ALP 14.0%
Incumbent MP
Bill Byrne, since 2012.
Geography
Central Queensland. Rockhampton covers most of the suburbs of Rockhampton, including all of the city south of the Fitzroy River.
Redistribution
Rockhampton expanded slightly on its north-eastern and north-western corner, taking in parts of Koongal from Keppel.
History
The seat of Rockhampton was first created in 1865, and existed until its abolition in 1960. The seat was restored in 1972. The seat has been held by the ALP since 1912, with the exception of two periods when the sitting Labor MP broke away from the party.
The restored seat was won in 1972 by the ALP’s Keith Wright. He was elected leader of the ALP in 1982. In 1984 he left the Legislative Assembly to take the federal seat of Capricornia. In 1993 he lost his preselection for Capricornia after being charged with child sex offences and rape, and lost his seat at that year’s election.
Paul Braddy won Rockhampton in 1985. He served as a minister in the Beattie and Bligh governments. In 1995 he moved to the seat of Kedron. He retired in 2001 when the seat of Kedron was abolished.
Robert Schwarten won the seat of Rockhampton in 1995. He had held the seat of Rockhampton North from 1989 until 1992, when his seat was abolished and he contested the new seat of Keppel. He lost to the National Party candidate.
Schwarten served as a minister in the Beattie and Bligh governments from 1998 to 2011, and stepped down from the ministry in February 2011.
In 2012, Schwarten retired and was succeeded by Labor’s Bill Byrne. Byrne was re-elected in 2015.
Candidates
- Douglas Rodgers (Liberal National)
- Barry O’Rourke (Labor)
- Margaret Strelow (Independent)
- Wade Rothery (One Nation)
- Kate Giamarelos (Greens)
Assessment
Rockhampton is a safe Labor seat.
2015 election result
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing | Redist |
| Bill Byrne | Labor | 15,432 | 52.9 | +13.1 | 52.9 |
| Bridie Luva | Liberal National | 8,869 | 30.4 | -1.4 | 30.4 |
| Michelle Taylor | Greens | 1,863 | 6.4 | +2.9 | 6.2 |
| Sally-Anne Vincent | Family First | 1,703 | 5.8 | +3.2 | 5.3 |
| Anne O’Connor | Independent | 1,317 | 4.5 | +3.5 | 4.1 |
| Palmer United Party | 0.8 | ||||
| Others | 0.3 | ||||
| Informal | 818 | 2.7 |
2015 two-party-preferred result
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing | Redist |
| Bill Byrne | Labor | 17,301 | 63.9 | +9.9 | 64.0 |
| Bridie Luva | Liberal National | 9,787 | 36.1 | -9.9 | 36.0 |
| Exhausted | 2,096 | 7.2 |
Booth breakdown
Booths in Rockhampton have been divided into three areas: central, north and south. The north covers those areas on the northern side of the river.
The ALP won a majority of the two-party-preferred vote in all three areas, ranging from 61.4% in the south to 69% in the north.
| Voter group | ALP 2PP % | Total votes | % of votes |
| North | 69.0 | 10,759 | 33.6 |
| South | 61.4 | 6,693 | 20.9 |
| Central | 65.2 | 3,868 | 12.1 |
| Other votes | 60.0 | 10,739 | 33.5 |
Two-party-preferred votes in Rockhampton at the 2015 QLD state election
Bill Byrne has announced his retirement from politics and cabinet.
LNP made comment on commercial TV news tonight that ROckhampton will be a tight contest. Having lived on periphery of ROckhampton seat I think any ALP candidate will win hands down. I have heard the expression ALP would win ROckhampton if their candidate was a dead dog.
I never had any dealings with BIll Byrne but respected his predecessor Rob Schwarten .
Clearly Mr BYrne should be allowed to retire and forcing him to serve out the term as
a backbencher shows a weakness in our By-election process. .
LNP chances of winning <1%
ON chance of winning 95%. IT would take them endorsing the FItzroy Saltwater CRocodile to lose ROckhampton. PRoviding the CRock behaved during the election and did not eat a child it probably would be elected.
If this iswhat KNPO think is a tight contest their screws are not loose but completely detached,
Adani jobs will help ALP especially in stopping leaks to AShby-Hanson possibly losing a few st preferences to GReens but these will flow back to ALP as second preferences if needed.
Andrew, I was surprised that federally the National Party held Capricornia at the last federal election. Is that because the current member is doing a good job or is Labor putting up poor candidates? Just wondering.
I would have thought LNP holding onto Capricornia was a combination of Labor’s weak performance in Queensland generally, and a sophomore surge for Landry.
I’m still very surprised that Labor won Herbert and Longman
One Nation are a sneaky chance here, especially if reports are right of a high profile candidate. CQ is absolute Pauline territory.
One Nation could do well here, with small towns voting for PHON. Additionally, if there is a high profile candidate and they manage to beat the LNP then they may gain the seat on the back of LNP preferences. Could be up there with Bundaberg as best regional towns for One Nation.
Also, the greens could increase their vote here as a result of being the only party that is actually against Adani however they will just preference Labor.
If Rocky is “Pauline territory” then a quarter of the state is. It was 22nd highest PHON vote in the 2016 senate (of the 93 new state electorates).
I’m not looking too much into how people voted in the senate, One Nation barely had a campaign other than Pauline’s own one. She is very welcomed in CQ. One Nation should get Keppel and go close in Mirani too. Hope Labor hold this but they need to pick someone other than the mayor.
Just announced that mayor Margaret Strelow will contest as an Independent. Throws the contest wide open, especially if she preferences One Nation over Labor and One Nation preferences her, could throw the contest wide open.
Wasn’t One Nation boasting about an ex Broncos player running here?
I’d be surprised if a Labor mayor preferenced One Nation over Labor.
Margaret Strelow’s standing will split the ALP primary vote but not the 2 Party Preferred vote. Preferences will flow from Strelow to ALP (probably not the other way on HTV,) ALP are extreme in their discipline. If Strelow is elected she would be a safe vote for an ALP government.
. A far bigger risk to ALP would be Schwarten standing.
Strelow is well known in Rockhampton but I do not think well liked
One month after election MLA for Rocky will either be ALP or so close to ALP that it will not matter
Andrew Jackson
apjackson@hotkey.net.au
An incredible dummy spit from someone who lost a rank-and-file ballot.
PHON gain
Strelow’s primary is hard to predict and if it really puts a dent into Labor this may bed in play. Most likely Labor still holds, but its one to watch on Saturday.
Labor retain but I expect a big swing against them. Labor should still win primary and get a good chunk of preferences. If Labor don’t hold this they will barely have a member north of Brisbane.
Labor retain but expect a big swing against Labor. They should get a large chunk of preferences though and still win the primary. If Labor lose this, they will barely have a member up north.