ALP 5.7%
Incumbent MP
Scott Stewart, since 2015.
Geography
Central Townsville. The seat covers the Townsville CBD and the suburbs of Castle Hill, Garbutt, Mount Louisa and Bohle, as well as Magnetic Island and Palm Island.
Redistribution
No change.
History
The seat of Townsville has existed continuously since 1970, and previously existed from 1878 to 1960.
The seat has been dominated by the Labor Party for most of the twentieth century, although Labor domination has occasionally been punctuated by Coalition victories.
The ALP had held the seat for all but three years from 1915 to 1960, but after the seat was restored in 1972 it was won by the Liberal Party’s Norman Scott-Young. He held it until 1983.
The 1983 election was triggered by the breakdown in the coalition between Joh Bjelke-Petersen’s National Party and the Liberal Party, and a majority of Liberal MPs lost their seats, including Scott-Young.
Ken McElligott won Townsville for the ALP, but three years later lost to the National Party’s Tony Burreket.
Burreket lost to the ALP’s Ken Davies in 1989. In 1992, Davies moved to the neighbouring seat of Mundingburra. He retained Mundingburra by a bare 16-vote margin. The result was overturned in the courts in 1996. The ALP decided to replace Davies as the ALP candidate, and he ran as an independent. The Liberal Party won the race, and resulted in the ALP losing its parliamentary majority and the National-Liberal coalition forming a new government.
Geoff Smith was elected to Townsville for the ALP in 1992, and held it for two terms until 1998. He was succeeded in 1998 by Mike Reynolds. Reynolds served as a minister from 2004 to 2006 and as Speaker of the Legislative Assembly from 2006 to 2009, when he retired.
Mandy Johnstone was elected to Townsville in 2009 for the ALP. In 2012, Johnstone was defeated by LNP candidate John Hathaway. Hathaway was defeated in 2015 by Labor’s Scott Stewart.
Candidates
- Lindy Collins (Independent)
- Scott Stewart (Labor)
- Rebecca Ryan (Greens)
- Casie Scott (Liberal National)
- Allan Evans (One Nation)
Assessment
Townsville is a marginal Labor seat, but is only likely to change hands if the LNP wins a comfortable victory.
2015 election result
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing |
| Scott Stewart | Labor | 11,267 | 40.1 | +10.8 |
| John Hathaway | Liberal National | 10,130 | 36.0 | -2.6 |
| Alan Birrell | Palmer United Party | 2,697 | 9.6 | +9.6 |
| Gail Hamilton | Greens | 2,356 | 8.4 | +0.7 |
| Leanne Rissman | One Nation | 1,079 | 3.8 | +3.8 |
| Michael Punshon | Family First | 596 | 2.1 | -0.5 |
| Informal | 613 | 2.1 |
2015 two-party-preferred result
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing |
| Scott Stewart | Labor | 14,280 | 55.7 | +10.5 |
| John Hathaway | Liberal National | 11,360 | 44.3 | -10.5 |
| Exhausted | 2,485 | 8.8 |
Booth breakdown
Booths in Townsville have been divided into four areas. Polling places on offshore islands have been grouped together, with the remainder split into centre, south and west.
The ALP won a majority of the two-party-preferred vote in all four areas, ranging from 54.4% in the centre to 61% in the south.
The Palmer United Party came third, with a vote ranging from 7.5% in the centre to 11.5% in the west. The Greens vote ranged from 5.5% in the west to 12.6% on the islands.
| Voter group | PUP prim % | GRN prim % | ALP 2PP % | Total votes | % of votes |
| Central | 7.5 | 9.6 | 54.4 | 7,824 | 27.8 |
| West | 11.5 | 5.5 | 58.7 | 6,226 | 22.1 |
| South | 10.0 | 9.6 | 61.4 | 3,913 | 13.9 |
| Islands | 9.4 | 12.6 | 58.0 | 1,713 | 6.1 |
| Other votes | 10.0 | 7.9 | 51.5 | 8,449 | 30.0 |
Two-party-preferred in Townsville at the 2015 QLD state election
Not sold on this seat being retained by Labor, the LNP have an excellent candidate. It’s clear both sides are giving the Townsville City a swathe of promises to win them over.
In addition to this being an LNP, Labor contest, One Nation surely is in with a shot especially when their polling very well in Townsville.
The LNP will win this seat. Good candidate who’s popular locally and has a profile. Running the whole Labor has done for crime line and crime is out of hand there. Even if Labor retain gov, I expect LNP to win this.
I can’t see the LNP winning Townsville without a decent statewide swing. (As for One Nation, no chance.)
There was polling a few months back that was on the northern seats around Townsville and Cairns. It suggested Labor’s primary was lower here than the rest of the state. On top of this I suspevt the Palmer pregerences here flowed around 75% to 80% to Palmer. This third party pregerence flow will be quite different this time. One Nation will flow at least 55% to LNP. On top of thus Casie us an exceptional candidate. You can tell through the groundwork she is doing, her social media use, traditional media coverage and the issues she is focusing on (which resonate with the electorate).
I wouldn’t be surprised on first preference to see something like 33% LNP 30% ALP then ONP and KAP preferences delivering it to LNP.
Casie will win it – Sportsbet have her about $6, it’s the bet of the election.
How does everyone figure the ALP are dead here? 2015 results with full preferences would have likely been 57.0-43.0 which is truly a mountain.
PHON isn’t going to knock either major party into 3rd here, and to assume PHON primary will cause that 2PP vote to change drastically to assume someone that was putting ALP>LNP will now go PHON>LNP? Why would that make sense?
Townsville is a conundrum. Qld Nickel and the gross failure of both ALP and LNP to address this must have a significant effect.
ALP would be winning by a huge margin if ALP had nationalized Palmers plant and paid him what he had oit listed for. OR Nationalized it without compensation and taken decisive action to put him where he belongs.
@Bennee because this seat will be like it’s own by-election. The LNP are running very hard on crime in the area and have a decent candidate who’s running a very grass roots campaign, who herself was a victim of crime. I can see LNP winning this even if they don’t win government. Big swing likely against Labor here.
Absolutely agree with Feel the Bern. I think the LNP has a real shot here despite the margin thanks to both the crime and jobs issues combined with an active candidate.
LNP gain
I’m daring to call an LNP win. All the Townsville areas seats will experience the biggest primary swings against Labor of anywhere in the state. One Nation won’t do as well here as the neighbouring seats. Casie will be sligjtly in front before preferences and then extend her lead.
LNP win.
Looks like Casie is killing it in pre-poll and now leads Townsville. I expect LNP to hold on there now. That hurts.
FTB, looks like you and QO were right about this one! Are you a Townsville local?
Not in Townsville no but I follow North Qld politics closely and I know Casie. You really got the sense her message about youth crime was cutting through there and Labor focused more on Thuringowa and Mundingburra.