ALP 6.4%
Incumbent MP
MacAlister is a new seat.
Geography
Brisbane. MacAlister covers suburbs on the south-eastern fringe of Brisbane, including Windaroo, Beenleigh, Holmview, Eagleby, Cornubia and Carbrook.
Redistribution
MacAlister is a new seat, created out of parts of Albert, Coomera, Redlands, Springwood and Waterford.
History
MacAlister was created out of parts of five seats.
The seat of Coomera was created in 2009 and has always been held by the LNP.
Labor lost the seat of Redlands to the LNP in 2009, and has not won it back.
Labor lost the seats of Albert, Waterford and Springwood in 2012, and won back Waterford and Springwood in 2015.
Candidates
- Gabi Nehring (Greens)
- Ben Musgrave (Civil Liberties, Consumer Rights, No-Tolls)
- Greg Bradley (Independent)
- Judi van Manen (Liberal National)
- Hetty Johnston (Independent)
- Janelle Clancy (Independent)
- Melissa McMahon (Labor)
Assessment
MacAlister is a very marginal seat. Labor will not benefit from the personal vote of a first-term incumbent, unlike most of their marginal seats.
2015 election result
| Party | % |
| Labor | 43.2 |
| Liberal National | 38.8 |
| Greens | 7.5 |
| Palmer United Party | 5.4 |
| Independents | 2.7 |
| Family First | 2.5 |
2015 two-party-preferred result
| Party | % |
| Labor | 56.4 |
| Liberal National | 43.6 |
Booth breakdown
Booths in MacAlister have been divided into three areas: central, north and south.
The ALP won a majority of the two-party-preferred vote in two out of three areas, ranging from 55.8% in the south to 64% in the centre. The LNP won 56.5% in the north, which makes up the smallest proportion of the seat’s population.
| Voter group | ALP 2PP % | Total votes | % of votes |
| Central | 63.9 | 7,818 | 29.0 |
| South | 55.8 | 6,724 | 25.0 |
| North | 43.5 | 3,581 | 13.3 |
| Other votes | 50.7 | 8,814 | 32.7 |
Two-party-preferred in MacAlister at the 2015 QLD state election
Note the LNP candidate is the wife of the lical federal MP which gives name recognition.
Child protection campaigner Hetty Johnston is running as an inpedendent in Macalister (http://www.news.com.au/national/breaking-news/bravehearts-founder-joins-qld-poll-race/news-story/2f44fa3e99dd8b5f7578efeb3da5de80)
She could take a bunch of the vote from both Labor and the LNP. Especially if she runs a high profile campaign. If she gets into the top 2 she would likely win because she will get preferences from both Labor and the LNP.
I’m installing Hetty as the favouirte here and what a blessing she would be in Qld parliament. Hope she wins it.
Nope Labor would be the favorite to win MacAlister. LNP MP Mark Boothman will be contesting the new seat of Theodore so there will be no incumbency advantage for the LNP.
Apparently their is a reasonable One Nation vote in this seat but not enough to be a threat.
Labor is tracking on sportsbet in this seat at $1.10 as firm favorites.
Wasn’t Johnston a Family First / Mrs Lovejoy type? Be careful what you wish for.
She ran for the senate in 2004, got a bit of hype but 0.7% of the vote. Unless something’s changed since then, nope.
I am running as an independent in this seat. My page, for those interested is:
https://www.facebook.com/GregBradley.AWP/
Hetty Johnston will inject some needed realism and transparency into the Parliament. This candidate has proven her commitment to people – things that really do matter.
ALP retain
My money is on Hetty taking it out with LNP and all the other minor party preferences. This will be a big blow to Labor
Labor retain.
I cant see Hetty’s primary being good enough here, ALP retain.