LNP 1.6%
Incumbent MP
Trevor Watts, since 2012.
Geography
Northern parts of Toowoomba, including central Toowoomba as well as Wilsonton, Rockville, Mount Lofty, North Toowoomba, East Toowoomba, Harlaxton and parts of Newtown.
Redistribution
No change.
History
The seat of Toowoomba North was first contested at the 1972 election. While the seat has been held by conservative parties for a majority of its existence, it has often been won by the ALP.
The seat was first won in 1972 by the ALP’s Ray Bousen, but he lost in a landslide victory for the Bjelke-Petersen government in 1974. John Lockwood of the Liberal Party won the seat in 1974.
Lockwood held the seat until the 1983 election, when he was defeated by Sandy McPhie of the National Party. At the 1983 election, the coalition between the National Party and the Liberal Party was dissolved, and a majority of Liberal MPs were defeated for re-election, including Lockwood.
McPhie held the seat until 1989, when he was defeated by the ALP’s John Flynn as part of the ALP’s return to power under Wayne Goss. Flynn lost in 1992 to the National Party’s Graham Healy.
Healy was re-elected in 1995 and served as a parliamentary secretary in the Borbidge government in 1998. He then served as a shadow minister after the ALP won the 1998 election.
In 2001, Peter Beattie’s ALP won a second term in a landslide, and the ALP’s Kerry Shine defeated Healy in Toowoomba North. Shine served as Attorney-General in the Beattie and Bligh governments from 2006 to 2009, and held the seat until 2012.
In 2012, Shine was defeated by LNP candidate Trevor Watts. Watts was re-elected in 2015.
Candidates
- Emmeline Chidley (Greens)
- Paul Wilson (One Nation)
- Josie Townsend (Independent)
- Trevor Watts (Liberal National)
- Kerry Shine (Labor)
Assessment
Toowoomba North is a marginal LNP seat, and could fall to Labor if the government does well.
2015 election result
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing |
| Trevor Watts | Liberal National | 13,932 | 44.4 | -5.4 |
| Kerry Shine | Labor | 12,166 | 38.8 | +6.5 |
| Mandeep Sandhu | Palmer United Party | 1,578 | 5.0 | +5.0 |
| Ken Gover | Greens | 1,430 | 4.6 | -0.3 |
| Ken Elliott | Katter’s Australian Party | 1,050 | 3.3 | -8.3 |
| John Sands | Family First | 871 | 2.8 | +2.8 |
| Greg Keane | Independent | 347 | 1.1 | -0.3 |
| Informal | 606 | 1.9 |
2015 two-party-preferred result
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing |
| Trevor Watts | Liberal National | 14,999 | 51.6 | -8.0 |
| Kerry Shine | Labor | 14,064 | 48.4 | +8.0 |
| Exhausted | 2,311 | 7.4 |
Booth breakdown
Booths in Toowoomba North have been divided into three areas: east, north and south.
The LNP won a majority of the two-party-preferred vote in two out of three areas, polling 52.2% in the north and 52.8% in the east. Labor won 57.7% in the south.
| Voter group | LNP 2PP % | Total votes | % of votes |
| North | 52.2 | 9,900 | 31.6 |
| East | 52.8 | 6,535 | 20.8 |
| South | 42.3 | 5,115 | 16.3 |
| Other votes | 55.1 | 9,824 | 31.3 |
Two-party-preferred in Toowoomba North at the 2015 QLD state election
You can see why the inclusion of Highfields was so contested in the initial stage of the redistribution. It’s basically the entire LNP margin in one booth.
Hearing One Nation are a very legit threat to this seat, unreleased internal polling by both the LNP and Labor apparently showing PHON almost leading on the primary.
This may be a crucial Labor gain they need for a majority, as the PHON candidate is directing preferences Kerry Shine’s way. Anybody know how Josie Townsend’s preferences are flowing?
But if PHON beat Labor then this seat would probably stay LNP unless PHON has a big fpv lead
I’d be very surprised if PHON finishes in the top two in Toowoomba North.
JOsie TOwnsends PReferences probably will not matter. CHances of an independent amnning the booths are slim.
Most Independent voters are just stressed Major Party Voters and will probably place PReferences with one of majors.
One advantage of voting independent is to keep money from Registered Political Parties. Is it $2.90 a vote they get in State Campaigns? MY copy of Act (S225) puts figure at $2.90 (or less if they spend less than this). However I am not sure if my copy of Act is up to date and in this time of environmental concern only way to update is to print all298 Pages. Shame on Newman Regime for closing GOPRINT and SDS where Legislation (and Amendments thereto) could be bought. LNP to blame but in 2 !/2 Years ALP have done nothing to address the Governmental failure.
Andrew Jackson
apjackson@hotkey.net.au
what was the 2016 federal election vote in this seat? suspect Labor polled 10% better at the last state election…………………..
LNP retain despite Labor’s attention on the seat.
LNP retain. Could be what costs Labor a majority.