ALP 13.5%
Incumbent MP
Mark Ryan, since 2015. Previously member for Morayfield 2009-2012.
Geography
South-East Queensland. The seat of Morayfield lies in Moreton Bay local government area between Brisbane and Caboolture. It covers Morayfield and parts of Caboolture, Burpengary and Narangba.
Redistribution
Morayfield shifted north-east, losing Upper Caboolture to Glass House, losing Burpengary and Possum Rise to Kurwongbah, and gaining Caboolture and Bellmere from Pumicestone. These changes cut the Labor margin from 11.9% to 13.5%.
History
The seat of Morayfield was newly created at the 2009 election. It was won by Labor candidate Mark Ryan.
In 2012, Labor’s Mark Ryan was defeated by LNP candidate Darren Grimwade. Ryan returned in 2015, and won Morayfield back off Grimwade.
Candidates
- Jason Snow (Liberal National)
- Mark Ryan (Labor)
- Jamie Janulewicz (Independent)
- Gavin Behrens (Greens)
- Rodney Hansen (One Nation)
Assessment
Morayfield is a safe Labor seat.
2015 election result
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing | Redist |
| Mark Ryan | Labor | 14,952 | 50.6 | +13.9 | 49.3 |
| Darren Grimwade | Liberal National | 9,708 | 32.9 | -14.1 | 33.0 |
| Bill Rogan | Palmer United Party | 1,918 | 6.5 | +6.5 | 7.5 |
| Paul Costin | Greens | 1,309 | 4.4 | -1.2 | 5.3 |
| Jon Eaton | Family First | 890 | 3.0 | +3.0 | 2.0 |
| Stephen Beck | Independent | 572 | 1.9 | +1.9 | 1.2 |
| Andrew Tyrrell | Independent | 174 | 0.6 | +0.6 | 0.3 |
| Others | 1.4 | ||||
| Informal | 750 | 2.5 |
2015 two-party-preferred result
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing | Redist |
| Mark Ryan | Labor | 17,073 | 61.9 | +17.5 | 63.5 |
| Darren Grimwade | Liberal National | 10,502 | 38.1 | -17.5 | 36.5 |
| Exhausted | 1,948 | 6.6 |
Booth breakdown
Booths in Morayfield have been divided into three areas: central, north and south.
The ALP won a majority of the two-party-preferred vote in all three areas, ranging from 60.4% in the south to 67.6% in the centre.
| Voter group | ALP 2PP % | Total votes | % of votes |
| Central | 67.6 | 7,106 | 26.6 |
| North | 63.1 | 5,389 | 20.2 |
| South | 60.4 | 4,497 | 16.8 |
| Other votes | 56.7 | 9,719 | 36.4 |
Two-party-preferred votes in Morayfield at the 2015 QLD state election
I expect Labor to hold this with help of what will be a surprisingly high One Nation primary vote that will likely flow more to Labor then the LNP. Unfortunately I know quite a number of people in this seat who are voting One Nation and some were truly a surprise. Sad.
One Nation won Caboolture – on the back of Nats preferences – at the 1998 state election.
ON preferences also played a role in Labor’s defeat of Wyatt Roy last year.
This will be one to watch thanks to Rodney Hansen and PHON. It could even end up being a Labor v PHON contest. LNP preferences will flow strongly to PHON if they finish third. Hansen ran for Division 2 at the 2016 Council elections, so may have some local support. Mark Ryan is a very popular local MP though, so Labor should still be the favourites to win.
Rodney Hansen PHON is my pick to win. He needs only to pip the LNP to win on preferences. Very inexperienced LNP candidate. Ground support is high for the popular Hansen.
Really cant see any change here and Morayfield looks to be retained comfortably.
David Walsh… One Nation may like all other minors that contested Longman have preferenced against Wyatt Roy but cant see any change here. Lack of choices will be the key with a large portion of informal votes and not enough dislike against the current government to see any move away from Mark Ryan.
Mark is seen as a moderate and is popular and with no real competition should hold this one easily.
Tony Zegenhagen is correct about One Nation Preferences. One Nation Candidate in Longman spent more than a week at Bribie Pre-poll handing our HTV only to those who approached her. After a week of handing out the HTV she was not able to state where her preferences were going. I estimate that she was handing out 1 HTV for every 12 LNP were handing out, 1 HTV for every 10 HTV ALP handed out and 1 HTV for every 8 that KAP and other minor parties handed out. They were so rarely handed out that it took me 5 days to get hold of one.
Hansen is a better campaigner than Longman Candidate but I doubt if he has much of a support team. PHON voters are full of opinionated bigotory but not community active. Hansen’s stand at Lawnton Market frequently is manned by 1 person himself.
Mark Ryan is respected. He is not disliked by voters in area. In fact I have heard voters who voted for the Newman gang in 2012 state they regret he lost his seat even though they were glad to see the back of Anna BLigh.
My feeling is that Mark RYan will retain Morayfield.
THis are is not ready for another prgative of NEwman/ Nicholls
Hansen is unknown and if PH face was not on the HTV he would be getting less than 1% of vote.
HE does however appear to be campaigning at Markets and a few signs are appearing in fringe areas of electorate away from eyes of Council.
The local factors that defeated Roy were Unemployment, SSM and failures of NBN Project management deficiencies on Bribie. Unemployment will damage Ryan but no one in their right mind will think that Rodney Hansen will solve the problem and they know that electing LNP Candidate Jason Snow will make the problem worse.
Tony is correct about Preferences and Longman. IT was not ON Preferences that defeated Wyatt Roy it was the preferences of ALL minor parties . that refused to allocate preferences to Wyatt Roy. This is a warning to LNP that they can not put up candidates with anri-family policies and expect social conservatives to ignore this. Jason Snow has not upset social, conservatives in the way that Roy did with his Abortion comments in the Weekend Australian magazine article prior to the 2010 lection when Roy became only the 2nd Coalition candidate to be placed below the ALP on a DLP how to vote card. THE previous one was an advocate for tolerance of Soviet Naval Activity in the Indian Ocean. Unfortunately in 2010 other minor parties did not follow the lead of DLP. IN 2013 Longmans campaign One Nation hardly placed a HTV in 5% of voters hands and who knows how many of them followed the HTV. . The One Nation candidate spent most of week at Bribie Island Pre-poll and only gave HTV to those who walked up to her. The only worse example of party promotion that I have seen in 50 YRS campaigning were the PUP workers in Gympie who spent the whole day under a tree and were fast asleep for most of day.
I recall the absolute shock of Roy’s campaign manager when told by me that DLP were preferencing Jon Sullivan the ALP candidate ahead of Roy.
BY 2013 it was very easy to show why Roy should not be preferenced ahead of ALP. HIs voting record was his undoing. Roy was defeated by minor parties who would not tolerate Libs adopting GReen SOcial policies.
Just stopped off at Morayfield Pre poll. Got hold of ALP and LNP Statewide HTV but neither Greens nor Ashby-Hanson had the HTV for adjoining seat of Redcliffe. Independent not on site at 2PM. Shows the advantage of Major Parties turn up. PHON candidate did Rodney Hansen did not recognize me even though he spent nearly a weel with me at Federal Election. So far HTV has not revealed any surprises. ALP have decided predominantly on principle and LNP on self interest Ashby-Hanson places Independent 2nd, LNP third with ALP 4th and Greens last.
Who is (Independant) Jamie Janulewicz? I can find little-to-no info online, nothing politically relevant. Does anyone know?
ALP retain
ALP retain
Labor retain.