LNP 6.8%
Incumbent MP
Glen Elmes, since 2006.
Geography
Sunshine Coast. Noosa covers the northern Sunshinse Coast suburbs of Tewantin, Noosaville, Noosa Heads, Sunshine Beach, Castaways Beach, Marcus Beach and Peregian Beach, as well as Eumundi.
Redistribution
Noosa lost its southernmost area to Ninderry, including Eumundi, Doonan and Weyba Downs, and expanded west to take in Kin Kin, Cooran and Pomona from Gympie.
History
The seat of Noosa has existed since 1992. The seat was won by the Liberal Party from 1992 to 2001 and since 2006.
Bruce Davidson won the seat for the Liberal Party in 1992. Davidson served as a minister in the Borbidge government from 1996 to 1998.
In 2001, Davidson was defeated by ALP candidate Cate Molloy. Molloy was re-elected in 2004.
In 2006, Molloy came into conflict with her party when she came out against the government’s plans for a dam on the Mary River. She was disendorsed as the Labor candidate for Noosa, and resigned from the ALP to sit as an independent.
At the 2006 election, Molloy lost to the Liberal Party’s Glen Elmes. Elmes was re-elected as the LNP candidate in 2009, 2012 and 2015.
Candidates
- Sandy Bolton (Independent)
- Eve Whiteside (One Nation)
- Robin Bristow (Independent)
- Glen Elmes (Liberal National)
- Mark Denham (Labor)
- Phillip Jenkins (Greens)
- Aaron White (Independent)
Assessment
Noosa will probably remain in Liberal National hands, although the seat is one of the best in the state for the Greens, and they may well target the seat.
2015 election result
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing | Redist |
| Glen Elmes | Liberal National | 15,455 | 48.6 | -12.0 | 46.6 |
| Joe Shlegeris | Greens | 6,789 | 21.4 | +5.9 | 21.0 |
| Mark Denham | Labor | 6,506 | 20.5 | +8.0 | 21.0 |
| Ian Woods | Palmer United Party | 3,023 | 9.5 | +9.5 | 9.5 |
| Katter’s Australian Party | 1.8 | ||||
| Informal | 681 | 2.1 |
2015 two-party-preferred result
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Redist |
| Glen Elmes | Liberal National | 16,513 | 58.6 | -16.8 |
| Joe Shlegeris | Greens | 11,657 | 41.4 | +16.8 |
| Exhausted | 3,603 | 11.3 |
Booth breakdown
Booths in Noosa have been divided into four areas: central, east, north and west.
The Liberal National Party won a majority after preferences in the east (51.7%) and the centre (55%). The north and the west straddled the former Gympie-Noosa boundary, and Labor and the Greens between them polled 55.6% of the vote after preferences in the west and 56.4% in the north.
The Liberal National primary vote ranged from 30% in the north to 44.7% in the east. The Greens vote ranged from 20% in the centre to almost 30% in the east.
The Labor vote ranged from 18% in the east, to around 25% in the centre and west.
| Voter group | LNP prim % | GRN prim % | ALP prim % | LNP 2CP % | Total votes | % of votes |
| East | 44.7 | 29.7 | 18.4 | 51.7 | 5,929 | 20.3 |
| Central | 43.4 | 20.1 | 25.0 | 55.2 | 4,000 | 13.7 |
| West | 30.9 | 22.0 | 25.4 | 44.4 | 2,647 | 9.1 |
| North | 30.3 | 26.1 | 22.7 | 43.6 | 683 | 2.3 |
| Other votes | 51.5 | 17.6 | 20.3 | 62.5 | 15,947 | 54.6 |
Election results in Noosa at the 2015 QLD state election
Click on the ‘visible layers’ box to toggle between LNP vs Greens/Labor two-candidate-preferred votes, Liberal National primary votes, Greens primary votes and Labor primary votes.
I would expect this to remain in LNP hands although this could get rather intriguing come election night. The Green have only just lost their candidate here, who came second the last two elections. Although that being said I would still expect them to come second due to the emergence of ON.
One Nation should take a smallish chunk out of the LNP and Labor as well as transferring the PUP votes over, whilst not particularly touching the Greens.
Also if the LNP tries to march into ON policy territory, that could force some small l libs to switch straight over Labor into the Greens hands.
My guess would be 44% LNP, 23% Green, 20% Labor and 14% ON to result in 54-46 to the Libs
Very surprised that two months have passed and The Greens have still not chosen their replacement candidate for Noosa. They are very competitive in this seat under compulsory preferential. Labor will likely finish third and could prop them up to come close (if not pull off a suprise win).
Any idea what the delay is in selecting a replacement candidate?
Leaving it open for Larissa?
Greens have either given up on the seat or have a celebrity candidate. I’m inclined to think the former; their campaign launch focused extensively on their 3 target seats in Central Brisbane. Larissa Waters has said she isn’t running and is a thoroughly Brisbane based MP.
A shame as the election maths could work well for them in a few seats in the area.
The Greens did have a candidate here, but he resigned for personal reasons.
I don’t know why another preselection hasn’t occurred, though.
The greens preselection process is underway.
Independent Robin Bristow Is running under REASON. They seem to be putting in a bit of effort in the seat and could impact both the Green and LNP vote.
High profile independent here as well. Seems to be a race between Bolton and the LNP. With a big vote for other. Perhaps enough to cost the LNP the seat.
Word is in Noosa that Sandy is going to win. Strong preference flows from Labor and Greens. Talk of Elmes primary dropping almost 30 percent.
I’ve been hearing Labor talking up their chances here for months due to the local LNP member being on the nose.
I think the real winner is Bolton the independent rather than Labor. Local polling has her winning off preferences.
Independent gain.
Sandy Bolton gain.