ALP 7.6%
Incumbent MP
Yvette D’Ath, since 2014. Previously Federal Member for Petrie 2007-2013.
Geography
South-East Queensland. Redcliffe covers most of the Redcliffe peninsula in Moreton Bay local council area, specifically the suburbs of Kippa-ring, Redcliffe, Woody Point, Clontarf, Margate and Scarborough, as well as Moreton Island.
Redistribution
Redcliffe expanded very slightly, taking in a small part of Murrumba on its north-western boundary. This change did not involve any change in the seat’s margins.
History
The seat of Redcliffe has existed since the 1960 election. It was dominated by conservative parties until 1989, and has been dominated by the ALP ever since.
The seat was first won in 1960 by Jim Houghton. He was first elected as an independent and after a brief stint as a Liberal he joined the Country Party in 1963. He held the seat until his retirement in 1979.
The seat was won at the 1979 by-election by Liberal candidate Terry White. White was appointed to the ministry in 1980. He became the leader of a group of Liberal MPs critical of Joh Bjelke-Petersen and their own party’s closeness to the Nationals. In 1983 he led a Liberal rebellion which resulted in his election as Liberal leader and the dissolution of the coalition. In the ensuing election a majority of Liberals lost their seats and the Nationals won a majority in their own right.
White stepped down as Liberal leader following the disastrous 1983 election and held Redcliffe until his retirement in 1989.
Ray Hollis won Redcliffe for the ALP in 1989. He became Speaker of the Legislative Assembly in 1998 and retired in 2005. This triggered the 2005 Redcliffe by-election. At the ensuing by-election the ALP lost the seat to Liberal candidate Terry Rogers, who won with an 8.4% swing.
Rogers only held the seat for one year, and lost at the 2006 election to the ALP’s Lillian van Litsenburg. She retained the seat at the 2009 state election.
In 2012, van Litsenburg lost to the LNP’s Scott Driscoll. Driscoll had been president of the United Retail Federation, and his political career quickly came undone due to allegations he misled the Parliament over his business interests. He was suspended from the LNP in March, and resigned in November 2013 under the threat of expulsion.
The 2014 Redcliffe by-election was won by Labor candidate Yvette D’Ath, with a 17% swing back to Labor. D’Ath had previously held the federal seat covering Redcliffe, Petrie, from 2007 until her defeat at the 2013 federal election. D’Ath was re-elected in 2015, and serves as Attorney-General in the state Labor government.
Candidates
- James Bovill (Greens)
- Ian Philp (Independent)
- Graham Young (Independent)
- Kerri-Anne Dooley (Liberal National)
- Shayne Jarvis (Independent)
- Yvette D’Ath (Labor)
Assessment
Redcliffe is likely to stay in Labor hands.
2015 election result
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing |
| Yvette D’Ath | Labor | 14,399 | 47.2 | +16.5 |
| Kerri-Anne Dooley | Liberal National | 11,497 | 37.7 | -11.5 |
| Peter Johnson | Greens | 1,698 | 5.6 | -1.2 |
| Steven Griffith | Palmer United Party | 1,477 | 4.8 | +4.9 |
| Mark White | Family First | 710 | 2.3 | -2.2 |
| Shayne Jarvis | Independent | 701 | 2.3 | +2.3 |
| Informal | 620 | 2.0 |
2015 two-party-preferred result
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing |
| Yvette D’Ath | Labor | 16,602 | 57.6 | +17.7 |
| Kerri-Anne Dooley | Liberal National | 12,230 | 42.4 | -17.7 |
| Exhausted | 1,650 | 5.4 |
Booth breakdown
Booths in Redcliffe have been divided into three areas: north-east, north-west and south.
The Labor two-party-preferred vote ranged from 51% in the north-east to 63.4% in the north-west.
| Voter group | ALP 2PP % | Total votes | % of votes |
| South | 60.9 | 8,811 | 28.9 |
| North-West | 63.4 | 4,708 | 15.4 |
| North-East | 51.2 | 4,571 | 15.0 |
| Other votes | 55.3 | 12,392 | 40.7 |
Two-party-preferred votes in Redcliffe at the 2015 QLD state election
If there is no large swing to the LNP, I think this could still be an upset gain for them.
@BJA you think the LNP can win Redcliffe?
@FtB Yes I think they CAN, as to whether they WILL… it appears unlikely.
I think (and hope!) this election is going to come down to local campaigns, with seats falling across the pendulum potentially from both sides.
I’ll be honest, I’m a Labor man but if LNP win government, so be it, as long as One Nation has no say I’ll be happy.
I don’t see the LNP gaining this seat, mostly because Labor have a fairly high profile candidate and they will put a lot into the seat to ensure that she is re-elected.
