ALP 1.8%
Incumbent MP
Coralee O’Rourke, since 2015.
Geography
North Queensland. Mundingburra covers southern parts of Townsville, covering the suburbs of Heatley, Cranbrook, Aitkenvale, Mundingburra, Gulliver, Douglas, Annandale, Stuart, Roseneath, Wulguru, Idalia and parts of Vincent.
Redistribution
Mundingburra expanded to the east, taking in the south-eastern fringe of the Townsville area from Burdekin. These areas include Stuart, Roseneath, Wulguru and Idalia. At the western edge, Mundingburra lost the remainder of Kirwan and part of Vincent to Thuringowa. These changes cut the Labor margin from 2.8% to 1.8%.
History
The seat of Mundingburra has existed since 1992, and has been won by the ALP at every general election. The ALP’s hold on the seat was broken at the 1996 by-election, when it was won by the Liberal Party.
The seat was first won in 1992 by Ken Davies, who had previously won the seat of Townsville in 1989 before moving to the new seat of Mundingburra. He won re-election in 1995 by only 16 votes.
The result in Mundingburra ended up in court, and a by-election was called in 1996. The by-election was won by Liberal candidate Frank Tanti. This resulted in the ALP government losing its majority and the National-Liberal coalition forming a minority government.
At the 1998 election, Tanti lost the seat to the ALP’s Lindy Nelson-Carr. Nelson-Carr was re-elected in 2001, 2004, 2006 and 2009. She was appointed to the ministry in 2007.
Nelson-Carr retired in 2012, and the LNP’s David Crisafulli won the seat with a 16.8% swing. Crisafulli only lasted for one term, losing in 2015 to Labor’s Coralee O’Rourke with a 13% swing.
Candidates
- Dennis Easzon (Independent)
- Malcolm Charlwood (One Nation)
- Jenny Brown (Greens)
- Michael Abraham (Katter’s Australian Party)
- Geoff Virgo (Independent)
- Coralee O’Rourke (Labor)
- Matthew Derlagen (Liberal National)
- Alan Birrell (Independent)
Assessment
Mundingburra is very marginal, and Labor will need to perform well to retain the seat. O’Rourke should benefit from a personal vote which could help her hold on.
2015 election result
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing | Redist |
| David Crisafulli | Liberal National | 10,921 | 41.3 | -2.0 | 40.6 |
| Coralee O’Rourke | Labor | 10,596 | 40.1 | +14.4 | 37.0 |
| Clive Mensink | Palmer United Party | 2,874 | 10.9 | +10.9 | 10.0 |
| Jenny Brown | Greens | 2,040 | 7.7 | +2.7 | 6.7 |
| Katter’s Australian Party | 3.2 | ||||
| Others | 1.3 | ||||
| One Nation | 1.2 | ||||
| Informal | 606 | 2.2 |
2015 two-party-preferred result
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing | Redist |
| Coralee O’Rourke | Labor | 13,104 | 52.8 | +13.0 | 51.8 |
| David Crisafulli | Liberal National | 11,733 | 47.2 | -13.0 | 48.2 |
| Exhausted | 1,594 | 6.0 |
Booth breakdown
Booths in Mundingburra have been divided into three areas: east, north and west.
The ALP won a majority of the two-party-preferred vote in two out of the three areas, ranging from 50.4% in the east to 57.2% in the north. The LNP won 51% in the west.
The Palmer United Party vote ranged from 8.5% in the west to 11.7% in the north.
| Voter group | PUP prim % | ALP 2PP % | Total votes | % of votes |
| East | 8.9 | 50.4 | 7,270 | 24.8 |
| North | 11.7 | 57.2 | 7,101 | 24.2 |
| West | 8.5 | 48.8 | 6,129 | 20.9 |
| Other votes | 10.4 | 49.8 | 8,800 | 30.0 |
Election results in Mundingburra at the 2015 QLD state election
Click on the ‘visible layers’ box to toggle between two-party-preferred votes and Palmer United Party primary votes.
A poll from May this year has the LNP’s Matt Derlargen winning Mundingburra (just). This is believable though. Was one seat I was surprised to fall to Labor in 2015. Coralee O’Rourke having been a Minister for her first term will make it harder for her to have support locally, similar problem David Crisafulli had.
Galaxy Poll
LNP 30
ALP 29
PHON 20
KAP 12
Two Party Preferred:
LNP 52
ALP 48
If the ALP primary (and the unlisted Green vote of ~7?) got much lower it would be impossible for the pollster to meaningfully pick a 2PP to ask.
With PHON + KAP > ALP and them having a preference deal that will create unknown flow rates…
What is the margin of error
If labor loses this they’re not retaining gov, this is one the kind bellweather seats.
LNP gain
LNP gain.
LNP gain with a big primary swing against Labor, a smaller primary swing against LNP.
Big third party vote with One Nation possibly leapfrogging ALP off Katter preferences to get in the 2pp.
Regardless of who is in the 2pp, LNP gain off preferences.
If ONP leapfrog LNP off Katter preferences then this seat is still in play.
The ONP would need something like a 90% flow from the KAP, which doesn’t appear to be happening.
KAP on 2pp easy
I expect ALP scrutineers wouldn’t claim the seat unless they knew preference outcomes
If One Nation doesn’t jump LNP, then the ALP primary is still quite low. I can’t see how rlthis can be accurately called.