LNP 3.0%
Incumbent MP
- Scott Emerson (LNP), member for Indooroopilly since 2009.
- Steven Miles (ALP), member for Mount Coot-tha since 2012.
Geography
Inner west of Brisbane. Maiwar covers suburbs on the north side of the Brisbane river ot the south-west of the Brisbane city centre, including Indooroopilly, St Lucia, Toowong and Auchenflower.
Redistribution
Maiwar is an amalgamation of the electorates of Indooroopilly and Mount Coot-tha. Approximately 55% of the seat’s population comes from Indooroopilly, with the remainder previously contained in Mount Coot-tha.
The seat of Indooroopilly previously crossed the Brisbane River – those areas on the north side of the river were all moved into Maiwar, including the suburbs of Indooroopilly and St Lucia.
The southern half of Mount Coot-tha was moved into Maiwar, including the suburbs of Auchenflower and Toowong.
Indooroopilly was won in 2012 by the LNP by a 6.7% margin, while Mount Coot-tha was won by a Labor margin of 2.6%. The new seat has a notional margin of 3.0% for the LNP.
History – Indooroopilly
The seat of Indooroopilly has existed since 1992. The seat was held by the Liberal Party from 1992 to 2001, then by the ALP from 2001 to 2008. In 2008 the sitting member joined the Greens, and in 2009 he lost to the LNP, who retained the seat in 2012 and 2015.
The seat was first won in 1992 by former Liberal leader Denver Beanland. He had held the seat of Toowong since 1986, and had been leader of the Liberal Party until 1991.
Beanland served as Attorney-General from 1996 to 1998, and lost his seat in 2001.
Ronan Lee won Indooroopilly for the ALP in 2001. He was re-elected in 2004 and 2006, and was appointed as a Parliamentary Secretary after the 2006 election.
In 2008, Lee resigned from the ALP and joined the Greens. He contested Indooroopilly for the Greens in 2009. The seat was the best result for the Greens in the state, but Lee’s vote was much lower than he had won in past elections as the Labor candidate. Lee narrowly missed out on coming in the top two, and the seat was won by the LNP’s Scott Emerson.
Scott Emerson was re-elected in 2012 and 2015.
History – Mount Coot-tha
Mount Coot-tha existed from 1950 until this election. The seat was continuously held by the Liberal Party from 1950 to 1989, and was then held by Labor from 1989 until 2012. The seat changed hands at both of the last two elections.
Kenneth Morris won Mount Coot-tha for the Liberal Party in 1950. He had held the seat of Enoggera since 1944, before moving to the new seat. He was elected as Liberal Party leader in 1954. He served as Deputy Premier from 1957 to 1962. In 1963 he resigned from Mount Coot-tha and won a special election to the Senate. He served as a Senator until his retirement in 1967.
Mount Coot-tha was won in 1963 by Bill Lickiss, also of the Liberal Party. He held the seat until 1986, when he moved to the new safe Liberal seat of Moggill. He held Moggill for one term before retiring in 1989.
Lyle Schuntner was elected as Liberal MP for Mount Coot-tha in 1986, but lost his seat in 1989 to Labor candidate Wendy Edmond.
Edmond went on to retain the seat relatively comfortably. The seat became a primary target for the Queensland Greens, with Drew Hutton polling strongly at the 1995 election. Edmond became a minister in the Beattie government in 1998, and retired in 2004.
In 2004 the Greens mounted another high-profile challenge in the seat, running former journalist Andrew Carroll, but the seat was won by Labor candidate Andrew Fraser.
Fraser joined the ministry in the Beattie government in 2006. When Anna Bligh became Premier in 2007, she appointed Fraser as Treasurer. He also became Deputy Premier in September 2011.
In 2012, Fraser lost his seat to LNP candidate Saxon Rice. Rice lost in 2015 to Labor candidate Steven Miles.
Candidates
Labor member for Mount Coot-tha, Steven Miles, will be running for the seat of Murrumba.
- Michael Berkman (Greens)
- Anita Diamond (Independent)
- Ali King (Labor)
- Scott Emerson (Liberal National)
Assessment
Maiwar is a marginal LNP seat. A swing of less than 3% from the LNP to Labor would see Labor win the seat. It’s also worth noting that Maiwar is one of the strongest Greens seats in the state – the Greens have previously targetted both of the predecessor electorates. It is entirely possible that the Greens could overtake Labor, and challenge the LNP for their hold on the seat, particularly with the incumbent Labor MP declining to contest the seat.
