IND vs LNP 15.5%
Incumbent MP
Peter Wellington, since 1998.
Geography
Sunshine Coast hinterlands. Nicklin covers Nambour, Yandina, Cooroy, Mapleton and Kenilworth.
Redistribution
Nicklin lost its western fringe to Glass House, and lost the territory east of the M1 to the new seat of Ninderry. Nicklin then gained its southern tip from Glass House, and a small area at its northern end from Gympie. Peter Wellington won the seat with a 14.9% margin in 2015 – the new estimated margin is based on the vote in those parts of Nicklin which have not been redistributed (approximately 83.5% of the total area).
History
The seat of Nicklin has existed since 1986. The seat was dominated by the National Party until 1998, and since then has been held by an independent.
The seat was first won in 1986 by Brian Austin of the National Party. Austin had held the inner-Brisbane seat of Wavell since 1977, and moved after his seat was abolished.
Austin had been elected as a Liberal at the 1977, 1980 and 1983 elections, but defected to the Nationals following the 1983 election.
Austin was forced to retire in 1989, and the seat was won by Liberal candidate Bob King. However the result was declared void, and the 1990 by-election was won by the National Party’s Neil Turner.
Turner served as Speaker of the Legislative Assembly from 1996 to 1998, and in 1998 lost his seat to independent Peter Wellington.
Wellington won in 1998 with Labor and One Nation preferences. His vote helped prop up a minority Labor government, although only for a few months until a by-election gave Peter Beattie’s government a slim majority.
Wellington won re-election in 2001, 2004, 2006, 2009 and 2012.
Wellington won Nicklin in 1998 with a 5.7% margin. This margin grew to a peak of 29.6% in 2004, but has shrunk since then. In 2009, Wellington held on by 16.3%, and this margin dropped to 4.9% in 2012. Wellington won with a margin of 14.9% in 2015.
Candidates
Sitting independent MP Peter Wellington is not running for re-election.
- Marty Hunt (Liberal National)
- Mick Tyrrell (Greens)
- Steven Ford (One Nation)
- Rachel Radic (Independent)
- Justin Raethel (Labor)
- Tony Moore (Independent)
- Jeffrey Hodges (Civil Liberties, Consumer Rights, No-Tolls)
Assessment
The LNP is likely to win this seat in the absence of Peter Wellington, but after almost two decades in his hands it is hard to predict how the seat will fall without him.
2015 election result
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing | Redist |
| Peter Wellington | Independent | 13,237 | 43.8 | +4.7 | 36.9 |
| Matt Trace | Liberal National | 9,379 | 31.0 | -4.8 | 33.1 |
| Justin Raethel | Labor | 4,941 | 16.3 | +8.5 | 17.5 |
| Julie Doolan | Greens | 2,673 | 8.8 | +1.8 | 9.6 |
| Palmer United Party | 2.5 | ||||
| Katter’s Australian Party | 0.2 | ||||
| Informal | 686 | 2.2 |
2015 two-party-preferred result
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing | Redist |
| Peter Wellington | Independent | 18,058 | 64.9 | +10.0 | 59.0 |
| Matt Trace | Liberal National | 9,770 | 35.1 | -10.0 | 41.0 |
| Exhausted | 2,402 | 7.9 |
Booth breakdown
Booths in Nicklin have been divided into four areas. Polling places in Nambour have been grouped together, with the remainder divided into north, south and west.
The primary vote for independent candidates (mostly Peter Wellington) ranged from 18% in the south to 49% in Nambour. Parts of the south were not contained in Wellington’s electorate in 2015.
The LNP primary vote ranged from 26.4% in Nambour to 40% in the south. The Labor vote ranged from 11.6% in the west to 20% in the south.
| Voter group | LNP prim % | ALP prim % | IND prim % | Total votes | % of votes |
| North | 29.6 | 16.9 | 41.0 | 5,506 | 19.9 |
| Nambour | 26.4 | 17.5 | 49.0 | 5,334 | 19.3 |
| South | 40.1 | 19.8 | 18.2 | 4,478 | 16.2 |
| West | 38.6 | 11.6 | 39.6 | 2,308 | 8.3 |
| Other votes | 34.3 | 18.2 | 36.1 | 10,077 | 36.4 |
Election results in Nicklin at the 2015 QLD state election
Click on the ‘visible layers’ box to toggle between independent primary votes, Liberal National primary votes, Labor primary votes and Greens primary votes.
Apparently Peter Wellington is privately backing the LNP’s Marty Hunt who has a considerable local profile in his role in his days with the YMCA. Good candidate selection from the LNP and I’d expect them to win in Wellington’s absence.
No chance of One Nation grabbing a chunk of Wellington’s vote and complucating things?
I doubt it. On 2016 senate numbers it was LNP 40.8% ALP 23.3% PHON 17.3% GRN 14.5% OTH 4.2%
Seems like Wellington voters might split pretty evenly across the political spectrum.
I think one nation definitely is in with a chance, this is a strong area and their candidate is running a strong campaign so could grab a chunk of wellingtons vote who himself was conservative and outspoken.
Peter Wellington is hardly conservative that is the stereotypical One Nation voter.
He has backed a LABOR minority govt TWICE and was highly outspoken about the Newman govt.
Nambour is in this electorate, that’s one nation to a tee.
Nambour is gentrifying… maybe not so much to a tee
The one nation vote should help get the LNP’s Marty Hunt over the line.
The micro party (Civil Liberties(No Tolls) may get a sprinkling of vote here as well but where their preferences might end up is anyone’s guess.
Amusingly the ONP candidate here is the father of high-profile feminist extremist Clementine Ford.
Apparently the apple didn’t so much fall far from the tree as fly away into orbit.
I travelled through Southern part of Nicklin and Western part of Buderim and it id clear LNP are campaigning heavily , Ashby-Hanson Party campaigning and ALP somewhere between fast asleep and half asleep. at moment. LNP and Ashby-Hanson Party Corflutes up and banner signs on buildings in King St Buderim and on Western side of highway. One lonely ALP corflute in border opf Buderim- Nicklin .
A shop assistant in a shop did not know that election was going on. Had seen Dickson up the street at weekend.
Not sure where Andrew Jackson was but the ALP are everywhere in every part of the electorate noone has seen LNP and one nation. I suspect that Andrew is talking about Buderim because it certainly isn’t the case in Nicklin. I think this is a cliffhanger and that it is too close to call. Given the subcontractors are going to campaign heavily against the LNP and ON who knows. I wouldn’t write off ALP yet
No sign of the ALP in Cooroy.
Same thing happened last time!
correction peter wellington has not backed the LNP candidate neither privately or publically but he is publically backing mick de brenni in Springwood and Labor in general. He is no friend of the LNP and certainly supports the subbies bill and the role the ALP have played in delivering that.
LNP gain
LNP gain easily.
LNP gain but don’t write off ONE NATION in an upset.