South Brisbane – QLD 2017

ALP 13.8%

Incumbent MP
Jackie Trad, since 2012.

Geography

Central Brisbane. South Brisbane covers suburbs in on the south side of the Brisbane River in central Brisbane, specifically West End, Highgate Hill, Kangaroo Point, East Brisbane, South Brisbane, Woolloongabba and Dutton Park.

Redistribution
South Brisbane lost its eastern edge, including Stones Corner and the remainder of Greenslopes and Coorparoo, to the seat of Greenslopes. There were also some changes to the southern boundary with the seat of Miller. These changes did not affect the Labor margin.

History
The seat of South Brisbane has existed continuously since 1860. The seat has been won by the ALP at almost all elections since 1915.

The seat was once held by Premier Vince Gair from 1932 to 1960. He was expelled in 1957 and formed the Queensland Labor Party, and later served as a Democratic Labor Party Senator from 1964 to 1973.

The ALP held the seat from 1960 to 1974. The seat was held by the Liberal Party for one term from 1974 to 1977 and has been held by the ALP since 1977.

Jim Fouras won the seat in 1977, and held it until 1986, when he lost ALP preselection to Anne Warner. He later held the seat of Ashgrove from 1989 to 2006, serving as Speaker from 1990 to 1996.

Warner had previously won the seat of Kurilpa in 1983, but her original seat was abolished in 1986. She served as a minister in the Goss government until her retirement in 1995.

South Brisbane has been held by Anna Bligh since 1995. Bligh became a minister in the new Beattie government in 1998. In 2005, she became Deputy Premier, and succeeded Peter Beattie as Premier in 2007. She won another term as Premier in 2009.

In 2012, Anna Bligh led the ALP to a massive defeat, with the party losing all but seven seats. Bligh held on in South Brisbane by a 4.7% margin, after a swing to the LNP of over 10%.

Bligh resigned from her seat immediately after the election. Labor’s Jackie Trad won the following by-election by a slim 1.7% margin. Trad was re-elected in 2015, and has served as deputy premier since the 2015 election.

Candidates

  • Karel Boele (Independent)
  • Jackie Trad (Labor)
  • Cameron Murray (Independent)
  • Amy MacMahon (Greens)
  • Karagh-Mae Kelly (Independent)
  • Simon Quinn (Liberal National)
  • Frank Jordan (Independent)

Assessment
Labor is at no risk of losing South Brisbane to the Liberal National Party. The seat is a top target for the Greens, who won the overlapping Brisbane City Council ward of The Gabba in 2016.

2015 election result

Candidate Party Votes % Swing Redist
Jackie Trad Labor 12,355 42.7 +4.2 42.0
Fiona Ward Liberal National 9,321 32.2 -5.9 32.6
Jonathan Sri Greens 6,320 21.8 +3.8 22.4
Karel Boele Independent 930 3.2 +1.3 3.1
Informal 484 1.6

2015 two-party-preferred result

Candidate Party Votes % Swing Redist
Jackie Trad Labor 17,697 63.8 +9.1 63.8
Fiona Ward Liberal National 10,045 36.2 -9.1 36.2
Exhausted 1,184 4.1

Booth breakdown

Booths in South Brisbane have been divided into three areas: north, south and west.

The ALP won a majority of the two-party-preferred vote in all three areas. Labor won only 55% in the north, but polled over 70% in the other two areas.

The Greens vote ranged from 18% in the north to almost 29% in the west.

Voter group GRN prim % ALP 2PP % Total votes % of votes
West 28.8 72.1 6,191 26.5
North 18.1 55.3 4,742 20.3
South 23.5 70.7 2,856 12.2
Other votes 20.0 59.8 9,549 40.9

Election results in South Brisbane at the 2015 QLD state election
Click on the ‘visible layers’ box to toggle between two-party-preferred votes and Greens primary votes.