There are effectively two different contests: Labor and Greens will be competing to come second on the primary vote, and the winner of this contest will hope for a strong preference flow to challenge the sitting Liberal National MP.
This is a seat where the strength of preference flows may well determine the result. The voting system in Queensland has changed to compulsory preferential voting since the last election: this will likely lead to stronger flows between Labor and the Greens, and could be enough to change the seat’s result if it is close.
2015 election result – Indooroopilly
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing | Redist |
| Scott Emerson | Liberal National | 13,502 | 51.0 | -9.9 | 47.6 |
| Chris Horacek | Labor | 7,260 | 27.4 | +8.7 | 29.3 |
| Jake Schoermer | Greens | 4,933 | 18.6 | +0.1 | 20.4 |
| Anita Diamond | Independent | 490 | 1.9 | +1.9 | 1.1 |
| Paul Swan | Independent | 165 | 0.6 | +0.6 | 0.4 |
| Ben Freney | Independent | 134 | 0.5 | +0.5 | 0.3 |
| Others | 1.0 | ||||
| Informal | 364 | 1.4 |
2015 two-party-preferred result – Indooroopilly
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing | Redist |
| Scott Emerson | Liberal National | 14,111 | 56.7 | -12.8 | 53.0 |
| Chris Horacek | Labor | 10,763 | 43.3 | +12.8 | 47.0 |
| Exhausted | 1,610 | 6.1 |
2015 election result – Mount Coot-tha
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing |
| Saxon Rice | Liberal National | 11,814 | 43.0 | -4.8 |
| Steven Miles | Labor | 8,966 | 32.6 | +4.0 |
| Omar Ameer | Greens | 6,095 | 22.2 | +1.5 |
| Charles Mcalister | Independent | 611 | 2.2 | +2.2 |
| Informal | 349 | 1.3 |
2015 two-party-preferred result – Mount Coot-tha
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing |
| Steven Miles | Labor | 13,920 | 52.6 | +8.0 |
| Saxon Rice | Liberal National | 12,550 | 47.4 | -8.0 |
| Exhausted | 1,016 | 3.7 |
Booth breakdown
Booths in Maiwar have been divided into three areas: central, north and south.
The LNP topped the primary vote in all three areas, ranging from 45% in the centre to 52% in the south.
The Labor primary vote ranged from 26% in the south to 33% in the north. The Greens vote ranged from 19% in the south to 22% in the centre.
Each of the three main parties had their highest vote in a different area: the LNP in the south, the Greens in the centre, and Labor in the north.
| Voter group | LNP prim % | ALP prim % | GRN prim % | Total votes | % of votes |
| Central | 45.1 | 29.8 | 22.3 | 8,019 | 26.4 |
| South | 52.0 | 25.9 | 19.0 | 7,107 | 23.4 |
| North | 45.5 | 32.6 | 20.0 | 4,478 | 14.8 |
| Other votes | 47.4 | 29.7 | 20.0 | 10,736 | 35.4 |
Election results in Maiwar at the 2015 QLD state election
Click on the ‘visible layers’ box to toggle between two-party-preferred votes, Liberal National primary votes, Labor primary votes and Greens primary votes.
For the Greens to have a shot of taking this seat, the LNP primary vote will probably need to drop below 40%. A strong Greens campaign is probably more likely to swing Labor voters than Liberal voters, and a likely general statewide swing to the LNP is likely to blunt any impact against the LNP in this seat. Plus general recent high profile blunders by the Greens will still be fresh in people’s minds when they go to vote.
Like South Brisbane, the Greens perform well and they will probably continue to perform well, but they and Labor are just too far behind for one of them to overtake the LNP on the other’s preferences.
Compare to Victorian state seat of Prahran though. The margin going into the 2014 election was 4.7 to Liberals, the sitting member ended up primarying 44.8 (-2.8) but LOSING to the Greens 24.8 (+5.0) who didn’t exclude below Labor for the first time in the seats history.
The Greens are by no means running dead in Maiwar.
As the Prahran example shows, if the LNP primary vote drops just a small amount to around 45%, the Greens are in with a strong chance if they can poll above Labor.
Whilst there may not be as big a swing against the LNP in other parts of the state, in a ‘leafy green liberal’ seat like Maiwar, the LNP is more vulnerable to losing votes due to their ever-increasing hardline conservatism at both federal and state level, as well as issues like the Libs scuttling laws to control excessive landclearing (something the old Liberal Party actually supported in the days when they were separate to the Nationals), rampant cheerleading for Adani and new coal mines and coal fired powerstations, blanket opposition to the abortion law reform and the almost certain favouring of One Nation with preferences in electorates in other parts of the state.
