Pumicestone – QLD 2017

Gone for Labor, no story here. Williams will be a one term wonder. Notoriously bad local MP.

Ben… This could be a very interesting election. You have not mentioned Eric Shields, an Independent running in the seat. Eric has a strong local following as the arch-enemy of Rick Williams, having been the first to “out” Williams as a serial bully in the community. The LNP are trying to surf on the wave created by Eric’s Facebook page “The Truth – Moreton Bay” with their “Flick Rick” campaign, but Eric is the one who has constantly hounded Williams and put in the hard yards to give him the flick!

Rick Williams is certainly an unpopular member and this is one I thought should fall but no other candidate seems to jump out at you either.
Lisa France is not re-contesting and if she had then there is no doubt she would have won but we may have to wait till all candidates are in before making a predication.
For me the LNP’s Simone Wilson should get over but is no certainty. With compulsory preferential voting being returned preferences will play a major role.

The LNP candidate will win, hands down. The sentiment against Williams is far too strong. PHON will surely not preference him either. This will see one of the biggest swings against Labor in the state.

No idea why Labor preselected him again.

PRP is clearly a stooge for the LNP. He or she has the mindset of the two-Party syndrome. What PRP is not hearing is that Simone Wilson is a lightweight and nothing will be achieved for the community if she is elected. People are smarter than the LNP give them credit.

Hi Bevan,

I’m a he and not a stooge for anyone, believe it not, people can have an opinion that’s different to yours. What I’m hearing is obviously different to your opinion. Rick is on the nose from scandal after scandal.

Just a quick look at the makeup of the electorate, it’ll now require a swing to Rick to hold the seat. I seriously doubt that’ll happen.

Interesting to note white vehicle on Pummicestone Rd active on the night that one candidates signs were replaced with another candidates. Spotted by a very experienced political operator.

Further details have been provided to alternate candidates. Hopefully this will lead to the jailing of the thief.

Andrew Jackson
apjackson@hotkey.net.au

Andrew, may I ask what party was attacked. We are finding the dirty tactics have already started and an alarming thing is multiple signs have been removed, painted over. And we also had 2 candidates homes broken into. I would like to think they were random but who knows anymore. Was it ignorant for me to hope this election would be clean and chosen on its merits.

Shaun

I have informed the candidate who i believe was attacked. However as COuncil by-laws prevent any electoral signage prior to 42 Days before Polling Day all candidates will naturally deny it was their signage.

You can verify some of my details by looking on PUmicestone Rd.

I heard on FM101.5 that “THe Prophet” was now predicting an LNP victory. I am not sure I agree. JUst the memory of ALP’s number 1 ASset in Queensland Campbell NEWman and his underlings is enough to scare most voters who think out of voting for this bunch. Best you can say about ALP is that they are less than effective BUT THEY ARE NOT NEWMAN.

I have grave reservations about Rick Williams but he is visible in local area. HIs caravan Office is a regular feature at Beachmere.

Pumicestone is my local seat and have been watching and listening on how this seat is progressing. I have been emailed for assistance by a couple of the candidates, viewed the saturated Bribie Road billboards with the LNP candidate ‘Simone Wilson’ and “masses of “flick Rick” bill boards and coreflutes. Pumicestone road now holds coreflutes of “One Nation’s” Greg Fahey and I even noticed coreflutes on government lamp posts so am not sure how he gets away with that. To predict a winner though is harder. Rick Williams looked shakey earlier and was the brunt of many opposition attacks. He is visual though and will not give up without a fight. Simone seems to be getting a lot of business support and if “Greg Fahey” gains a good vote then he may very well push Simone over the line. Pumicestone was one to watch at the 2015 election and will be won with a handfull of votes as what happened in 2015. My predication is an LNP Victory as long as she can stay away from Tim Nicolls (who is very much tied to Newman) .

PUmicestone has been made a safer ALP seat by including parts of Caboolture in it.

I disagree with Tony my gut feeling is that RIck WIlliams will retain this seat although he will possibly have a big bucket of excreta slung at him in the process. He has to convince the electorate that he is not misbehaving.

The seat and its predecessors have had some of the dirtiest campaigning outside of inner city AUstralia.
EXamples of this include

Voters enrolled on Bribie Island still side parks, See
http://www.amymcgrath.com.au/PDfs/Frauding_of_Elections.pdf

Accusations of Supposed desalination parks and Nuclear Power Plants being built on Island,
SIgns going missing on Pumicestone Rd and illegal signage,
Mysterious donations to candidates.
Even the tone of tallyroom cooments “LNP Stooge” “Flick RIck” are symptomatic of this aggressive campaigning.

In effect some participants in the electoral process on Bribie and hinterland know how to kick the boot in hard.

I therefore think RIck Williams is in for abumpy ride over next few months but he will just get back into Parliament.

Andrew Jackson
apjackson@hotkey.net.au

I’m a Labor man and if Labor win this seat, they’re winning government with a comfortable majority. So in other words – no chance in hell. I’ve already written this off, One Nation will poll very well and win it for LNP. Labor need to find wins elsewhere, forget this seat. Don’t even waste time.

