LNP 13.3%
Incumbent MP
Deb Frecklington, since 2012.
Geography
South-East Queensland. Nanango covers regional areas to the west of the Sunshine Coast. The seat covers parts of Dalby, Somerset, South Burnett and Toowoomba councils, covering the major centres of Kingaroy, Nanango, Kilcoy, Esk and Cherbourg.
Redistribution
Nanango shifted north, taking in the remainder of South Burnett council area and western parts of Gympie council area from Callide. This area covers Cherbourg, Wondai, Murgon, Goomeri and Kilkivan. Nanango lost an area to the north of Toowoomba to Condamine, including Hampton, Pechey, Crows Nest and Goombungee. Nanango also lost an area on its western edge to Callide. These changes increased the LNP margin from 13.2% to 13.3%.
History
The seat of Nanango first existed from 1912 to 1950. It was abolished in 1950 and replaced with Barambah. Barambah was abolished in 2001 and replaced with a new version of Nanango. Both seats were solidly Country/National until the 1998 election.
Joh Bjelke-Petersen was elected to the seat of Nanango in 1947, moving to Barambah in 1950. Bjelke-Petersen became a minister in 1963, and became Premier at the head of the Country/Liberal coalition government in 1968.
Bjelke-Petersen served as Premier for 19 years, until he stepped down in 1987. His resignation triggered the 1988 Barambah by-election.
At that by-election, the seat was won by the Citizens’ Electoral Council’s candidate, Trevor Perrett, who joined the National Party later that year.
Perrett was re-elected in 1989, 1992 and 1995, and served as a minister in the Borbidge coalition government from 1996 to 1998.
In 1998, Perrett was defeated by One Nation candidate Dorothy Pratt.
Pratt, like most One Nation MPs, quit the party in 1999 to sit as an independent. When Barambah was renamed Nanango in 2001, she was re-elected to that seat as an independent. She was again re-elected in 2004, 2006 and 2009.
Pratt retired at the 2012 election, and the seat was won by LNP candidate Deb Frecklington. Frecklington defeated former cricketer Carl Rackemann, running for Katter’s Australian Party, by a 9% margin after preferences. Independent candidate John Dalton came third, with the ALP relegated to fourth place.
Frecklington was re-elected in 2015.
Candidates
- John Harbison (Greens)
- Deb Frecklington (Liberal National)
- Douglas Grant (One Nation)
- Ben Rankin (Labor)
Assessment
Labor is no threat to the LNP in Nanango, but One Nation could stand a chance. One Nation won this seat in 1998, and has performed well in the area recently. One Nation outpolled Labor (after distributing minor preferences) in Nanango at the 2016 Senate election, and if One Nation does well statewide that could see them coming close to polling 30%, at which point preferences will be vital to deciding who wins.
2015 election result
Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing | Redist |
Deb Frecklington | Liberal National | 14,698 | 47.1 | +1.7 | 46.4 |
Liz Hollens-Riley | Labor | 6,397 | 20.5 | +10.0 | 20.5 |
Ray Hopper | Katter’s Australian Party | 4,827 | 15.5 | -10.9 | 11.7 |
Jason Ford | Palmer United Party | 3,269 | 10.5 | +10.5 | 14.3 |
Grant Newson | Greens | 1,170 | 3.7 | +0.1 | 3.7 |
Dean Love | Independent | 841 | 2.7 | +2.7 | 2.0 |
Others | 1.3 | ||||
Informal | 606 | 1.9 |
2015 two-party-preferred result
Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Redist |
Deb Frecklington | Liberal National | 16,491 | 63.2 | 63.3 |
Liz Hollens-Riley | Labor | 9,617 | 36.8 | 36.7 |
Exhausted | 5,094 | 16.3 |
Booth breakdown
Booths in Nanango have been divided into three areas: north, south-east and south-west.
The Liberal National Party’s primary vote ranged from 43% in the south-west to 49% in the north.
The Labor vote ranged from 16.5% in the north to 25% in the south-east.
Katter’s Australian party polled almost 15% in the south-west, and almost 18% in the south-east, but did not stand in most of the north.
The Palmer United Party vote ranged from 6.7% in the south-east to 25.5% in the north.
Voter group | LNP prim % | ALP prim % | KAP prim % | PUP prim % | Total votes | % of votes |
South-West | 43.1 | 21.7 | 14.8 | 13.6 | 8,740 | 27.7 |
South-East | 44.2 | 25.4 | 17.8 | 6.7 | 5,768 | 18.3 |
North | 49.0 | 16.5 | 0.7 | 25.5 | 4,936 | 15.7 |
Other votes | 48.8 | 19.0 | 11.1 | 13.9 | 12,065 | 38.3 |
Election results in Nanango at the 2015 QLD state election
Click on the ‘visible layers’ box to toggle between Liberal National primary votes, Labor primary votes, Katter’s Australian Party primary votes and Palmer United Party primary votes.
Nanango has always been a seat that swings towards minors or independents as you have stated in your address. Much of it has strong areas of bible belt so cant see the Ashby-Hanson team picking up too many. Dolly Pratt was a strong social conservative and fitted in well even after leaving One Nation mark one but the new look Rainbow Party that Pauline now represents wont go down well here. Deb Frecklington did well against a very rough ride dished out by Alan Jones almost on a daily basis during the 2015 election. If she survived that and without a viable minor contesting then I’d have my money on her
Tony, good analysis mate, always enjoy a good political analysis 🙂 I agree Frecklington holds this but I don’t overly agree with your assessment that Bible Belt types wouldn’t vote One Nation. One Nation is the closest thing we have to a Donald Trump – in the US the evangelical Christians swallowed their ethics and voted for Trump despite saying they wouldn’t and continue to support him strongly in US media. They supported a guy who’s committed several “sins”, their words not mine, I’m not really a religious guy. Pauline Hanson BTW is anti Same Sex Marriage. I’m a Labor man but I don’t overly mind Deb.
LNP retain but by a whisker.
Must not discount the fact that Deb Frecklington is Deputy leader of the LNP, and high up in the order for next leader. Nanago did very well when Joe Bjelkie-Peterson was Premier and that may help with influence some votes.