ALP 3.8%
Incumbent MP
Jim Pearce, since 2015.
Geography
North Queensland. Mirani covers regional parts of Queensland from the southern edge of Mackay to the outskirts of Rockhampton. The seat covers parts of Isaac, Mackay and Rockhampton local government areas, and the towns of Mount Morgan, Dysart and Middlemount.
Redistribution
Mirani underwent small changes, losing a small area near Mackay and gaining an area north of Rockhampton from Keppel. These changes cut the ALP margin from 4.8% to 3.8%.
History
The seat of Mirani has existed since 1912. Apart from the period 1935-1947, the seat was held by MPs who belonged to the Country Party, National Party and Liberal National Party until 2015, when Labor won the seat.
Jim Randell held the seat for the National Party from 1980 until 1994. His resignation triggered the 1994 Mirani by-election.
Ted Malone won the 1994 by-election for the National Party. He joined the merged Liberal National Party in 2008. Malone was elected to his first full term in 1995 by a solid 59% margin, before dropping to a slim 53-54% in 1998 and 2001.
Malone increased his margin to 60.6% in 2004, but lost support in 2006.
The most recent redistribution in 2009 favoured Labor, and Mirani became a notional Labor seat. Malone held on by a slim margin of 50.6% in 2009, and then gained a swing of over 10% in 2012. While Malone had served as a shadow minister before the 2012 election, he moved to the backbench when the LNP won power in 2012, before becoming an Assistant Minister in late 2012.
Malone retired at the 2015 election, and Labor’s Jim Pearce won the seat with a 16% swing.
Candidates
- Kerry Latter (Liberal National)
- Stephen Andrew (One Nation)
- Jim Pearce (Labor)
- Christine Carlisle (Greens)
Assessment
Mirani is a very marginal Labor seat. Pearce should benefit from a personal vote not previously available to Labor, but Mirani has a long history of being held by the LNP and they are likely to be competitive. There’s also potential for One Nation here.
2015 election result
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing | Redist |
| Jim Pearce | Labor | 12,919 | 41.9 | +13.2 | 41.2 |
| John Kerslake | Liberal National | 11,505 | 37.3 | -9.3 | 38.0 |
| Michael Hall | Palmer United Party | 5,146 | 16.7 | +16.7 | 16.5 |
| Trisha Brindley | Greens | 1,268 | 4.1 | +0.8 | 4.1 |
| Others | 0.1 | ||||
| Informal | 633 | 2.0 |
2015 two-party-preferred result
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing | Redist |
| Jim Pearce | Labor | 15,206 | 54.8 | +16.0 | 53.8 |
| John Kerslake | Liberal National | 12,534 | 45.2 | -16.0 | 46.2 |
| Exhausted | 3,098 | 10.0 |
Booth breakdown
Booths in Mirani have been divided into three areas. Polling places on the outskirts of the Mackay area have been grouped, and the remainder were split into north and south.
The ALP won a majority of the two-party-preferred vote in all three areas, ranging from 52.4% in Mackay to 59% in the south.
The Palmer United Party vote ranged from 15.1% in the south to 18.5% in the north.
| Voter group | PUP prim % | ALP 2PP % | Total votes | % of votes |
| North | 18.5 | 55.2 | 9,100 | 33.4 |
| Mackay | 15.3 | 52.4 | 4,123 | 15.1 |
| South | 15.1 | 59.1 | 3,670 | 13.5 |
| Other votes | 15.8 | 51.9 | 10,345 | 38.0 |
Election results in Mirani at the 2015 QLD state election
Click on the ‘visible layers’ box to toggle between two-party-preferred votes and Palmer United Party primary votes.
Pearce’s personal vote is pretty much built in here. He was the member for Broadsound and Fitzroy for 20 years til 2009 (when Fitzroy was abolished, which made Mirani marginal). He didn’t run that year, but did in 2012 (got thumped by less than most of his colleagues), then came back big time in 2015.
For as long as he stays on Labor have probably got this, but it won’t be a safe seat. Kinda like Collie-Preston in WA, it’s a mashup of bulletproof Labor mining towns with safe Nat farming towns and some suburbia.
Considering how many seats got renamed at the last redistribution, I’m surprised this one stayed the same. Mirani is a little town at one end of the electorate… not much of a namesake these days.
This would have to have One Nation written all over it surely?
Based on what? One Nation got 15.6% of the Senate vote in Capricornia last year. Whilst good, that’s not going to win them a single member seat. Even at their high water mark at the 1998 state election, they didn’t come close to winning Mirani or Fitzroy.
I’m not suggesting they’ll win the seat but I’m thinking perhaps their preferences will be a lot more important here then they may be in some other seats? I feel like One Nation demographics have changed since 98, seems to be blue collar working class, industry, mining types now, pretty much every place where the ADANI mine is a topic of discussion. As I’ve said on other posts though, hope I’m wrong and happy to hear others thoughts. I don’t want any One Nation MP’s in the house.
Pearce is a strong local MP, his record is impressive considering how fluid the electoral boundaries have been in this part of Queensland.
IIRC, Pearce has a bit of an outspoken, maverick streak to him. That would help blunt any potential One Nation advance in this seat.
The Green vote could rise here due to the adani issues. Would depend on their preferences however
@YI I doubt it re Greens vote, the people in these electorates mostly want Adani, it’s those who don’t live in regional Qld making the most noise. Those PUP votes from last election could decide this, I fear most will go to PHON.
Yeah good point, One Nation will probs get 25% here? Perhaps there preferences could deliver seat to the LNP.
LNP gain
LNP Mirani candidate is the local Canegrowers boss. As a result alot of them will stick with the LNP rather than go to One Nation. I expect One Nation to hurt the Labor vote here.
LNP gain.
Interesting that you seem to be predicting a lot of LNP gains/large swings despite the 2PP vote according to polling basically being the same. Do you think that they’re underestimating the LNP vote (polling) or do you reckon the swing will be uneven?
My expectation is that the One Nation primary and preference flows are not being estimated well in a fee ways. I also think in this area and Townsville Labor’s primary will drop.
But in other areas (Bundaberg, Maryborough, Whitsunday) I think Labor’s vote is holding up well and people over estimate how One Nation preferences benefit the LNP.
In south east corner seats I think its a bit of both. In areas One Nation run I think the LNP primary will suffer, but where they don’t I expect them to have a decent swing to them from Labor. Ive got several LNP seats going to Labor.
LNP gain. Shame, I really like Jim.
ftb….. most likely alp retain…….. he has represented areas in this seat for best part of 20 years