29 COMMENTS

  1. Despite the Greens obnoxious claims of being able to win this seat, they probably won’t get up in this seat at this election. They are a great deal behind, and recent events have likely damaged the party’s reputation among soft Greens or Greens sympathetic ALP supporters.

  2. The Greens saw a +14% swing towards them in 2016 The Gabba Ward election (Labor got -15% and finished 3rd) which is very similar boundaries. 2016 Griffith election was +7% (Labor -7%) and actually almost 10% if you look only at booths shared by this state seat.

    The seat is definitely greener than 2015. I don’t think the Greens are favourites to take down the deputy premier but they certainly have a significant chance.

    Interesting that you’ve commented on the two seats where the Greens have the best chance saying they have no chance (Maiwar and this one). There certainly is a culture of wishful thinking in 3rd party campaign analysis, but this time the maths is there and I think it’s more likely the Greens win 1+ seats than win 0 seats.

  3. This would normally be considered a safe Labor seat, however the impact of compulsory preferencing will have more effect here than anywhere else in Queensland.

    It all depends how much mischief the LNP wants to cause. There is certainly the option to “run dead” and come third in order to preference away from Jackie Trad and towards the Greens.

  4. Can’t really see the Greens winning here. Labor should win quite easily just off the back of Trad’s personal vote.
    It will be interesting to see if the Greens can finish second which would be a successful election target.
    My guess would be Labor 40%, the Greens 28%, LNP 26% and Labor over the Greens 62-38.

  5. CountZero,

    The LNP still finished >10% ahead of the Greens, and any Greens improvement would likely come more (or just as much) from Labor than the LNP.

    It wouldn’t be easy for the LNP to finish third “running dead” even if they wanted to.

  6. LIberal Candidate Quinn is in Courier Mail today saying he will beat Jackie TRad. My guess is that his preferences will be more important than his candidature So all his expenses will do no more than determine if Jackie Trad or an Amy McMahon will be MLA for South Brisbane.

    Why has he not sent you details of his candidature?

    At least there is some activity by LNPm SOuth of River. I thought they had gone into hibernation.

    Andrew Jackson
    apjackson@hotkey.net.au

  7. Andrew Jackson there really seems no urgency in this election and the lack of choice for voters should increase the informal votes across the state. Surprised that the Australian conservatives and the former Family First have failed to gain registration along with the LDP and others. A Very lack lustre election indeed.

  8. Tony is certainly correct about the lacklustre nature of this campaign.

    THe unpleasant choice we face is between LIberals and Labor with only extremists on Left or RIght as an alternative. THere is no sensible alternative for most electors. Katter has retreated to NQ and has no known candidates South of GLadstone. DLP has all but disappeared and FF has merged into the Austrian School of Economics . The Australian Country Party is unlikely to field candidates at Queensland election although I understand plans are to contest FEderal election.

    I agree with TOny about the ALP and PReferences. THe chances of ALP ringing ON re a preference deal verge on NIL. For a start with ON the way it is internally at the moment. THey are currently as fractious as ALP was in January 1955. no one would negotiate with any of them because No one outside of the AShby/Hanson clique can speak with any authority and even they could be rolled before the election. Ashby hangs around PH neck in the same way as Peta CRedlin hung TOny Abbott. THis is of course assuming that nothing comes of the 4 Corners “Please explain” programme. No explanation has been forthcoming just the same sort of bovine excreta that one expects from the marketing departments of major parties (and most large corporations today) which of course is where most of PHON came from.

    It is appalling that the ALP candidate Jackie Trad is the closest thing to a middle of the road party contesting South Brisbane. In 2012 Katter stood in this seat and from 1957 to 1960 VInce Gair held the seat for QLP and from 1960 to 1970’s a conservative ALP member Col Bennett held the seat for ALP.

    I am worked it out that since 1967 I have handed out How To Votes (Once for DLP and once for Katter in this seat but am glad I do not have to cast a vote today. IF I has d to I I would be forced to vote for Jackie Trad but every instinct in me tells me she should not be in Parliament.

