor | Liberal National | 11,405 | 43.9 | -0.1 |
| Rowan Holzberger | Labor | 9,279 | 35.7 | +0.7 |
| Amin Javanmard | Greens | 2,540 | 9.8 | +1.0 |
| Robert Buegge | Independent | 1,680 | 6.5 | +6.5 |
| Ron Nightingale | Independent | 1,095 | 4.2 | +4.2 |
| Informal | 1,633 | 5.9 |
2017 two-party-preferred result
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing |
| Sam O’Connor | Liberal National | 13,439 | 51.7 | -0.5 |
| Rowan Holzberger | Labor | 12,560 | 48.3 | +0.5 |
Booth breakdown
Booths in Bonney have been split into east and west.
Labor won a majority of the two-party-preferred vote at most election-day booths, with 50.2% in the west and 52.3%.
The LNP won a larger 56% majority in the pre-poll vote, and 53.3% amongst other votes, which was enough to win.
| Voter group | GRN prim | LNP 2PP | Total votes | % of votes |
| East | 12.3 | 47.7 | 7,196 | 27.7 |
| West | 9.1 | 49.8 | 6,263 | 24.1 |
| Pre-poll | 7.6 | 56.0 | 7,596 | 29.2 |
| Other votes | 10.3 | 53.3 | 4,944 | 19.0 |
Two-party-preferred votes in Bonney at the 2017 QLD state election
Ah the seat for the infamous suburb of ‘Lock-your-doors Lab-ra-dor’. I was really surprised this didn’t flip to ALP at the 2017 election, knowing the area. Speaking to those I know in this electorate, they are all annoyed with AnnaPal closing borders again, as this electorate relies on the GC booming tourism for a high chunk of employment. I’d normally say this is one ALP could target, but with the effect of the COVID restrictions biting… (And the LNP doing well in holding their GC seats.)
Prediction (August 2020): LNP Retain
Easy LNP retain. The local MP Sam O’Connor has been seriously impressive.
Labor only announced their candidate in the last couple of weeks and there’s been next to no love from the Premier or her Minister’s in this very marginal electorate. Their polling must show its out of reach for them this time.
September Prediction: LNP retain, expect a swing to them too. I just can’t see Labor picking up any seats on the Gold Coast, I think they’ll lose Gaven too.
Prediction (September 2020): LNP Retain [No change]
Polling in the Courier Mail: 3% swing to Labor (2pp) on the Gold / Sunshine Coasts, largely thanks to One Nation crashing. If that happens, they’ll win Bonney, hold Gaven, and get close in a few others a smidge further up the pendulum (Coomera, Currumbin, Theodore, Glass House and Caloundra are all between 3-4% for LNP).
Prediction: LNP Retain
I feel like this one is stronger for the LNP than Coomera and Currumbin. The 11% vote for independents last time seems to be overlooked. Maybe some of that goes directly to the LNP this time or via preferences from One Nation. The local member is high profile and has worked the electorate well all term.
I’m going to go with an LNP retain based on that, but if Labor is having good night and pushing 50 plus seats then this goes too as local factors won’t hold back the swing.
Given the slim margin and that this is the good ALP parts from both the old Southport and Broadwater, I don’t understand why this seat is not higher on the radar. Instead all the focus seems to be on Theodore and Coomera. Why?
This is a seat that is very winnable for the ALP in a good year, but I don’t see this being the year. By all accounts O’Connor has ran a strong campaign too.
Narrow LNP retain
Rate huge swing to LNP here while lots of Gold Coast swung towards Labor.
As I stated, top young, hard-working local member here translates to votes.