While the local the local information of those above may outweigh this, I would like to point out that the 2015 result under compulsory preferencing (if exhausted ballots preferred ALP at the same rate seen from the ballots that flowed) would have been 53.5-46.5 to the ALP rather than 52.1-47.9.

On that evidence calling these new boundaries notionally Liberal might be misleading.

Palaszczuk just flicked Rick. Reopening Labor preselection!

Rick Williams will have a very uphill battle without ALP backing therefore I withdraw my comment of 28 September. However it is far too early to sort out what sort of impact Rick Williams de-endorsement will have. Seat could now go anywhere . MY gut feeling is that LNP will now pick up with ALP or Ashby-Hanson candidates preferences electing them. ALP will probably preference Rick Williams ahead of both Ashby-Hanson and LNP. After all he has voted to keep ALP in power for last 2 1/2 Years.

Very few Major Party candidates have the slightest idea of how hard it is to run an effective campaign from start to finish. Rick’s best hope would e to try and recruit local constituent’s such as Tony Z or BEbvan C. who have ran campaigns for DLP, and KAP but I think both would tell him to look elsewhere.

I recall a few federal elections ago reading in The Australian that ALP and LNP had teams of volunteers in their national campaign office of tens of thousands of individuals. Many of these were volunteers to Major Party but in reality being paid by a benefactor. At that time I was familiar with a minor party campaign consisting of Candidates, 1 full time staff member, a couple of paid temps and half a dozen volunteers and we were replicating what ALP and LNP needed 10000 volunteers to replicate.

Most candidates think How to Votes cards appear magically on election eve, forgetting that someone has burnt the midnight oil to meet ECQ deadlines.

Andrew Jackson
apjackson@hotkey.net.au

Andrew, why are you assuming independent Rick Williams will outpoll the endorsed ALP candidate? He’s got to be toast, surely.

Bennee

NO I am not assuming Rick Williams will out poll ALP BUT what I am assuming is that Ashby-Hanson will do a deal with Rick Williams and he fighting for his life will do a deal with them. The combined total of these will be higher than one of ALP / LNP and that both of these will favor Rick Williams over each other. This is precisely why it gets difficult.

ALP will suffer at least a 5% reduction in their votes and LNP will pick up some of this but not all. Rick Williams standing as an independent will increase the flow of votes from ALP but reduce the flow to LNP.

Palaszczuk decision to dump Rick Williams is politically naïve.
If she was going to dump him why not have managed the process so that Bribie Island school teacher (sorry do not know his name) stood against Williams for pre-selection and won ALP pre-selection and won. SHe should have had ALP in Pummicestone dump him. Making him look like a sore loser as it is he will be a martyr.

I think Rick Williams will do better than Ashby-Hanson. I think Ashby-Hanson voters will follow HTV if it is put in their hands That is a big IF based on performance of One Nation on Bribie Island pre-poll in last Federal election where only voters who got a One Nation HTV were those who walked up to candidate and effectively asked for one.

The inexperienced Lazarus Senate team did a much better job of delivering HTV to voters hands with both Lazarus and PHON candidates being out performed by Majors and parties with branches (KAP, FF, Greens and surprisingly ALA).

Rostering workers onto a booth is not rocket science but until you have done it with insufficient resources you have no idea of difficulty. LNP tactic of ovr manning booths is aimed not at getting HTV into voters hands but at preventing others HTV from being delivered. The tactic worked successfully on Morayfield pre-poll in 2015.

ECQ have warned parties that they intend to be more vigilant with the 6 Metre rule. Traditionally most Presiding Officers have left party workers to sort this out themselves and only intervened if there was trouble. Trouble results from inexperienced parties with inexperienced workers being driven out by mob delivery from Libs. Traditionally it was ALP workers who were most belligerent but the rise of bourgeoisie ALP at expense of Wharfies and builders laborers has resulted in ALP becoming more civilized with Libs becoming the belligerent ones.

IN carrying out Preference Negotiations I have always considered the likelihood of voters getting a HTV when weighing up options. Single Issue micro parties and independents with no branch structure rarely get HTV in voters hands. at council elections in Caboolture there were I think 10 Councilor and Mayoral candidates – All theoretically independent but only 4 handing out HTV cards. IN reality what this meant is that most of candidates had no support base beyond their families and employees.

Andrew Jackson
apjackson@hotkey.net.au

I believe I read today Labor have now selected a candidate for here, a Bribie school teacher I think? He seems like a good bloke but it won’t matter. Labor will be punished here for Rick Williams. One Nation will do well here and LNP should easily win it on prefs. Don’t waste time with this seat Labor.

Labor candidate for Pumicestone is Michael Hoogwaerts.

https://www.brisbanetimes.com.au/politics/queensland/labor-endorses-candidate-to-replace-rick-williams-20171030-p4ywpk.html

LNP gain

Scandal prone MP who damaged Labor before being sacked and improved preference flow to LNP (One Natio n instead of Palmer). Yep LNP gain.

LNP retain (I call it retain as it’s notionally theirs) but never the less an LNP win.