LNP 8.1%
Incumbent MP
Christian Rowan, since 2015.
Geography
Western Brisbane. Moggill covers the suburbs of Kenmore, Chapel Hill, Brookfield, Pullenvale, Bellbowrie, Karana Downs and Mount Crosby.
Redistribution
Moggill expanded slightly on its eastern edge to take in a small area near Chapel Hill from Indooroopilly. The seat lost its westernmost areas to Lockyer, but these areas don’t contain a voting population.
History
The seat of Moggill has existed since 1986, and in that time the seat has always been held by the Liberal Party, and now the LNP.
The seat was first won in 1986 by Liberal MP Bill Lickiss. He had served as Member for Mount Coot-tha since 1963. He retired at the 1989 election.
David Watson won Moggill in 1989. Watson had held the federal seat of Forde for the Liberal Party from 1984 to 1987. He served as a minister in the coalition government from 1996 to 1998, and served as leader of the Liberal Party from 1998 to 2001.
Watson retired in 2004, and was succeeded by Bruce Flegg.
Flegg led the Liberal Party into the 2006 election, and served as Liberal leader until December 2007. He won re-election for the Liberal National Party in 2009, and again in 2012. Flegg served briefly as a minister from March until November 2012. He was denied preselection for Moggill in 2014, and did not run for re-electon.
Moggill was won in 2015 by LNP candidate Christian Rowan.
Candidates
- Lawson McCane (Greens)
- Amy Rayward (Civil Liberties, Consumer Rights, No-Tolls)
- Evan Jones (Labor)
- Christian Rowan (Liberal National)
Assessment
Moggill is a relatively safe LNP seat.
2015 election result
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing | Redist |
| Christian Rowan | Liberal National | 15,104 | 50.2 | -13.1 | 50.2 |
| Louisa Pink | Labor | 7,600 | 25.2 | +9.6 | 25.3 |
| Charles Worringham | Greens | 4,758 | 15.8 | +2.0 | 15.8 |
| Barry Searle | Independent | 1,959 | 6.5 | +6.5 | 6.5 |
| Dion Van Zyl | Palmer United Party | 692 | 2.3 | +2.3 | 2.3 |
| Informal | 455 | 1.5 |
2015 two-party-preferred result
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing | Redist |
| Christian Rowan | Liberal National | 16,403 | 58.2 | -15.7 | 58.1 |
| Louisa Pink | Labor | 11,778 | 41.8 | +15.7 | 41.9 |
| Exhausted | 1,932 | 6.4 |
Booth breakdown
Booths in Moggill have been divided into three areas: east, north-west and south.
The LNP won a majority of the two-party-preferred vote in all three areas, ranging from 55% in the south to 66.5% in the north-west.
The Greens came third, with a vote ranging from 14.3% in the south to 17.7% in the east.
| Voter group | GRN prim % | LNP 2PP % | Total votes | % of votes |
| East | 17.7 | 57.7 | 9,799 | 32.3 |
| South | 14.3 | 55.1 | 9,013 | 29.7 |
| North-West | 16.7 | 66.5 | 2,399 | 7.9 |
| Other votes | 15.0 | 59.6 | 9,136 | 30.1 |
Election results in Moggill at the 2015 QLD state election
Click on the ‘visible layers’ box to toggle between two-party-preferred votes and Greens primary votes.
“Start the ball rolling by posting a comment on this article!”
Will do that just because this is my seat!
Safe LNP retain.
Yep, boring seat. This seat won’t ever effect who forms majorities in QLD parliament unless there is a massive increase in the Brisbane city Green vote and hung parliaments become the norm, but Moggill would be 6th to go green after Maiwar, South Brisbane, McConnell, Cooper, and Miller which certainly seems a long way off.
I doubt such an increase is ever going to happen but I would think Moggill would be ahead of Miller though.
No it’s not likely to happen, but it’s way more likely than the Brisbane city Labor vote intensifying so much compared to regional Labor vote that Moggill becomes a relevant seat that makes parties take it seriously. As it stands if Labor wins Moggill they would be winning 2 thirds of the seats in parliament anyway…
I wished we didn’t have an electoral system where swathes of voters “don’t matter” in this way.
I wish Antony Green or someone else would put out a calculator that allowed one to set regional swings. I think Labor will have a 2PP swing towards them in Brisbane but away from them outside it. Not sure what that would actually look like in terms of electoral outcomes.
This is the kind of seat where LNP would face a backlash for their PHON preference deal. I think the seat’s “in play” now for both Labor and Greens.
The Liberals held this seat in 2001, when they were wiped out in SE Queensland. Hard to picture them losing it in a much less hostile atmosphere in 2017.
True Mark Mulcair, although by a very tiny margin that would have almost certainly been a loss under full preferential.
Interestingly enough the Greens candidate in 2001 and 2004 was Lenore Taylor; same as the Guardian journalist?
No, not the same Lenore Taylor.
http://elections.nationalforum.com.au/queensland-election-2004/candidates/002219.html
BEnee
Your comment “I wished we didn’t have an electoral system where swathes of voters “don’t matter” in this way.” may well be true. The reason why they do not matter is that they vote for the Party and continue to vote for this party no matter how bad the candidate is. IT is a very good argument for voting for Middle of the road parties. Voting liberal or extreme liberal (LNP or Ashby-Hanson Party) or ALP or extreme ALP (Greens) is a sure way to ensure that your vote is of no consequence.
To “matter” requires the Major Parties to fear the voter. Swinging from moron to moron only encourages them to behave the way they do. They need to know that not only will they be defeated they will never be elected again .
Voters need to look at all candidates. IF none are fit to elect which would appear to be the case in Moggil it I time to get off your rear end join a party and play a role in ensuring that Moggil has a bright future.
John
I can remember doing this type of exercise for DLP in 1973 or 1974 with paper and ballpoint. Calculators at that stage were Rolling drum machines worth $3K plus, (MInimum wage at that time about $2.5K. Computers were something way up in the cloud. However the problem is that it is not just an X% Decrease in vote in city and a Y% adjustment in the country other factors come into it Especially compulsory preferential voting and changes in number of minor parties along with how minor parties allocate their preferences and will minor parties be able to man their booths. At last Federal election in Longman the result was influenced by one party’s printer selecting a delivery contractor who gave drivers instruction not to open gates when delivering HTV’s to candidate. Consequently HTV arrived very late. In fact half way through pre-poll. IN 1970’s NSW DLP won a seat because Liberal candidate failed to nominate on time. There are far too many variables for a calculator to work.
IF you really want this calculator it is not difficult to do on any spreadsheet. IT is just time consuming.
IN fact it is very easy to do using the Pendulum on this site. Just determine adjustment and move the seat accordingly. This will not tell you the whole picture but it will tell you the composition of the Parliament.
LNP retain.