    For Greens to win they will need Liberal Preferences and surely no liberal in their right mind would want to drag the ALP to the extremities of neo-Marxism in inner city Greenland.

    Andrew Jackson
    apjackson@hotkey.net.au

  9. Andrew, I do admire your knowledge and experience within state politics or should I say passion but at the end of the day, our conversations are all just opinion pieces. No polls have been released and even if they had they are not worth a pinch of salt. I have been told by numerous people that they are giving up on the two old parties because there is no hard difference between the two anymore, they bag each other a lot but in most cases at different times agree on the same issues.

    If you look at the rhetoric between Bill and Malcolm you would see this over a period of time, the only reason we have these two parties now is that it’s the way it’s always been. The reason Pauline and Corey etc are so popular is not that people are simple it’s because people are slowly giving up on the same old.

    People don’t need to be told, sold or spoken down to, they need a voice and people who listen. Funny things happen in elections and President Trump was 5% behind in polls the day before the election yet won. In France, both major parties were defeated. In the UK right-wing parties claimed one of the biggest increases in history. In NZ, the NZ first party now holds the balance of power and will decide on the next winner. Times are changing at a rate of knots and the political landscape in the next few years will certainly be interesting.

  10. Shaun
    THanks for complementary part of post. This compliment is applicable to all who take ther trouble to post on Tallyroom.

    With respect to your last para however you are factually wrong in nearly every sebntence:

    1 ) Trump was beaten on Primary votes by CLinton by 2.1% (last OPinion POll I can find shows her beating him by 3.2%. Inaccurate but not far out.) For factual details of poll results see: https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/latest_polls/

    2) UK Brexit polls were all over the place and last ones I can find were very very close to being accurate.http://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-eu-referendum-36271589Oll tracker has details of all polls and bluntly the coverage of inaccurate polls by Australian media was inaccurate reading by journalists. See http://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-eu-referendum-36271589

    3) UKIP) result went from 4% to 2% in UK General election (THis can hardly be counted as their “biggest increase in history” UKIP lost its only MP. UKIP is similar to PHON

    4) NZ First Vote dropped from 9% to 7.5% according to NZ ELectoral COmmission. If I had been a KIwi I would have voted NZ First so I take no pleasure in this decline. NZ First is similar in policies to Country Party, DLP or Katter. see http://electionresults.govt.nz

    5) France is the only case where new parties play a part in Government rather than determining who the Govt will be and in this case Macron is not an extremist of the Left or RIght but a Centrist.

    THis post seems to have strayed a long way from South Brisbane.

    Andrew Jackson
    apjackson@hotkey.net.au

  11. @ Shaun while I agree with some of the points you make above (I would never in a million years vote One Nation but plenty will) but some of what you say isn’t true. Polling in Australia is highly reliable because of the compulsory voting and polling shows One Nation are doing well, not sure why people are saying it isn’t. As for Trump, well polls didn’t get it wrong, HRC won the popular vote as polling suggested but Trump won the states that mattered – and individual polling on those states showed Trump winning them, it’s just our media didn’t focus on them. It’s such a myth Trump defied the polls, he didn’t if you studied the polls as I did. As for the UK, there was not a big swing to right wing parties in their general election (I’m talking general election not Brexit) – UKIP lost a heap of vote, they were decimated TBH, it was in fact Labour who had the big swing to them, a Labour party led by an anti establishment socialist. So again, you make some good points above but some were a tad incorrect. Happy to hear your thoughts though.

  12. Report in the Courier Mail says that LNP will put the Greens last in South Brisbane. This has caused division with some of the LNP executive who would like to see Trad gone, and with that likely ends the chances for the Greens in South Brisbane.

    Greens campaign is going flat out, its been reported their even recruiting volunteers from interstate to work on the campaign which some have suggested is a “Ring in” campaign.

