ALP 5.9%
Incumbent MP
Linus Power, since 2015.
Geography
South-East Queensland. The seat of Logan covers a series of suburbs in Logan City, specifically Regents Park, Heritage Park, Park Ridge, Munruben, Logan Village, Jimboomba, Yarrabilba and Wolffdene.
Redistribution
Logan shifted south, losing Browns Plains to Algester and neighbouring areas to Woodridge. Logan also lost an area around Undullah at the south-western corner to the seat of Jordan, and gained areas at its eastern edge from Albert and areas at its southern edge from Beaudesert. These areas included Jimboomba, Yarrabilba and Wolffdene. These changes cut the Labor margin from 10.8% to 6.3%.
History
The seat of Logan was first created in 1873. It was abolished in 1950, restored in 1960, abolished again in 1972, and restored finally in 1986. It has been held by ALP members since 1969, with the exception of one term from 2012 to 2015.
When Logan was restored in 1986, Wayne Goss won the seat for the ALP. He had won the seat of Salisbury in 1983.
Goss became Leader of the Opposition in 1988 and in 1989 led the ALP to victory, becoming Premier of Queensland.
He was re-elected in 1992 and won another term by a slim margin in 1995. The ALP won a one-seat majority at the 1995 election, and lost this majority when the result in Mundingburra was overturned and the Liberal Party won the ensuing by-election in 1996. This resulted in the Goss government losing power.
Goss resigned as ALP leader and returned to the backbench. He retired in 1998.
John Mickel won Logan in 1998. He was appointed to the ministry in 2004 and served as a minister until 2009. He served as Speaker of the Legislative Assembly from 2009 until his retirement in 2012.
In 2012, Liberal National Party candidate Michael Pucci defeated Labor candidate Linus Power with an 18.7% swing. Power came back and won the seat in 2015.
Candidates
- Gloria Vicario (Liberal National)
- Liam Jenkinson (Greens)
- Scott Bannan (One Nation)
- Danielle Cox (Independent)
- Linus Power (Labor)
- Daniel Murphy (Independent)
Assessment
Logan will likely remain in Labor hands.
2015 election result
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing | Redist |
| Linus Power | Labor | 13,839 | 51.7 | +18.4 | 45.7 |
| Michael Pucci | Liberal National | 9,267 | 34.6 | -6.4 | 37.6 |
| Kim Southwood | Greens | 1,654 | 6.2 | +0.8 | 6.8 |
| David Pellowe | Family First | 1,098 | 4.1 | +4.1 | 2.8 |
| Daniel Murphy | Independent | 523 | 2.0 | +2.0 | 1.1 |
| Peter Ervik | Independent | 393 | 1.5 | +1.5 | 0.8 |
| Palmer United Party | 2.4 | ||||
| One Nation | 1.8 | ||||
| Others | 0.8 | ||||
| Informal | 859 | 3.1 |
2015 two-party-preferred result
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing | Redist |
| Linus Power | Labor | 15,346 | 60.8 | +15.6 | 55.9 |
| Michael Pucci | Liberal National | 9,884 | 39.2 | -15.6 | 44.1 |
| Exhausted | 1,544 | 5.8 |
Booth breakdown
Booths in Logan have been divided into three areas: central, north and south.
The ALP won a majority of the two-party-preferred vote in all three areas, ranging from 52% in the south to 62% in the north.
| Voter group | ALP 2PP % | Total votes | % of votes |
| North | 62.2 | 9,927 | 34.9 |
| South | 52.0 | 5,406 | 19.0 |
| Central | 53.5 | 4,793 | 16.8 |
| Other votes | 53.4 | 8,343 | 29.3 |
Two-party-preferred in Logan at the 2015 QLD state election
This is the seat that some in One Nation are touting as a chance after the re-distribution. They may gain a good vote but really. Also without the Australian Conservatives running and a host of other conservative minors they will have to rely on their vote alone to get ahead of the ALP or the LNP and hope preferences flow their way. Polling is showing that 75% of One Nation votes are flowing to the LNP and even with that occurring the ALP should still retain this one.
Media this week is commonly referring to Logan as one of the 8 or 10 main One Nation targets. I also think it’s a bit of a stretch, but interesting none the less.
Steve Dickson just on PM Live saying one nation WILL win this and Capalaba. He should worry about his own seat of Buderim which he won’t win.
If, and its a big if, One Nation is going to win a seat in Greater Brisbane, this would have to be one of their best chances. Its the type of lower-income outer suburban seat where they have a chance of outpolling the LNP, but at the same time its not that safe for the ALP.
I don’t know what creates the optimism for ON in Logan and Capalaba. Never say never but I highly doubt they are a serious chance.
BJA, you know what creates optimism… thousands of people say they have had enough and really like what the Logan PHON candidate has to say….
Well the Courier Mail commissioned Galaxy poll has
ALP 35
ON 33
LNP 20
2PP of 52-48, ALP defeating ON
A remarkable finding considering this was ON’s 27th best seat from the 2016 election. Seems to be a seat specific swing though, if not Labor would stand to lose half a dozen seats to ON.
Labor still wins on those numbers but that’s still scary for a safe labor seat
ON will win the seat easily if the primaries are as indicated in the Galaxy poll. I wouldn’t put much faith in the TPP figures as these are asking LNP voters their 2nd preferences. On the day many will just follow the HTV and not make a conscious preferencing decision. There would also be a “shyness” effect, with some of these voters not wanting to admit even a preference vote for ON.
I dismissed such ON support here but I guess that was premature! I think this is isolated from the rest of the state though
FtB, on these new boundaries, Logan is not really a safe Labor seat anymore. Its margin has basically been halved, and it takes in some pretty conservative, ON-friendly areas in the south.
Logan is still safe for Labor because the LNP how to vote cards will preference Labor above PHON: https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2017/nov/11/queensland-election-lnp-preferences-one-nation-before-labor-in-50-seats
@ John the LNP are putting One Nation above Labor, Labor have been whinging about it all weekend.
Not in Logan.
They are preferencing Labor above ON in a handful of seats. Logan is one of those seats.
What other seats are Labor above One Nation Ben?
There’s a Guardian story that lists them all.
Surprised PHON don’t get Michael Pucci to run here.
BEn
YOu are correct about LNP placing AShby-Hnason candidate below ALP in this seat .
LNP Preferences in this seat according to the HTV that I picked up yesterday are:
LNP 1
Greens 6
ON 5
INd (cox)3
ALP 4
INd (murphy) 2
Without knowing the details of sundry Independents state wide this would be one seat where LNP Preference ‘seem to have been determined by principle rather than self interest.
ALP retain
PHON gain, thanks to LNP running third. Real upset for Labor
Labor retain but not without a dam good scare.
I think Labor has momementum in tje final days and Pauline’s campaign has not gained her ground. Labor retain witj smaller primary.
I think Labor has momementum in the final days and Pauline’s campaign has not gained her ground. Labor retain with smaller primary.