Me too Ftb, I’ll be happy with MAJORITY govt.
Yes majority governments go well dont they …Not.
Campbell Newman – No
Anna Bligh – No
Peter Beattie – No
Joh when he had total majority – NO
Without an upper house its important to have some sort of voice for the people. The Majors simply will roll over and do as they are told as previously seen.
But am not pushing One Nation and upset at the limited choices voters in the urban centres will be offered.
MY prediction for REdcliffe t the moment is that Yvette D’ath will retain seat. She is a hard working local member . IN fact this is the slogan that she is using on her website so presumably also on NEwsletters.
As Attorney General she is in the news and unless the ABC turn on her after today’s raid she has had little but decent exposure.
She was well known in electorate and was only one of 10 ALP candidates to get more than 50% in postal vote where ALP normally do less well than LIbs. OThers to beat the 50% mark were CUrtins Pitt in Mulgrave
Leanne Linard in Nudgee
Bill bYrne in Rockhampton
Jackie Trad in South BRisbane
Anthony Lynham in Stafford
Sharon Fentiman in WAterford
Cameron DIckin Woodridge
Joanne MIller in Bundamba
Anastacia Palaszcuk in Inala
Jebnnifer HOweard in IPswich
Mark Ryan in MOrayfield
In postal voting a well known name is an asset.
Interestingly 6 of these 10 ALP candidates were women. Is this sexist voting by women?
ALP percentage generally for postal voting is between teens and early 40’s. .
THere is no doubt that LIberals campaign tactics are weighted more heavily to postal voting than other parties. Pat WEir in COndamine is advertising that he is only candidate distributing Postal Vote material. ECQ are tightening up on his and tightening procedures will favour those who do job well. LNP are therefore favoured by ECQ tightening up the Postal Vote procedures.
@ Tony I’d be more than happy with 3rd and 4th party options and independants, I’m just commenting on the choice available and One Nation would be a very, very bad idea.
Would like to know who and what those independent candidates are running for since I see that limited information is in the local rag. Who is aligned to One Nation is worrying frankly.
LNP gain
Big call Rjs, what’s your reasoning?
I see Labor’s vote dropping only a few % pts here, but still a relatively easy win for D’Ath.
Redcliffe is a real smoky for an LNP gain. The campaign is really strong!
Agree with BJA, similar to Bancroft and Murrumba, but I fear the margin is just too wide here. Labor retain.
Some of the correspondents on Tallyroom really do need to give more than opinion. Rj’s above is by far the worst. Wjhy? If you have something to share it. If it is nothing other than opinion please just keep the opinion to yourself. Please expand on why you think it will be an LNP gain? At the moment I do not agree with your opinion but as I have no inside knowledge on this my opinion is not worth the paper it is not printed on. For what it is worth LNP candidate is a serial candidate from at least two parties. Mind you Redcliffe was once represented effectively by a man who had stood for many parties and serial candidates seem to have been common on the Peninsula.
Yvette D’ath who ypou look back on previous election posts I have criticized has been a realatively hard working local memebrs and has a high mediua presence. FOr this reason I think it is unlikely she will be defeated.
Ben’s original comment about Redcliffe being dominated by Coalition till 1989 but the candidates have always been left wing liberals. Dooley presumably having previously been the FF candidate must be classified as a Right wing Liberal.
Signage in Redcliffe shows a significant spend by LNP but clearly ALP have grabbed the best spots. Whoever in ALP who is Corflute Coordinator deserves a pat on back. Signage on corners facing towards traffic and at height that is above the fence. LNP signage appears to have been plonked where someone will let them gat away with it.
Probably my final comment as I am heading to Pittwsworth to hand out a HTV that favors KAP but puts One Nation 2nd last My prediction ALP win , Both KAP members returned with Shane Knuth getting in by skin of teeth. Buderim reverting to LNP. One Nation doing worse than they think and far worse than the free advertising provided to them every time one of them chucked a hissy fit. Ashby -Hanson winning in Lockyer and possibly Thuringowa but no where else. ALP wins in Maiwar and South Brisbane but the threat in the future of Green eco-fascism is as big a the threat of social-fascism.
Full marks to Tally Room for being the most informative source of info about the campaign. Far better than Antony Green or what I saw of Poll Bludger. “The Australian” also deserves praise for its coverage far superior to “The Courier Mail” which seems to be reverting to the Free locals Papers coverage which is to just re-issue candidates Media Releases providing they advertise and ignore them if they choose not to advertise. Provincial Daily Newspapers virtually adding nothing to coverage by Statewide MEdia. Steve Austin on ABC as usual excellent unbiased coverage on air but clearly ABC editorial policy evident in selection of topics.
Andrew Jackson
apjackson@hotky.net.au
Labor retain.