ALP 1.1%
Incumbent MP
Bruce Saunders, since 2015.
Geography
Central Queensland. Maryborough covers most of Fraser Coast Regional Council, as well as a small part of Gympie LGA. A majority of the population lives in the Maryborough urban area.
Redistribution
Maryborough shifted north, gaining coastal areas from Hervey Bay and losing rural areas on its southern border to Gympie. These changes cut the Labor margin from 1.65% to 1%.
History
The seat of Maryborough has existed continuously since 1865. The seat was dominated by the ALP for most of the twentieth century but has been dominated by independents from the late 1990s until 2012.
The ALP had held Maryborough continuously from 1932 until 1971, when the seat was lost to the Liberal Party’s Gilbert Alison.
Alison held the seat until his defeat in 1977 by the ALP’s Brendan Hanson.
Hansen served two terms before losing to Alison, who was now running in 1983 as a National Party candidate.
Alison held the seat for two more terms, serving briefly as a minister in the Cooper government in late 1989 before losing his seat in 1989.
The seat was held from 1989 to 1998 by the ALP’s Bob Dollin.
Dollin lost in 1998 to One Nation’s John Kingston. Kingston quit One Nation in 1999 but managed to win re-election in 2001 as an independent. He retired in 2003 citing poor health.
The 2003 Maryborough by-election was won by another independent candidate, Chris Foley. Foley was re-elected in 2004, 2006 and 2009.
In 2012, Foley was defeated by LNP candidate Anne Maddern. Maddern lost to Labor’s Bruce Saunders in 2015.
Candidates
- Roger Currie (Independent)
- Richard Kingston (Liberal National)
- James Hansen (One Nation)
- Bruce Saunders (Labor)
- Craig Armstrong (Greens)
Assessment
Maryborough is a very close seat. One Nation polled over 25% in this seat in last year’s federal election, so the race could end up as a three-cornered contest.
2015 election result
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing | Redist |
| Anne Maddern | Liberal National | 9,702 | 30.6 | -5.2 | 31.8 |
| Bruce Saunders | Labor | 8,031 | 25.3 | +13.5 | 25.8 |
| Chris Foley | Independent | 6,749 | 21.3 | -8.9 | 20.1 |
| Stephen Anderson | Palmer United Party | 3,931 | 12.4 | +12.4 | 12.0 |
| Damian Huxham | One Nation | 2,217 | 7.0 | +7.0 | 6.5 |
| Katherine Webb | Greens | 813 | 2.6 | -0.2 | 2.5 |
| Russell Wattie | Independent | 309 | 1.0 | +1.0 | 0.9 |
| Others | 0.3 | ||||
| Family First | 0.2 | ||||
| Informal | 630 | 1.9 |
2015 two-party-preferred result
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing | Redist |
| Bruce Saunders | Labor | 12,723 | 51.7 | +2.0 | 51.1 |
| Anne Maddern | Liberal National | 11,910 | 48.3 | -2.0 | 48.9 |
| Exhausted | 7,119 | 22.4 |
Booth breakdown
Booths in Maryborough have been divided into three parts. A majority of ordinary votes were cast in the Maryborough urban area, and these booths have been grouped together. The remainder was split between booths to the north of Maryborough and those to the south.
Labor won a sizeable 56% majority of the two-party-preferred vote in the Maryborough area, while the LNP won a 51% majority in the south and a 54% majority in the north.
Former independent MP Chris Foley ran in third place. The primary vote for independent candidates (most of those votes for Foley) ranged from 15% in the north to 26.5% in Maryborough.
| Voter group | IND prim % | ALP 2PP % | Total votes | % of votes |
| Maryborough | 26.5 | 56.4 | 10,561 | 34.6 |
| North | 15.0 | 46.3 | 6,530 | 21.4 |
| South | 24.9 | 49.0 | 1,370 | 4.5 |
| Other votes | 19.5 | 49.2 | 12,034 | 39.5 |
Election results in Maryborough at the 2015 QLD state election
Click on the ‘visible layers’ box to toggle between two-party-preferred votes and independent primary votes.
Maryborough was surely the most surprising Labor gain at the 2015 election. It was expected to be an LNP-Independent contest.
The last Labor member for Maryborough lost the seat to One Nation. Will history repeat?
THe Ashby -Hanson lead ONe Nation is a bubble that has burst. 4 Corners revealed why ONe Nation supporters are deserting the party in droves.
THey may get booth workers on the day but once they join the party and find that there role is just to get votes to get money for the ruling clique they desert within months. LAst Ashby -Hanson want is party members who think they should have a say. Ask the workers from the last election will they be manning a booth for ONe nation this time and great majority will say no.
There has been a lot of criticism of GReen’s vetting of candidates but One Nations process makes Greens look professional. SO chances are nominated One Nation Candidate at the moment will have resigned from the party or be expelled before the election.
Most One Nation voters detest the Ashby-Hanson shenanigans. IN any case if One Nation had any organisational skill they would have let Tallyroom know who their candidate is. Probably still can not get into computer after losing the passwords when last Secretary departed.
Maryborough has an airstrip for the plane with no owner can land with her ladyship on board.
Between Foley (assuming he stays retired) and the PUP guy, that’s over 30% of the vote looking for a new home right there. Labor and LNP could easily get a 10% swing (each) without it meaning anything.
Typo alert: whoever Russell Wattie was, I’m pretty sure he didn’t get a 29% swing against him. If he did, that’d be a pretty embarrassing way to come last.
don’t think Brendan Hansen lost in 1983…. he was former member for wide bay
Yeah, Brendan Hansen retired in 1983.
