LNP 0.6%
Incumbent MP
Jason Costigan, since 2012.
Geography
North Queensland. The seat stretches along the Queensland coast from just north of Mackay to just south of Bowen. It covers parts of Mackay and Whitsunday local government areas, including Cannonvale, Airlie Beach, Proserpine, Calen and some outer northern and western suburbs of Mackay.
Redistribution
Whitsunday contracted, losing Mount Pleasant to Mackay and losing its south-western fringe to Burdekin. These changes increased the LNP margin from 0.4% to 0.6%.
History
Whitsunday was created for the 1950 election and was a solid seat for the Country/National party for most of its history.
The seat was held by three MPs from the Country Party or National Party from 1950 until 1989.
In 1989, the ALP won government for the first time in decades under its leader Wayne Goss. In a shock result, Whitsunday was won by the ALP’s Lorraine Bird.
Bird held the seat throughout the Goss government. She was defeated in 1998 by One Nation’s Harry Black. Black left One Nation in 1999 and helped found the City Country Alliance that year.
In 2001, Black ran as the City Country Alliance candidate, but was defeated by the ALP’s Jan Jarrett. Jarrett was re-elected in 2004, 2006 and 2009, and was appointed as Minister for Tourism, Manufacturing and Small Business in February 2011.
In 2012, Labor MP Jan Jarrett was defeated by LNP candidate Jason Costigan. Costigan was narrowly re-elected in 2015.
Candidates
- Noel Skippen (One Nation)
- Jason Costigan (Liberal National)
- Imogen Lindenberg (Greens)
- Dan Van Blarcom (Independent)
- Jenny Whitney (Katter’s Australian Party)
- Bronwyn Taha (Labor)
Assessment
Whitsunday is an extremely marginal seat and could go to either side. If Labor could win Whitsunday it would give them a buffer to help them hold onto power.
2015 election result
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing | Redist |
| Jason Costigan | Liberal National | 13,474 | 41.8 | -2.6 | 41.9 |
| Bronwyn Taha | Labor | 11,775 | 36.5 | +9.1 | 35.9 |
| Kylee Stanton | Palmer United Party | 4,047 | 12.5 | +12.5 | 12.6 |
| Tony Fontes | Greens | 1,972 | 6.1 | +0.2 | 6.5 |
| Dan Van Blarcom | Independent | 997 | 3.1 | +3.1 | 3.1 |
| Informal | 695 | 2.1 |
2015 two-party-preferred result
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing | Redist |
| Jason Costigan | Liberal National | 14,565 | 50.4 | -10.3 | 50.6 |
| Bronwyn Taha | Labor | 14,347 | 49.6 | +10.3 | 49.4 |
| Exhausted | 3,353 | 10.4 |
Booth breakdown
Booths in Whitsunday have been divided into three areas. Polling places on the outskirts of Mackay have been grouped, with the remainder split into centre and north.
The ALP won 53.6% of the two-party-preferred vote in the Mackay area, while the LNP won 50.3% in the north and 56.6% in the centre.
The Palmer United Party polled between 12% and 13% in all areas.
| Voter group | PUP prim % | ALP 2PP % | Total votes | % of votes |
| Mackay | 12.7 | 53.6 | 6,123 | 24.4 |
| North | 12.8 | 49.7 | 5,044 | 20.1 |
| Central | 12.2 | 43.4 | 2,865 | 11.4 |
| Other votes | 12.6 | 48.3 | 11,059 | 44.1 |
Election results in Whitsunday at the 2015 QLD state election
Click on the ‘visible layers’ box to toggle between two-party-preferred votes and Palmer United Party primary votes.
This is the only seat I see falling to Labor from LNP hands. Bronwyn Taha has really ramped up her campaign on cyclone disaster funding. PHON preferences will be crucial to deciding the winner.
@PRP I hope so, Costigan is the definition of a shocking local member and a bad dude all round. You’d think Labor will need PHON preferences though?
2016 senate numbers here were LNP 37.0 ALP 30.6 PHON 21.0 GRN 7.2 OTH 4.2
So yeah, if PHON preferences flow 60%+ one way or the other it looks like it’s game over in this seat. I am still very dubious whether PHON can actually cause their preference flow to change though. Do they get HTV cards into many hands? Are their voters more or less likely to follow them?
Bennee in the WA election PHON preferenced Liberals in every seat, and Liberal volunteers even handed out for PHON to get their how to votes in people’s hands. Preferences still split 50/50. Granted this was in a low tide election for Liberals, but I don’t think PHON voters are the most loyal HTV followers even when they have one in their hand.
On the other hand PHON preferences are largely credited with giving Longman to the ALP.
Fascinating that the Premier jetted here first. A great battleground seat complicated by One Nation plus a high profile Katter candidate. If Katter candidate beats One Nation I expect those preferences will see them get into the 2ppv then win. That said, likely One Nation outpolls them. One to watch.
This seat seems likely to be either a KAP or One Nation win, with the preference deal it would depend on who has a higher first preference vote, though with labor preferencing KAP over One Nation then the seat would probably fall to KAP unless the 2pp is between KAP and One Nation.
Define “likely”?????
Are you suggesting the LNP will drop to third?
lots of comments say kap here and esp onp there…… but no one really knows…… in any case if onp wins 10 or more seats…… and holds the numerical balance of power….. then there will be no deals with labor…… any deal with anyone will only be with the lnp and will be very unstable…..there will be a new election within 1 year……….. in the mean time ministers or no ministers for onp……….. Queensland will be a joke.
also remember where ever onp wins seats it is with lots of help from the lnp
#Newspoll QLD State Seat of Whitsunday Primary Votes: LNP 31 (-10.7 since election) ALP 32 (-3.8) ON 19 (+19) KAP 7 (+7) GRN 7 (+0.4) #qldvotes #auspol
Source: @ghostwhovotes (Twitter)
LNP retain on these numbers.
Although I missed the 2pp tweet that followed it:
#Newspoll QLD State Seat of Whitsunday 2 Party Preferred: LNP 49 (-1.6 since election) ALP 51 (+1.6) #qldvotes #auspol
Greens preferences go 85% plus to Labor. Katter goes to ONP with a little leak elsewhere. One Nation then disperses nearly 50/50. Makes sense Labor in front.
Just note the six seat polls have a 4.4% margin of error.
It will be funny to see Jason “Stacks on the mill, we’re only ten away from oranges” Costigan lose this one.
ALP gain
I am predicting a knife edge result here. If Katter preferences lift One Nation above LNP for 2PP then One Nation win. If not then I think Labor wins.
ECQ might be changing who the 2PP cpunt is between mid evening. Might not be called on Saturday.
Too close to call, hardest seat of the election. I can see scenarios that have Labor, LNP or PHON winning it. However after Costigan’s dodgy deal with former One Nation member, I think LNP might just retain but it’s a pure guess.