    I see South Brisbane as the Greens best chance and only realistic chance. I just don’t see them in the final two in McConnell or Maiwear.

  13. Political night watchman the Greens don’t need LNP preferences; Bandt didn’t have them in 2013 and 2016.

    The goal is for Trad to come 3rd and for Greens to overtake LNP with her preferences. Labor came 3rd in the council ward. When you look at the sort of Campaign the Greens are running, which looks designed mainly to pick up disgruntled Labor voters, the numbers sort of work out.

    Final 2 is very possible in Maiwar; Greens only need to convince a relatively small % of Labor voters to switch; not hard with big ticket progressive issues and a highly visible campaign. The real challenge will be taking even a few % off the LNP; Higgins last year showed that even with a highly active campaign it’s very hard to dislodge even a few % off the LNP.

    McConnel looks very tough but when you look at the council results it’s not quite as doomed; only a few % separates Greens and Labor, so you can see why they’re having a go.

    On the other hand in Paddington Ward, Greens actually did come 2nd with LNP not so high that they can’t be beaten, but they seem to be running dead in Cooper.

  14. The only lower house seat Greens ever won with Liberal preferences was Adam Bandt in 2010. Every other seat either involved Labor coming 3rd and boosting the Greens over the LNP (like Balmain 2011, Prahran 2014, Ballina 2015), or Greens coming first and winning with preference leakage (like state and federal Melbourne and Newtown).

  15. Labor’s vote was nearly double the Greens’ in 2015. It seems a very big ask for them to force Labor into third place.

    They will have a big enough struggle to even finish second ahead of the Liberal, imo…

  16. The maths for the Greens here is to flip 1 in 4 ALP voters Green, excluding Trad in 3rd (Jono Sri did exactly this in the almost identical 2016 Gabba Ward election).

    In Maiwar they only need to flip 1 in 10 ALP, but also need 1 in 20 of LNP.

    McConnel the Greens would need 1 in 4 ALP, same as South Brisbane.

  18. A poll came out showing Greens ahead of Labor 51/49 2PP, but the primary votes being ALP 38% and LNP and Greens both on 29%; on those numbers Trad wins easily and it looks like the above comments are right.

    Greens still have work to do. First they need to get into the top 2; not easy given polls tend to underestimate conservatives.

    Then, they need to overcome the LNP how to vote cards; LNP voters are very strict HTV followers. Adam Bandt managed to get Liberal preference flows down to 60/40 to Labor in 2013, but on these numbers Greens actually need to pick up more votes than Labor from preferences.

    Very strange that without the prompting of how to vote cards, 80% of Liberal voters prefer Greens over Labor (at least in that poll).

  20. I think LNP voters in South Brisbane would ebb the first to scream if power was disconnected to the inner city. THey like COal for themselves but resent Induians having it.

  21. Andrew Jackson, perhaps they believe the science on climate change?

    If we factor the knowledge we now have of the effects of emissions it’s obvious that emitting is not a net to humans in aggregate, in Brisbane, in Townsville, in India, wherever.

    It’s like asbestos or lead waterpipes, jeeze we wish they weren’t so dangerous but once we knew they were we had to upturn current practice.

  25. Essential poll, 430 respondents

    GRN 36%
    ALP 32%
    LNP 24%
    Undecided 8%

    I’m just wondering if the LNP might decide to only to put 1 volunteer at each booth or something. Respondent allocated preferences in previous poll heavily favour Amy MacMahon but the LNP HTV would give the edge to Jackie Trad.

  28. Not everyone follows HTV cards. There’s a real campaign to oust Trad, I think even some LNP people want to see her gone.

  29. Bern .. All LNP voters would want Trad gone but not if she’s replaced by an ‘evil’ Green. The vast majority of voters will just follow the party line on HTV cards. Not many are Old School like me – I still fill out every number on the Senate ballots!

    Additionally, for a guy who is obviously an ALP insider, you seem almost paranoid about the results. You seem to have Labor winning about 30 seats.

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