This was quite an interesting result last time around. This should have never really been a gain for Labor, but with the conservative vote being split between four candidates they managed to sneak through. The changes to compulsory preferential voting will significantly hinder Labor and I wouldn’t be surprised if this was an LNP – PHON contest.
The One Nation Candidate here is Councillor James Hansen. I have no idea who Cam Young is.
He’s the ON candidate for Maroochydore. (The Maroochydore page also has Hansen listed there.)
Yeah they’ve been transposed. Will be fixed soon.
Considering how well the PHON candidate performs in his division at the 2016 Council elections, coupled with the significant history this seat has looking for alternatives to the major parties, I’d suggest this will definitely fall PHON’s way. I would be surprised if this is a PHON vs LNP contest either.
It won’t be a PHON vs LNP two party preferred contest Bruce Saunders is a very popular hardworking MP. I actually tend to think he will be more favored to hold his seat because of the Sophomore Surge. LNP haven’t announced their candidate yet, hardly signs that they think there in with a red hot chance in this seat.
Also Labor held this seat for three terms between 89 – 98. Chris Foley vote (21.3%) wasn’t all conservative vote in 2015 election there would have been swinging voters and some Labor vote in it as well. Vote that is certainly up for grabs for the incumbent.
Research also show PUP vote generally split 50-50 on preferences at the last state election. Once again you have to be careful make sweeping generalizations suggesting all that vote was conservative.
This seat will be an interesting one to watch.
Actually PUP vote in the Wide Bay flower 70-80% to Labor last time.
As Watchman noted where the Foley vote goes will decide this seat. How much to Labor? How much to Hanson? How much to the LNP?
PUP will basically all jump on One Nation.
It is amazing that in a 1.1 percent marginal that the LNP can’t find a candidate. The Labor member only had 25 percent first preference and is vulnerable. This in a seat which was federally represented by Warren Truss.
Where is their next generation (or two generations) of LNP talent? Did Warren bother to keep bringing in new members? Did he try to mentor new candidated? It tarnishes his legacy and looks like he didn’t care about the future of his party.
I think this is One Nation’s BEST chance for seat, as opposed to Lockyer.
Having the last name Hanson and the lack of LNP candidate certainly helps. I have this in the first group with Lockyer, Burdekin and Thuringowa (if they get a candidate)
The LNP have finally named their candidate in Maryborough.
Vice-President of the Maryborough Chamber of Commerce, Richard Kingston. Is he too late to the table to have a chance?
https://www.frasercoastchronicle.com.au/news/state-opposition-announces-new-candidate-for-mboro/3254724/
@PRP unfortunately I think this seat is One Nation’s to loe. If PHON don’t win this, they’re hardly winning any.
@Feel the Bern indeed, this would be the only seat where I think they would start as favourites, though Bundaberg is probably 50/50.
Agree @Peterjk
as the independent , i observed more red shirts than a chairman mao lingerie party, at last nights Howard forum, James copped a few disgruntled voters , not many orange shirts at all , some punters told me that they are not impressed with James council performance at all and have already given me 2 and Bruce 1.
James copped a few sprays last night at the Maryborough chamber of commerce forum, i counted 2 Pauline tee shirts and 27 labor tee shirts.Bruce of course received a standing ovation.
Sounds like you’re a dummy candidate preferencing Labor?
sounds like i’m a independent telling it like it is because that’s what happened,come along to Tiaro next week and see for yourself .
i am running on reforming the veg management act to stop all this misinformation about farmers destroying the GBR , and Bruce is running on dragging out a baseball bat of legislation to smack them up once again for green prefs, have a look at this page, the only dummies are the ones that Pauline spits out.
https://www.facebook.com/Rogercurrieindependent4maryborough-1667873586590211/
Ok, just in your previous posts you are spending more time talking up Bruce than talking yourself up…. weird.
I agree btw, farmers demonised for run off but what about urban, surburban and industrialrun off?
exactly , when you stack the audience , and you tell them what they want to hear , you get applause. Probably similar to when that fat little north korean does his stand up routines for the plebs, ‘you clap, me funny leader or else’. Urban and industrial is being managed with the Environmental Protection Policy for water , where we have to ensure that storm water is treated to meet the guidelines for pollution entering the sandy straits and hervey bay and treated poo water can no longer be released. Labor wants to introduce regulation for cane farms and that is being driven by WWF for green prefs. i much prefer to get the canies to volunteer with engagement and encouragement as opposed to ,’we will prosecute you’, the GBR is not being screwed by farmers, they are political pawns, sea level rise and climate change dictates the life an deaths of coral reefs, not farmers.
If people vote according to what candidates have actually done for the electorate, Bruce Saunders would be one of the first elected in the State. He’s done more for Maryborough in three years than the LNP and Independents did in the previous fifteen. This town has been sadly neglected and Bruce has been doing his utmost to turn it around.
Additionally, the neglected smaller towns of Howard and Burrum Heads as well as the seat’s segment of Hervey Bay have also received much needed help.
LNP gain
Actually previous LNP member went ok. Got two major wards of the hospital to be modernised and renovated for starters. But can’t argue that Bruce has really done well as a local member in terms of funding for the seat. Plus he is high profile and well known.
Still his starting point is very low and he needs a significant primary increase. Maybe he has done enough, but I am calling this a One Nation gain off good LNP preferences
I believe
I’m still not writing off Labor here after the trains announcement but I’ll stick with my original PHOn tip in a close one.