As the Labor incumbent in the old Mount Coot-tha part of the seat abandoned ship within a day of the new boundaries being announced, it is also hard to see Labor hanging on to its vote or picking up as many disaffected LNP voters as it otherwise might have.
Definitely a live option for the Greens to win, and one the party is targeting.
This is probably the best chance for the Greens. Labor would still be favoured to outpoll them but in this day and age anything could happen.
The recent loss of Larissa Waters could result in a lack of air time as she was in effect the Queensland Greens de facto leader.
As for the use of tactics, Adani could well play into the Greens hands here, and I imagine that it should work well in McConnel, South Brisbane and Miller.
It’s a pity there is no extant knowledge of Liberal voters preference discipline. Here’s hoping The Greens step up this time and take Scrutineering seriously.
Either LNP or Greens will win this one. Steven Miles pulling out makes me think Labor have conceded the seat and won’t be putting in many resources.
To win the Greens need to be changing the votes of small-l Liberals. Greens have successfully done that before in Prahran. Queensland seems to be focusing on a more traditional left wing campaign to take votes off Labor, but it could be different on a local level.
The result will depend upon the whims of One Nation voters if ON should run a candidate in Maiwar. ON will predominantly weaken the LNP. If half their preferences go to Labor, Labor should be home and hosed with Green preferences.
One Nation would struggle to register above 1000 votes in this seat surely? Heck I’d got as far as to say they’d be lucky to pull a few hundred? These suburbs aren’t exactly the people who resonate with One Nation. Parties like One Nation, people like Donald Trump in America, don’t do well with inner capital city types. It’s just the reality, demographics and history back that up.
I’d be very surprised if One Nation stood a candidate here.
I have been volunteering for Michael Berkman, the Greens candidate here.
I would be very surprised if Labor outpoll the Greens, Adani is the most common issue raise at the door especially in the former Mt Coot-tha half of the electorate (2nd highest issue is over-development). Most traditional LNP voters also know the Adani mine is a scam.
I think both the Green vote and perhaps the One Nation could actually be underestimated here, greens most likely to gain Maiwar over South Brisbane Though.
I just can’t see One Nation doing much more than a few hundred votes here if that, just can’t see it.
Ballot draw concluded:
1. Michael Berkman (Greens)
2. Anita Diamond (Independent)
3. Ali King (Labor)
4. Scott Emerson (Liberal National)
http://www.theaustralian.com.au/national-affairs/queensland-election/queensland-election-green-tide-puts-scott-emerson-in-danger/news-story/94e46de11bc24fe79a0f8015a7c0e42e
Essential poll puts the primaries at
LNP 41
GRN 24
ALP 23
Undecided 11
Greens would need 87% flow from Labor to win (ignoring undecideds).
Looks like it’s going to come down to the wire. I’ve said for a while now that I think Maiwar is the bellwhether seat between a LNP/PHON government and an ALP/GRN one.
Numbers like that pretty much write the scare campaign against preferential voting in places that don’t already have it (which is probably why the Oz printed it).
Only just in second place (which could change if the undecided folk just wish they had a Pauline or a Katter to vote for), in a state which is trying out CPV for the first time, with a 17% gap between 1st and 2nd… I wish the Greens luck. They’ll need it.
ON these numbers it looks like aGReen win with results being LNP 49.113
Greens 50.787
ASsumoptions made to come with thsese figures 11% undecided flowing to 3 other parties in same proportion as currently decided votes
90% of ALP voters following ALP HTV and 10% flowing to LNP.
Therefore if anything these assumptions will possibly favor the LNP because the undecided are unlikely to be wavering between Green and LNP rather between ALP and Green or ALP and LNP Consequently Scott Emmerson can pack his bags. There is an outside chance that ALP will beat Greens but I think not.
Greens would be bottom of my ballot paper therefore this prediction is not one based on wishful thinking.
Andrew Jackson
apjackson@hotkey.net.au
I think the Greens have a better chance here than anywhere else, In south Brisbane they aren’t getting LNP preferences and so will struggle, McConnel is a 3 horse race, and such here they have a good chance given the LNP vote is below 50%. As there will be a strong flow of preferences between Labor and the Greens.
I think the Greens will edge Labor on primaries hete by 2 or 3%, but LNP retain due to hoe far they will be in front before preferences. I think Emerson retains most of the estimated primary. Much closer to 47 than 41.
LNP retain JUST.
greens best chance